1. Inequalities in the older population: Evidence from ELSA James Banks, Carl Emmerson, Alastair Muriel and Gemma Tetlow 18 th November 2008

2. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 ELSA and inequalities in the older population Multidimensional outcomes… Economic, social, biological, psychological, environmental … and key dimensions of capabilities e.g. Life; Bodily health, Bodily integrity; Senses, imagination and thought; Emotion; Practical reason; Affiliation; Other species; Play; Control over ones environment (Nussbaum, 2000) … over time –6-10 years of panel data now available –Early life circumstances, including SES and geography –Selected life-histories, including employment and housing

3. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 ELSA and inequalities in the older population Strengths –Multidimensionality means can measure correlation between dimensions Breadth versus depth of poverty and inequalities Targeting –Subjective and objective measures of the same thing –Link to mortality records (even for non-responders) –Links to admin records, e.g earnings history, benefit take-up Weaknesses –Older population only –Only available since 2002

4. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Overarching framework: A life-course approach to inequalities in the older population Short-medium term horizons –Address current pensioner inequalities –Alleviation of immediate pressures Address current employment/disability of older workers Quality of life and wellbeing more generally Health care and social services Medium-long term horizons –Address the causes of poor health, disability, social exclusion and material poverty in the elderly Very long term horizons –The long shadow of early life circumstances Considering past trends in returns to education, within-pensioner inequalities may well increase over next 20 years

5. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Simulating pensioner income to 2017–18 Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

6. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Net income distribution: 2003 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline 22% Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

7. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2004 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

8. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2005 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

9. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2006 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

10. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2007 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

11. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2008 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

12. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2009 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

13. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2010 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

14. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2011 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

15. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2012 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

16. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2013 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

17. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2014 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

18. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2015 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

19. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2016 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

20. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2017 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline 5% Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

21. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 2017 Note: net incomes shown under White Paper policy baseline 19% Source: Brewer, et al (2007).

22. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Correlation between pension wealth and non-pension wealth Total pension wealth Correlation between pension wealth and non- pension wealth Source: Banks, Emmerson, Oldfield and Tetlow (2005).

23. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Distribution of predicted retirement resources Note: Assumes baseline (probabilistic) likelihood of working to SPA. Source: Banks, Emmerson, Oldfield and Tetlow (2005).

24. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Health and wealth at older ages Source: Banks et al (2005) calculations from 2002 ELSA, Individuals aged 50 to SPA

25. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Survival after wave 1 (months) by wealth quintile; age adjusted Source: Nazroo, Zaniotto and Gjonca (2008), in Banks et al (2008), ELSA wave 3 report. Male Female

26. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Odds for 5-year mortality after wave 1 Hazard ratio95% cip-value Separated/Divorced1.39[1.11,1.74]<0.001 Widowed1.18[1.02,1.37]<0.001 Never Married1.49[1.18,1.89]<0.001 Wealth quintile 41.03[0.82,1.31]0.775 Wealth quintile 31.15[0.92,1.45]0.223 Wealth quintile 21.46[1.17,1.82]<0.001 Wealth quintile 11.56[1.24,1.95]<0.001 Educ: Intermediate0.91[0.70,1.18]0.488 Educ: No qualifications0.90[0.68,1.18]0.455 Class: Intermediate1.06[0.88,1.28]0.559 Class: Routine/manual1.16[0.98,1.38]0.090 Additional controls not reported: Sex, age (5-year dummies), Physical activity, Smoking, drinking Source: Nazroo, Zaniotto and Gjonca (2008), in Banks et al (2008), ELSA wave 3 report. Reference group: 50-54 yr old, male, non-smoker; high physical activity, non-drinker, highest wealth quintile, education: degree, class: managerial/professional

27. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Per cent without any CVD-related disease by age-specific wealth quintile, sex and age Angina, myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure heart murmur, abnormal heart rhythm, diabetes Source: Breeze et al (2006), in Banks et al (2006), ELSA wave 2 report.

28. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Per cent without any of six selected chronic physical diseases by age-specific wealth quintile, sex and age Source: Breeze et al (2006), in Banks et al (2006), ELSA wave 2 report. Chronic lung disease, asthma, arthritis, osteoporosis, cancer (excl. primary skin cancer), Parkinsons disease

29. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Incidence of at least one major condition between 2002 and 2004 by gender and age-specific wealth quintile in 2002 Source: Breeze et al (2006), in Banks et al (2006), ELSA wave 2 report.

30. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Perceptions of work disability by wealth quintile e.g. Geoffrey suffers from back pain that causes stiffness in his back especially at work, but it is relieved with low doses of medication. He does not have any pains other than this general discomfort. How much is Geoffrey limited in the kind or amount of work he could do? Quintile of total non-pension wealth Source: Banks and Tetlow (2008), in Banks et al (2008), ELSA wave 3 report.

31. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Odds of work disability by wealth quintile Source: Banks and Tetlow (2008), in Banks et al (2008), ELSA wave 3 report.

32. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Probability of work disability onset; by work status and wealth Percentage who experience the onset of a work disability between waves 2 and 3 Source: Banks and Tetlow (2008), in Banks et al (2008), ELSA wave 3 report.

33. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Average annual real earnings growth over ten years Excludes those with earnings truncated at the UEL in either year and those with no earnings above LEL in either year Data removed awaiting approval for external dissemination

34. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 1975 Earnings mobility: Men aged 23–28 in 1975, transitions from 1975 to 1995 Data removed awaiting approval for external dissemination

35. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Ongoing ELSA work Some analysis already underway: –Late life consequences of previous employment/earnings differences –Health and mortality differences and links to education/income/wealth –Further understanding of disability and employment prior to SPA Other possible issues: –More work on multi-dimensional inequalities –Link between objective inequalities and subjective well-being measures –Within-household spillovers, e.g. caring –Household versus individual financial inequalities –Pensioner specific equivalence scales

36. Inequalities in the older population: Evidence from ELSA James Banks, Carl Emmerson, Alastair Muriel and Gemma Tetlow 18 th November 2008

37. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008 Well-being and quality of life (GHQ and CASP) Factors associated with self-reported well-being/quality of life: Income (+) Physical functioning (+) Being above retirement age (+) Marital status: –Women in couples report highest quality of life... –... but men in couples report highest level of well-being. –Divorced/separated/widowed individuals report lowest quality of life –(It is not better to have loved and lost...?) Source: Emmerson and Muriel (2008), in Banks et al (2008), ELSA wave 3 report.