1. Overview of Proposed Climate Sensitivity Research

2. (Serreze et al., Climatic Change, 2000) High Latitude Temperature Trends (1966-1995) Annual data °C per decade

3. Courtesy of G. Juday

4. June-August Water Deficits in Alaska Oechel et al. 2000. Nature

5. Courtesy of G. Juday

7. Date of leaf-out in Fairbanks (Chena Ridge) 1974-1998 Data courtesy of J. Anderson

8. Overview of Proposed Climate Sensitivity Research Hypothesis: The effects of climate change on boreal ecosystem processes are primarily indirect, acting through temperature and precipitation effects on other environmental parameters. The most important of these indirect effects differ among landscape units, with south-facing uplands being most responsive to summer drought (conifers) and season length (deciduous), north-facing uplands to early-winter soil temperature, wetlands to water table height, and active floodplains to river height, which correlates positively with summer temperature and glacial melt.

9. Proposed Climate Sensitivity Tasks Question 1. How has climate change altered the physical environment of the BNZ LTER site and how have different stand types (conifer vs. deciduous; upland vs. floodplain vs. wetland) differed in their responses to the direct and indirect effects of summer warming? C1 - Conduct a retrospective analysis of the relationship of litterfall, diameter increment, and seed production to thaw date, summer air temperature, growing degree days, daily temperature maxima and minima, summer soil temperature and moisture, early-winter soil temperature, and precipitation. (McGuire, J. Hollingsworth) C2 - Use tree-ring analysis to assess the sensitivity of tree-ring width to climatic variation. (Juday, Lloyd) C3 - Document the effects of climate variability, vegetation type, and predation on herbivore abundance. (Kielland, Werner, Hanley) C4 - Manipulate soil moisture to assess its effects on NPP and other ecosystem processes. (Yarie, Turetsky, Harden, McGuire, Valentine)

10. Proposed Climate Sensitivity Tasks Question 2. How does winter warming influence ecosystem processes in Alaska’s boreal forest? C5 - Document the relative importance of winter and summer processes through observations and field experiments. (Kielland, Turetsky, Harden, McGuire)

11. Synthesis of Climate Sensitivity Motivational Talks (this morning) Breakout Groups (this afternoon) Summarized Plan of Action (tomorrow morning)

12. Synthesis of Climate Sensitivity Motivational Talks (this morning) 1. Paleo Perspectives – Andi Lloyd 2. Growing Season Changes – Eugenie Euskirchen 3. Summer Drought – John Yarie 4. Winter Ecology – Knut Kielland Breakout Groups (this afternoon) Summarized Plan of Action (tomorrow morning)

13. Synthesis of Climate Sensitivity Motivational Talks (this morning) Breakout Groups (this afternoon) 1. How do we achieve more effective integration? 2. What product(s) should be generated by the synthesis? 3. How should we organize monthly meetings this year? Summarized Plan of Action (tomorrow morning)

14. Charge to Breakout Groups How do we achieve more effective integration? 1. Among climate sensitivity tasks 2. With tasks in successional and threshold themes 3. With the synthesis tasks 4. Across the LTER Network What product(s) should be generated by the synthesis? 1. BioScience Paper? 2. Special issue of a journal? Identify three or more climate sensitivity talks for the monthly meetings (list of titles and speakers).

15. Table 6. Major activities of the BNZ research program, showing ongoing research (black) and new research initiatives (red). Task numbers are in parenthesis. Climate sensitivity Succession Thresholds Drivers Met stations (C1) Exptl. Burn (S2) Thermokarst (S3) Rain exclusion (C4) Fire record analysis (S2) Fire severity (S2, T2) Snowmelt exclusion (C4) 2004 fire monitoring (S2) Hydrologic change (T1) Winter warming (C4) Hydrologic synthesis (S1) Watertable manipula. (C4) Biotic Biomass & NPP (C1) Stand-age maps (S2) Disease & insect response Tree rings (C2) Species effects (S5) impacts (T3) Insect monitoring (C3) Invasive species (S5) Hare & moose monitor (C3) Herbivore exclosures (S6) Biogeochem. monitor (C1) Plant & animal diversity (C1) Seasonal biogeochem. (C5) Fungal diversity (S7) Landscape Community mapping (I/S2) Succession models (S4) Watershed proc. (I/S1) response Wetland transects (C1) Biogeochem models (I/S3) Threshold model. (I/S4) Societal Ecosyst. service synth. (I/S5) Ecosyst. service model (I/S3) impacts Synthesis focus (I/S6) Climate feedbacks (I/S3)

16. Charge to Breakout Groups How do we achieve more effective integration? 1. Among climate sensitivity tasks 2. With tasks in successional and threshold themes 3. With the synthesis tasks 4. *Across the LTER Network *”ongoing:trends” project database for 4 lters What product(s) should be generated by the synthesis? 1. BioScience Paper? 2. Special issue of a journal? Identify three or more climate sensitivity Questions and Topics for talks for the monthly meetings (list of titles and speakers).

17. Winter measurements : hourly where logging 4 upland 5 floodplain 8 wetland Soil temp: 0, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 Soil moist: 5, 10, 20, 50 PAR (spotty during snow cover) Air Temp/Rh Rainfall in summer Snow Stakes Main Stations 1 upland 1 cpcrw upland 1 floodplain All above plus: Snow water equiv. 3m, 10m wind Pyranomter (spotty) Barometric pressure Snow Depth Summer : Rainfall and Evaporation Veg Plots

18. Questions: Do freeze-thaw cycles relate to snow depth? Does snow depth and winter characteristics define / influence length of growing season? Vitality Phenology micbrobial processes N cycling

19. Define, standarding and measure growing season length Define winter parameters and relate them to biogechemistry wildlife Net Primary Production Determine the role of temperature averages and temperature variability in affecting: phenology biogechemistry wildlife Net Primary Production

20. Immediate Synthetic Product Time trends in Daily average snow depth Monthly average snow depth First occurrence of snow Cummulative water and cummulative snow depth through season Heat flux to/from soil Variance of soil temperatures »20 cm ; 5 cm Correlation matrix Correlation with biomass, wood increment, etc

21. Hypotheses High ice early in season shortens seasonal NPP by delaying or comprimizing spring onset High snow and low ice lengthen season owing to early onset

22. Breakout Groups Direct Responses to Summer Warming Indirect Responses to Summer Warming Winter Warming/Changes in Growing Season