1. James Samuel National Facilitator Transition Towns NZ Aotearoa www.transitiontowns.org.nz Peak oil, climate change and transition towns

2. Agenda Peak Oil and its effects Climate Change (brief)‏ Responses at different levels –global, national, local, personal PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” What is a transition town Examples and achievements so far Q&A discussion

3. Peak Oil – fields, regions, world we’ll never “run out” of oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil oil underpins –industrial development –agriculture –economics –population about ½ way through it… it’s going to decline

4. Peak Oil – discovery Before you extract it, you have to find it

5. Peak Oil – official numbers EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration IEA - International Energy Agency

6. Peak Oil – what’s it like? Terminal decline Demand destruction Examples: –1990s: North Korea –1990s: Cuba –2000: UK fuel crisis –Now: Poor countries

7. Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor)‏ Asia –Nepal –Pakistan –Bangladesh –Sri Lanka –Philippines –China –India –Vietnam Africa –Uganda –Zimbabwe –Ghana –Nigeria –Senegal –Kenya –Gambia –Philippines Americas –Argentina –Nicaragua –Chile –Costa Rica –Dominican Republic Middle East –Iraq –Iran

8. Climate Change the end of the debate Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temp's since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temp's since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: Upsala Glacier, Argentina

9. Climate Change weather extremes

10. Fossil Fuels, Carbon, and Economic Growth

11. What can be done? Global –Oil Depletion Protocol –Contraction and Convergence –Kyoto National –TEQs (energy rationing)‏ Community –Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural Personal –“The work that reconnects” –Lessons from addiction counselling

12. Can we respond? Going up the energy slope, we used –ingenuity –creativity –adaptability –cooperation Going back down… –if we’re early enough –if we’re cooperative –the future could be a whole lot better…

13. What’s stopping us? Myths of today –Technology will solve all our problems –There is no alternative –Civilisation is the pinnacle of human achievement –Living standards are rising –New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner –Humans are selfish and greedy by nature –The market will solve it If our water comes from a tap, and our food comes from a supermarket –We will defend the systems which sustain us

14. Where are we going? Industrial Ascent - Energy & Resource Use- Energy & Resource Use - Population - Pollution- Pollution Peak Energy? Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Post Mad Max Collapse Great Grand Children Agriculture 10.000yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby Boom Pre-industrial culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent (Permaculture)‏

15. Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? 43 Towns at last count

16. How are they organising? Transition Model Understanding: PO + CC = The end of “business as usual” Adaptability, Creativity NOW 7 Buts 12 Steps Transition Network

17. Peak Oil & Climate Change Climate Change mitigations must: reduce emissions (reduce oil usage)‏ Peak Oil mitigations must: build local resilience Which means doing it closer to home - re-localisation consumption production work play

18. Our choice… We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future, whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather be engulfed by it.