1. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Summary/Future 2008200720102009 Re-anal + hind-casts 2011 Evaluation + Applications Development Evaluation and Applications Development (Coupled model, assimilation, ensemble gen, qc, etc) Re-analysis and hind-casts Eval + applications Re-analysis and hind-casts POAMA-1.5 POAMA-2 (new initialisation + BAM+ACOM2+increased res+…) POAMA-3 (Basic ACCESS coupled model + basic coupled assimilation+…) Development (Coupled model, assimilation, ensemble gen, etc) POAMA-4 (Improved ACCESS system)

2. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology P15b P15a P1 Persistence Produced by Guomin Wang NINO 3 (East Pacific) SSTA forecasts P15b P15a P1 Persistence Indian Ocean SST Dipole Mode Index

3. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 NINO-3 correlation Comparison with other centres Based on 5-member ensemble IOD

4. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology SON Rainfall 1982-2006 from POAMA-1.5 POAMA vs Climatology NCC operational vs Climo POAMA vs NCC Brier Skill Score percentage improvement Forecast for first season BUT Skill disappears after first season Too emphatic ?

5. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 1997 SON POAMA lt 0 2002 SON POAMA lt 0 1997 SON Obs 2002 SON Obs BUT Skill disappears after first season

6. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 1997 OBS 2002 POAMA at 3 months lead 1997 2002 1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts

7. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Ensemble OI (Oke et al 2005) Covariances from ensemble spread (3D multi-variate- time evolving) PEODAS POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System ASSIM Perturbed forcing (Alves and Robert 2005) ASSIM Observations Compress Ensemble Nudge to central analysis

8. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Temperature error - comparison with TAO and ECMWF Temperature Comparison with TAO Mooring at 140W

9. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Surface currents in the Indian Ocean ECMWF Better due to Altimeter ? Correlation of surface U with OSCAR (www.oscar.noaa.gov) PEODAS ECMWF

10. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology POAMA-2 System built and running hind-casts (ready mid 2009) Improvements: New Pseudo Ensemble Kalman Filter for ocean data assimilation (PEODAS) Ensemble generation based on assimilation ensemble Increased atmospheric resolution (T63) Improved physics - reduced tropical SST bias Built in SST bias correction scheme

11. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Future: POAMA-3 Aiming for 2011 Improvements: Based on UKMO UM atmospheric model and CABLE land surface New ocean model (AusCOM/MOM4) with increased resolution Greenhouse gases Coupled assimilation (extension of existing PEODAS to coupled model, but assimilated atmospheric data will be reanalyses) Assimilation of altimeter and SST (?) Ocean and atmospheric perturbations (based on PEODAS)