Presentation on theme: "The Single European Market (SEM). Contents Origins of the Single Market Expected benefits of the CM Dynamic Effects of the Single Market Reassessment."— Presentation transcript:
Contents Origins of the Single Market Expected benefits of the CM Dynamic Effects of the Single Market Reassessment of the Single Market Latest developments
Origins Article 3, Treaty of Rome: the elimination, as between member states, of customs duties and quantitative restrictions on the import and export of goods, and all other measures having equivalent effect; the abolition as between member states, of obstacles to freedom of movement for persons, services and capital
programme to create a Common Market (CM) Initial date proposed: 1969 Free trade but restrictions to capital movements + mobility barriers Official beginning: 1 st January 1993 Origins…
1978: the Cassis de Dijon case –The ECJ ruled that Germany could not ban the importing of Cassis de Dijon on the grounds that it did not conform to German rules governing the sale of alcohol –It meant mutual recognition of each others rules and regulations 1979: the introduction of the European Monetary System (EMS)
Origins… 1983 –The European Roundtable of Industrialists (ERT): 46 Industrial leaders propose CM plan including: Trade facilitation Opening public procurement Harmonisation of technical standards Fiscal harmonisation
Origins… 1983 –Stuttgart Summit recognised that the failure to establish a CM had resulted in major problems for EC companies. 1985 –White Paper Completing the Internal Market Objective: The creation of a CM by end of 1992
Origin… 1987 The Single European Act –Amended the Treaty of Rome to allow majority voting in issues of the Single Market –Article 13: The internal market shall comprise an area without internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital is ensured in accordance with the provision of this Treaty
Freedoms of movement Free movement of goods Free movement of factors: –Capital –Labour Welfare increase principle the same in all cases
Free Movement of Labour Once labour barriers are reduced, labour will move from low to high wage countries. Wages in the former will tend to rise due to a reduced supply of labour, while in the latter they will tend to fall due to a rising labour supply, i.e. wage equalisation. –But: cultural/language barriers in EU
Free Movement of Capital If the rate of return on investment is higher in one country than in another, investment funds will tend to move to the latter until the rate is equalised. –But, the capital flows can be influenced by uncertainty and different monetary and exchange rate policies. –The establishment of EMU with fixed exchange and interest rates should remove such a distortion.
The Single European Act Programme towards a larger market without frontiers –Economic and social cohesion –Common policy on technological/scientific development –EMS strengthening –European social dimension –Coordinated environment protection
Action focus for SEM The elimination between EC states of: Physical Technical Fiscal barriers New EC approach: approximation instead of standardization the removal of internal frontiers a binding timetable
Allocation effects revisited Real world – perfect competition vs. imperfect competition –understand why gains from customs union not too high –Fact: Intra-EU trade is 70-80% intra- industry, thus not driven by comparative advantage. –We need models with imperfect competition.
Transaction costs and CMs Markets influenced by transaction costs of firms Factors influencing the size of transaction costs: –Legal and regulatory framework –Macroeconomic policy framework –Fragmentation of markets
Understanding the European market Observation –segmented markets, with prices independent across countries –policies that raise cost of entering specific market (e.g. licensing)
Understanding the European market Evidence for fragmentation? Large variation in average prices –for consumer goods 15.2% around mean –telephone and telegram 50% around mean Conclusion? –Too little competition, too many firms operating at inefficient level
Effects of market integration Intensified competition, which Reduces firms monopoly power Lower prices Inefficient firms exiting Allows for more products to be consumed Scale reduces costs of production
Effects of market integration… In sum: Integration may turn previously segmented markets in to a single integrated market
Competition effects of SEM Barriers to go by end 1992: Cost increasing barriers –Fiscal barriers (taxes and subsidies) –Quantitative barriers (quotas on steel) –Different norms and technical regulations –Real costs of trade (border checks, at 1.7% of value of intra-EU trade)
Competition effects of SEM Market entry restrictions –Protectionist public procurement –Different service regulation (banking; insurance) –Capital controls (still in 8 out of 12 countries) –Different legal frameworks
The Cecchini Report Study carried out for the European Commission to estimate result of completion of internal market –A rosy view? Costs of integration?
The Cecchini Report A 4 stage assessment of benefits from: Removing barriers to trade (e.g. frontier controls) Removing technical barriers The creation of scale economies Reducing X-inefficiency and monopoly power
Estimates of the benefits of removing barriers to create the SEM _______________________________________________________ ECU (billion) as % of GDP of the EC _______________________________________________________ (a)(b)(a)(b) Barriers affecting890.20.3 trade (customs) Barriers affecting57712.02.4 production (subsidies) Barriers affecting the60612.02.1 reaping of economies of scale (national procurement)
_______________________________________________________ ECU (billion) as % of GDP of the EC _______________________________________________________ (a)(b)(a)(b) Barriers which46461.61.6 prevent competition (subsidies, technical specifications) Total benefits1711875.86.4 Note: (a) low estimate (b) high estimate based on Cecchini (1988) and Emerson (1988) Estimates of the benefits of removing barriers to create the SEM
Benefits revisited Improved supply-side of the EC economy: –higher aggregate demand by increasing real purchasing power –increased investment –improved competitiveness of EC relative to rest of the world
Benefits Improvements in public sector budgets: –reduction in cost of public procurement –growth of GDP and tax revenue –more public expenditure and reduced unemployment through restructuring
Estimated macro-economic benefits of creating the SEM GDP (%) Prices (%)Employment External Balance (millions) (%) of GDP + 4.5 - 6.1 + 1.8 + 1.0 Time scale 6 + years from full implementation of programme (1.1.93) Estimates subject to a margin of error +/- 30%
Omissions of Report Location of activities: –Peripheral location and low productivity trap Difficult to face higher competition Income redistribution: –Pressure on wages through competition need for extra social provisions
Omissions of Report… Institutional setting: –Need for policies on social issues - for even distribution of benefits Effects on outside world –Positive growth versus protectionism
Dynamic Effects of SEM Efficiency increase –then: boost in savings and investment Static gain in GDP: from 1992 + Expanded through continuous increase in annual growth rate Baldwin estimation: extra 0.2-0.9% per annum (so far: about 0.1%) on top of static effects
Dynamic Effects of Single Market Translation into medium term effect: –Dynamic effects add 30% to 100% to static effect Reality: –New evaluation needed –Reasons: Need to distinguish sector effects The distinction between what happened and what would be without Single Market Political changes: e.g. German unification Long term effects!?
Dynamic Effect of Single European Market Long term: growth of product per worker is continuing –Increasing returns to reproducible factors (explosive growth) –Constant returns to reproducible factors (ongoing growth) Thus: Integration can have permanent growth effect
SEM – A 1996 Review by the Commission Effect of frontier control removal –need of new taxation system Technical regulations –slow acceptance of mutual recognition Public procurement –lack of European standards and…success
SEM – A 1996 Review by the Commission Accumulation effect: –Estimated at 1.1-1.5% of GDP –Extra 300,000-900,000 extra jobs Location effects –Convergence of states But: geography, institutions, quality, technology matter!
10 years anniversary of SEM New Review by Commission in 2002 –Effects of SEM between 1992-2002: GDP: 1.8% higher (164.5bn Euro higher) Employment: 1.46% higher (2.5 million extra jobs) FDI: intra-EU 15 times increase between 1995 and 2000 (from third countries 4 times higher)
10 years anniversary of SEM… –Effects of SEM between 1992-2002 (continued): Downward price convergence (3.6%) Productivity immediately after 1992: up 2% Cross-border procurement: increase from 6% (1987) to 10% (1998) Export goods price convergence (50% of all in EU)
10 years anniversary of SEM… –Areas with scope of further integration: Financial Markets (extra 1% of GDP, and extra 0.5 million jobs) –Higher liquidity increases companies value added by 0.74%-0.92% Network industries (utilities): lower costs
Conference organised by ANO pro Evropu, Prague, 13 October 2006
Readings El-Agraa, ch*.11, ch. 7 Baldwin, R. E., 1989. The growth effects of 1992, in Economic Policy, October. (individual article copy also available in library) Baldwin and Wyplosz, ch. 6, 7
Readings European Commission, 2003. The Internal Market – Ten years without frontiers.European Commission, 2003. The Internal Market – Ten years without frontiers. European Commission, 1996. Economic Evaluation of the Internal Market, European Economy. Reports and Studies No. 4, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Checchini, P., 1988. The European Challenge: 1992. The Benefits of a Single Market, Aldershot: Wildwood House.