1. 6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security

2. What is this topic about?
Energy is fundamental to our lives, and we often take it for granted
This topic explores our energy supply, and asks challenging questions about it
Can we continue to rely on fossil fuels, or do we need a radical switch in energy sources?
Energy is very closely linked to climate change as fossil fuels (our main energy source) are the main source of greenhouse gas emissions.

3. Energy supply, demand and security The impacts of energy insecurity
CONTENTS
Energy supply, demand and security
The impacts of energy insecurity
Energy security and the future
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4. 1. Energy supply, demand and security
There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security of supply and environmental issues:
Non-renewable
Renewable
Recyclable
A finite stock of resources, which will run out
A flow of resources, which is infinite in human terms
Can be used repeatedly, if managed carefully
Coal, oil, gas (plus oil shale, tar sands, lignite etc.)
Wind, solar, hydroelectric, wave, tidal, geothermal
Biomass, nuclear (with reprocessing of fuel)
Significant environmental impacts during extraction (oil wells, opencast mines)
Greenhouse gas emissions during use, and acidic emissions
May require large areas (solar arrays, wind farms) for operation.
NIMBY issues.
Limited / no greenhouse emissions.
Large land area needed for biomass.
Largely unresolved issues of storing high level radioactive waste.

5. Life cycle analysis
Life cycle analysis accounts for C02 emissions at all stages of the energy supply chain, not simply during use 
Comparing the environmental impact of different energy sources is a challenge
Life cycle greenhouse emissions is one approach
Even this does not account for NIMBY issues (e.g. windfarms), or the loss of ecosystems and biodiversity linked to extraction of fossil fuels
Some sources, such as nuclear and biomass are highly controversial and there is intense debate over their ‘green’ credentials.

6. Top 15 countries by oil, gas and coal reserves in 2008
Access to energy
Direct access to fossil fuel reserves is a coincidence of geological history and international boundaries.
Some countries find themselves with more fossil fuel sources than their needs
Others have none
Reserves run down over time, as is the gas with the UK’s once abundant North Sea oil and gas
Remaining oil and gas will increasingly concentrate in the Middle East over the next 30 years.
Top 15 countries by oil, gas and coal reserves in 2008

7. Access to renewables UK renewable potential
Most renewable energy is constrained by physical geography, and especially climate
This means its availability is place specific
The UK has significant renewable potential, especially wind, although it is a small country with limited land area; most HEP sites are already used.
Many renewables are intermittent energy sources, so energy must be stored (very costly and technically difficult) or backed up by another source
UK renewable potential
Source
Physical limitations
Wind
Requires wind speeds of 8-25 mph
Solar PV
Works best in areas of over 6 kwh per sq. metre per day
Biomass
Requires large land area for feedstock
HEP
Suitable valleys i.e. long, deep and relatively narrow, and predictable water supply

8. Access to energy
Which energy sources are used is not simply a matter of which fossil fuels or renewable forms are available in a country
Other factors influence choice of energy sources
Cost is critical, as people are sensitive to energy sources
Nuclear power station construction ground to a standstill after the 1986 Chernobyl accident.
Technology
Technology is required to drill, mine, process etc, and is not available everywhere e.g. LDCs.
Attitudes
Public attitudes may be anti-nuclear, or NIMBYISM may block wind turbines or dams.
Cost
While desirable, technologies like wave and hydrogen may be too expensive due to technical challenges.

9. Energy poverty
Lack of access to energy resources is common in the developing world
Reliance of fuel wood, farm waste and dung is high and fossil fuel consumption low
Up to 40% of the world’s population rely on these sources as their primary cooking and heating fuel
Close to 2 billion people have no access to electricity
Access to cheap, reliable energy is strongly related to development as so much of ‘modern’ life and industry depends on it.

10. Demand
Global demand for energy has risen dramatically, especially since the 1960s
Demand doubled between 1960 and 1980
Growth in demand has been slower since 1980, but is projected to rise by up to 60% between 2002 and 2030 and continue upward.
The BRIC countries, as well as other large developing nations (Mexico, Indonesia) have contributed to much to recent increases in demand and are likely to do so in the future.
Further industrialisation inevitably brings demands for cars and consumer goods, all of which need power.

11. Domestic fossil fuel reserves Domestic renewable potential
Security
Energy security depends on a number of factors (see table)
Countries with a diverse energy ‘mix’ are less at risk than those relying on 1 or 2 sources
Renewable potential could be used to offset declining fossil fuel reserves or supply interruptions
Reliance on long distance international trade in fossil fuels may be risky
Demand and dependency are important too, as it is difficult to replace a large amount of oil with another energy source for instance
Domestic fossil fuel reserves
Countries like Italy and Japan have few of their own resources
Domestic renewable potential
Small, crowded nations like Singapore and South Korea lack renewable potential
Domestic energy mix
France relies heavily on nuclear power, and the UK on gas.
Import pathway
risk
The UK imports gas from Russia and Qatar, both long distance pathways.

12. 2. The impacts of energy insecurity
Pathway disruption
Price and payment disputes
Piracy e.g. off the Somali coast
Terrorism or conflict closing choke points
Political discord between supplier and consumer
Diversion of supply, perhaps for a higher price
Technical interruption to production
Producer’s supply simply runs out
Natural disasters e.g. hurricane Katrina
Fossil fuel supply regions are poorly matched with areas of largest demand
This is especially true for oil and gas
Energy must flow along international pathways from producer to consumer
These are either pipelines (oil and gas), bulk carriers (coal, uranium), LNG tankers (gas) or oil tankers. Electricity is also exported / imported.
Pathways could be disrupted, increasing energy insecurity.

13. Risks of disruption
Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as disputes between Russia and Ukraine disrupted European gas supplies in 2006 and 2009
Russia holds 25% of world gas reserves, the Middle East 40% (and 56% of oil)
Disruption to narrow ocean choke points (see map) could seriously affect the flow of oil
Countries close to some choke points are unstable (Iran, Somalia, Yemen)

14. Risks of disruption
There are real risks if oil and gas supplies are disrupted.
Any potential disruption is headline news
So dependent are we on cheap, uninterrupted energy supplies that disruption could lead to:
Soaring energy costs and rising energy poverty
Pressure on politicians to act; possibly rationing energy
Civil disruption
Rising costs for industry, job losses and recession
Unsound decisions (economically and environmentally) to rapidly develop alternative sources
Diplomatic conflict
UK energy disruption
Oct 1973
Oil crisis; petrol rationing
Sept 2000
UK wide fuel protests over price and tax
Aug 2005
Further UK protests; Hurricane Katrina pushes oil prices higher
Aug 2008
Oil at $147 a barrel
Jan 2010
National Grid ‘gas balancing alerts’ are headline news ; gas supply from Norway drops on technical problems

15. Environmental impacts
Supply: new sources
As oil prices remain high, and fears of ‘peak oil and gas’ increase the search is on for new sources:
Example
Source
Technical challenge
Environmental impacts
Canadian (Athabasca) tar sands
Bitumen combined with sand / rock under boreal forests; close to surface
MODERATE
Strip mining or extraction by steam; gas is used to heat the sands and extract oil.
HIGH
Energy intensive extraction and destruction of ecosystems
Arctic oil
Conventional oil in fragile wilderness region, both on and offshore
LOW
Conventional drilling and extraction; Arctic oil has been taken from Prudhoe Bay for decades.
Fragile environment but production has relatively small footprint
West of Shetland, Foinaven field
Conventional oil in deep ocean water
Production began in 1997, but using ‘floating’ rigs
Low risk of spills and limited impact on sea bed
USA (Green River) oil shale
Bitumen encased in solid rock
Opencast mining, then can be directly burnt or heated to drive off oil.
Large areas mined, scarring landscape and energy intensive production

16. Viable alternatives?
The chart below shows the estimates oil price required for each energy resource to be competitive with oil and gas without any form of State support or subsidy
Source: the FT 2009

17. Generators and Distributors
Players
The diagram below summarises the role of some key players in the energy supply
Energy Players
Governments
National energy mix; renewable policy; subsidies and grants
Generators and Distributors
Vital infrastructure (National Grid) and power stations
Environmentalists
Pressure to adopt renewables and reduce carbon intensity; campaigns
OPEC
Key role in the global oil price, by managing production
Scientists, R&D
Research into alterative fuels and applications ; efficiency gains
Energy TNCs
Exploration for reserves, exploitation and refining; distribution of oil
Consumers
Often highly price sensitive; can exert pressure on politicians.

18. Big oil: TNCs and OPEC ‘Supermajor’ TNCs State owned oil giants
Total Fr
Saudi Aramco
Saudi Arabia BP UK
Gazprom
Russia
Shell
UK/Nl
CNPC
China
Chevron
USA
Petrobras
Brazil
ExxonMobil
NOIC
Iran
ConocoPhilips
PDVSA
Venezuela
Supermajor and other oil and gas TNCs control most oil and gas extraction, refining and distribution.
State owned oil companies own / control access to 95% of world oil and gas reserves
OPEC is effectively a price control cartel, with considerable power.

19. 3. Energy security and the future
There are several key uncertainties relating to energy futures:
Future demand is uncertain – it partly depends on future population and economic growth
The lifespan of fossil fuel reserves, especially oil, is unknown
The extent to which we exploit unconventional oil (see image)
The extent and timing of switching from fossil fuel to renewables is uncertain.
Peak oil and gas are important; after peak production prices can only rise.

20. The nuclear option?
Opinion is divided over whether nuclear power is the answer
It provides about 15% of the world’s electricity, but only 2% of all energy needs
There are over 400 reactors in 30 countries, but few currently being built
Advantages
Disadvantages
Fuel sources (see map)
Low life cycle carbon emissions.
Constant power output
Takes up little space .
Large power output per plant
Public distrust.
High initial cost.
Long build times.
High level waste disposal.
Fears of terrorism.
Nuclear proliferation.
Technically challenging

21. Future biofuels might not use food crops:
Biofuels have the advantage of being flexible liquids
As such they can replace diesel (biodiesel) and petrol (bio-ethanol)
However, they require food crops as feedstocks (sugar cane, maize etc)
This means land that could be used for food.
In explosive growth of biofuel crop area was blamed for pushing up global food prices
Biofuels are not carbon neutral, because of the energy used in farming, transport and refining.
Future biofuels might not use food crops:
1st generation – food crops
2nd generation – crop wastes
3rd generation – algae

22. Geopolitics
There are a number of sources of tension, both present and future, related to energy security and the threat of insecurity:
Scenario
Explanation
Consequences
Oil hits $100
Sustained oil price of over $100 per barrel, for several years.
Prolonged economic recession and rising fuel poverty in OECD countries
Middle East meltdown
Tensions in the Gulf escalate into war between Muslim factions; possibly involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Turkey and others.
Interruption of oil and gas flows; rising prices; tension between China and USA to secure oil supply
The nuclear option
Wholesale shifting towards nuclear to replace fossil fuels, leads to global spread of nuclear power and technology
Power stations become ‘soft targets’ for terrorism; enriched uranium and depleted plutonium get into the wrong hands….
Energy superpowers
The Gulf States hold 60%+ of oil reserves and Russia/Qatar/ Iran 60%+ of gas; the world has not shifted to renewables.
Energy superpowers begin to ‘name their price’ and take care of their friends; major geopolitical shifts
Arctic attack
Canada, Russia, USA and EU begin to exploit the Arctic for oil and gas, but without clear delineation of territorial areas.
A war or words over who has the right to exploit what, quickly becomes a new cold war – possibly a hot one……

23. Future challenges
What are our energy challenges in 2010? There are some that are obvious:
Reduce dependency on fossil fuels to increase energy security
Increase renewable energy use as fossil fuels become more expensive / peak
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Increase access to energy in developing nations
Mix it up
Wind, solar and others can be used to diversify energy sources.
This would increase security, but could also reduce greenhouse emissions.
Technology for all
Aid could be used to help developing nations grow their renewable sectors
Intermediate technology is key to this.
They need energy, but without greenhouse emissions.
Tax it down
Green taxes i.e. taxing fossil fuel use, could encourage efficiency
Greenhouse emissions would fall as efficiency rises
The dirtiest fuels could be taxed the most.
Self generation
Homes can generate renewable energy using ground source heat pumps, micro-wind and solar PV / thermal
This would diversify the energy mix, reduce emissions and increase self-reliance.