1. 1 EES, Nicosia 20071Power supply in Europe POWER SUPPLY FOR EUROPE: How Sustainable Can It Be ? Prof. Dr. PETER NOVAK Dean, School of Tehnology and Systems, SLOVENIA

2. 2 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe2 Outline CLIMATE CHANGE and POWERCLIMATE CHANGE and POWER POWER NEEDS IN EUPOWER NEEDS IN EU SOLAR POWERSOLAR POWER CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIESCONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES NORTH AFRICA RESOURCESNORTH AFRICA RESOURCES DESIGN CONCEPTDESIGN CONCEPT ECONOMICSECONOMICS HOW TO START?HOW TO START? CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

3. 3 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe3 Sir Stern introduction of the Review “The Economics of Climate Change” 1.GHG emissions are an externality 2.When poeple do not pay for the consequences of their actions we have market failure 3.Present development is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen 4.It is an externality that goes beyond those of ordinary cogestion or pollution 5.This externality is different in 4 key ways, it is: 1.global 2.long term 3.Involves risks and uncertainties 4.and potentially involves major and irreversible change

4. 4 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe4 Energy and GHG emissions- world 65% 45%

5. 5 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe5 ELECTRICITY IN SOCIETY ELECTRICITY is a basic final energy need for each societyELECTRICITY is a basic final energy need for each society Electricity production/consumption GROWTH in the world in last 30 years (1972 -2002) was 5,6% with yearly additions of 343 TWh/y (2006 total: ~ 17.426 TWh/y)Electricity production/consumption GROWTH in the world in last 30 years (1972 -2002) was 5,6% with yearly additions of 343 TWh/y (2006 total: ~ 17.426 TWh/y) Electricity CONSUMPTION pro capita in 2002 in the world varies extremely and lies between 27 kWh/cap in Etiopia and 27.764 kWh/cap on Iceland (1: 1000)Electricity CONSUMPTION pro capita in 2002 in the world varies extremely and lies between 27 kWh/cap in Etiopia and 27.764 kWh/cap on Iceland (1: 1000)

6. 6 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe6 EU ENERGY CASE TPE use in 2006: ~ 1 637 mio toe TPE import: 56% Electricity consumption 2006: 3 178,6 TWh/y (18% of world consumption) Expected newly installed capacities to 2030 for replacement and to cover the expected growth : ~ 370 GW (~ 15 000 MW/yr trough 24 years !!!!) Investment: ~ 370 -400 Bn € EU Policy: 20 to 20 – 20% les emission of GHG to 2020 Solutions: energy conservations, nuclear, solar

7. 7 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe7 ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN EU Predicted installed capacity of different generating capacities in 15 EU states (GW)* 2000 2010 2020 2030 growth % 2000 2010 2020 2030 growth % Nuclear 136.4 135.1 117.2 45.6 - 66,5 ??Nuclear 136.4 135.1 117.2 45.6 - 66,5 ?? Coal and Lignite 166.1 101.1 36.9 9.5 - 94,3 ??Coal and Lignite 166.1 101.1 36.9 9.5 - 94,3 ?? Open Cycle multi-fired 68.7 60.2 122.3 244.6 256Open Cycle multi-fired 68.7 60.2 122.3 244.6 256 Open Cycle IPP 33.1 25 20.5 15.1 - 54,4Open Cycle IPP 33.1 25 20.5 15.1 - 54,4 GTCC 59 208.7 305 354.3 500,5 ??GTCC 59 208.7 305 354.3 500,5 ?? Small GT 25.2 45.2 79.2 96.6 283,3 ??Small GT 25.2 45.2 79.2 96.6 283,3 ?? Clean Coal and Lignite 0.5 3.4 26.6 37 7300 !!!Clean Coal and Lignite 0.5 3.4 26.6 37 7300 !!! Biomass-Waste 4.4 4.7 6 6.5 47,7Biomass-Waste 4.4 4.7 6 6.5 47,7 Fuel Cells 0 0 0 1.3 ---Fuel Cells 0 0 0 1.3 --- Hydro-Renewables119.2 133.7 158 170.7 43,2Hydro-Renewables119.2 133.7 158 170.7 43,2 TOTALS 612.6 717.1 871.7 981.2 60,2TOTALS 612.6 717.1 871.7 981.2 60,2 * The Liberalizations of Europe's Electricity Markets –pg.12, 2000

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9. 9 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe9 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass/waste Wind TWh 1995 2030, Predicted Fuel Use in EU for Electricity Production* *Production of Electricity by energy Form, European Union Energy Outlook to 2020 EU FUEL FOR ELECTRICITY Not sustainable solution ?

10. 10 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe10 EU CO 2 EMISSIONS 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1990199520102020 Million Tons CO 2 emmisions due to electricity production Total emission of CO 2 in 2002: EU 15: 2,6 Gt EU 25: 3,1 Gt How to come down ? ~ 46% of total emissions of CO 2 ?

11. 11 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe11 EU RE TARGET Renewable Electricity Production Targets In the EU White Paper [1]. [1] Actual in 1995 Projection for 2010 Type of Energy TWh%TotalTWh % Total Total2,3662,870 Pre -Kyoto Wind40.2802.8 Total Hydro 3071335512.4 Photovoltaic’s0.03-30.1 Biomass22.50.952308.0 Geothermal3.50.1570.2 Total Renewable Energies Instaled power (Cf~0,44) GW 33787,314.3675174,823.5 1] 1] White Paper, table 3, page 50 [ 1] White Paper, table 3, page 50 [ 1] New generating capacity: fossil fuel to 2010 104,5 GW* to 2030 368,6 GW* * 50 % new, 50 % replacement * 50 % new, 50 % replacement +87,5 GW + 64%

12. 12 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe12 ENERGY SYSTEM CAN WE CHANGE THE ENERGY SYSTEM?

13. 13 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe13 ENERGY SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2 ENERGY SYSTEM FOR UN-SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - Minimum 6 energy carriers -Large emissions of : NO X, CO, CO 2, particulates CO, CO 2, particulates - Fossil fuels interdependency - Supply un-security - Limited life time of resources WORLD EMISSIONS OF CO 2 IN 2005 : ~ 42 ÷ 44 Gt /yr LIQUID FUEL LPG BIOMASS

14. 14 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe14 ENERGY SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTAdvatages: - Only 3 energy carriers ( gas, liquid, electricity) universally liquid, electricity) universally applicable applicable - Renevable electricity - Methane: CH 4 Natural/synthetic gas gas - Methanol: CH 4 OH – oxidized liquid fuel liquid fuel - Almost no change of infrastructure infrastructure - C from biomas, H from water GHG EMISSIONS IN YEAR 2050 ÷ 2100 ~ 0 CO 2 ~ GEOTHERMAL

15. 15 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe15 SOLAR ENERGY AVAILABLE EVERYWHEREAVAILABLE EVERYWHERE LOW DENSITYLOW DENSITY INTERMITTENTINTERMITTENT TECHNOLOGIES IN DEVELOPMENTTECHNOLOGIES IN DEVELOPMENT SCALE ECONOMICSSCALE ECONOMICS

16. 16 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe16 DIRECT SOLAR IRRADIATION on the world map

17. 17 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe17 Solar energy availability SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY PV potencial world map – Sahara is leader with 315 000 TWh/yr In EU 25 2007 consumtion:~ 3180 TWh/y 1/100 part Artistic view of PV power plant in desert region – with water pumping for agriculture

18. 18 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe18 POWER FROM AFRICA FOR EUROPE (SAHARA DESERT POWER FROM AFRICA FOR EUROPE (SAHARA DESERT ) WHAT KIND OF ENERGY: –ELECTRICITY –SOLAR SIN-FUEL ADVANTAGES: –ZERO EMISSION –USE OF THE SUN BELT –RENEWABLE ENERGY –USE OF NO ARABLE LAND DISADVANTAGES: –TECHNOLOGY IN DEVELOPMENT –INVESTMENT COSTS –DISTANCE –POLITICAL ISSUE (ENERGY DEPENDENCY)

19. 19 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe19 RELIABILITY What kind of “SOLAR POWER CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES” are available for MW or GW scale ? Three technologies are available: 1. Solar thermal electricity 2. Solar PV 3. Wind

20. 20 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe20 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY –SOLAR TOWER (molten salt) ~ 900 °C ?? –PARABOLIC TROUGH (thermal oil, steam) ~400 °C –SOLAR CHIMNEY ~ 60 – 80 °C, buoyancy-wind

21. 21 CPS environmental benefits Steinhagen, DLR,Germany

22. 22 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe22 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR TOWER (molten salt -sodium, potassium nitrate ) ~ 900 °CSOLAR TOWER (molten salt -sodium, potassium nitrate ) ~ 900 °C ONLY EXPERIMENTAL UNIT 10 MWONLY EXPERIMENTAL UNIT 10 MW LOW EFFICIENCY ~ 7%LOW EFFICIENCY ~ 7% INVESTMENT NOT KNOWNINVESTMENT NOT KNOWN MAINTENANCE OF HELIOSTATSMAINTENANCE OF HELIOSTATS HIGH TEMPERATURE CONVERSIONHIGH TEMPERATURE CONVERSION USEFULL FOR SINFUEL Project: 40 MW thermal – 15 MWe/24 h; 15$c/kWhProject: 40 MW thermal – 15 MWe/24 h; 15$c/kWh Investment: 100 M$Investment: 100 M$ SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY

23. 23 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe23 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES PARABOLIC TROUGH (thermal oil, water/steam) ~400 °CPARABOLIC TROUGH (thermal oil, water/steam) ~400 °C Real SEGS 354 MW – 20 year of operationReal SEGS 354 MW – 20 year of operation Efficiency: ~ 10,8%,y; 20% dayly max.Efficiency: ~ 10,8%,y; 20% dayly max. New plant eff.:: ~ 15-16%,yNew plant eff.:: ~ 15-16%,y Solar field eff. up to 60%Solar field eff. up to 60% investment: $2000/kW for SEGSinvestment: $2000/kW for SEGS Investment: $ 850/kW for ISCCSInvestment: $ 850/kW for ISCCS Maintenance: acceptableMaintenance: acceptable Hybridization up to 25%, thermal storageHybridization up to 25%, thermal storage Thermal storage costs:~ $20/ kWhThermal storage costs:~ $20/ kWh Mojave desert, Kramer Junction SEGS- Solar Electric Generating System SEGS- Solar Electric Generating System ISCCS – Integrated Solar Combined-Cycle System SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY

24. 24 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe24 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY Solar electric generation system (SEGS) – layout; Land use: ~ (20 – 25) m 2 /kW e

25. 25 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe25 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY SEGS 354 MW Kramer Junction Mojave Desert, California

26. 26 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe26 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY SEGS – SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATING SYSSTEM

27. 27 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe27 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES Solar chimney For medium power, simple design, reliable (?) Low efficency, integrated storage, aproppriate for hybridization with CSP, little experience

28. 28 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe28 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES design data comparison Solar tower 200 MW: 350 ÷400 GWh/y, Cf ~ 57% (700 ÷ 800 GWh/y) Land area: 1920 ha (D =5000 m, h =1000 m), A ~ 98 m 2 /kWe  ~ 2 ÷ (4) %, Construction time: 34 months ISCCS 200 MW: 773,5 GWh/y, Cf = 50% 673 ha (2600 x 2600 m); A= 33,6 m 2 /kW  costruction time: 12 months

29. 29 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe29 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY SOLAR PV ELECTRICITYSOLAR PV ELECTRICITY –Si CRYSTALLINE CELLS: Efficiency ~ 12-16 % –Si POLYCRYSTALLIN CELLS: Efficiency ~ 10 -14 % –GaAs, CdTe, CIS,.. Efficiency > 16%(abs. max.:37,9 % at 10 sun, 39 % at 236 sun, May, Jun 2005) –GaAs, CdTe, CIS,.. Efficiency > 16% (abs. max.:37,9 % at 10 sun, 39 % at 236 sun, May, Jun 2005)

30. 30 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe30 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES Solar PV power plant, Tucson, Arizona, USA SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY

31. 31 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe31 ESTIMATED PRODUCTION CAPACITY EU 25 ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN 2010: > 3500 TWh (2711 TWh in 2002)EU 25 ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN 2010: > 3500 TWh (2711 TWh in 2002) CONSTRUCTION PLAN TO 2030: 184, 3 GW FOR REPLACEMENT AND 184,3 GW NEW PPCONSTRUCTION PLAN TO 2030: 184, 3 GW FOR REPLACEMENT AND 184,3 GW NEW PP MIN. RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE: 87,5 GW MIN. RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE: 87,5 GW 50 % of them can be build in SAHARA as50 % of them can be build in SAHARA as SUSTAINABLE, POLLUTION FREE Power Plants

32. 32 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe32 Sustainable electricity supply proposal Solar electricity production for EU in north - east LIBYA desert Available: LANDLAND SOLAR IRRADIATIONSOLAR IRRADIATION TECHNOLOGIESTECHNOLOGIES ELECTRICITY DISPATCHELECTRICITY DISPATCH

33. 33 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe33 MAP of LIBYA 1,759,540.00 sq km, 1% arable land ~1542 km ~1667 km Land for ~ 700 GW PP 200 x 200 km

34. 34 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe34 CLIMATIC DATA FOR NORTH - EAST LIBYA YEARLY AVERAGE: Air temperature: 19,1°C Insulation on 31°tilted surface: 6,18 kWh/m 2 (6,6 kWh/m 2 opt.) Wind speed, height 50 m: 5,01 m/s (86% > [3÷ 10] m/s)

35. 35 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe35 PV production NORTH - EAST LIBYA YEARLY AVERAGE: Air temperature: 19,1°C Insulation on 31°tilted surface: 6,18 kWh/m 2 (6,6 kWh/m2 opt.) Yearly production: 1541 kWh e Land use: ~ 25 m 2 / kWp

36. 36 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe36 DESIGN CONCEPT 1200 MW SOLAR THERMAL, PV and WIND POWER PLANT unit, consisting of: 1 x 200 MW solar chimney; 5000 x 5000 m, H = 1000 m 6 x 100 MW ISCCS 3 x 6100 x 700 m 2 x 100 MW PV 1 x 5000 x 500 80 x 2,5 MW WG between others __________________________________________ Total: 1200 MW area 6800 x 6400 m = 43, 52 km 2

37. 37 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe37 DESIGN CONCEPT Total efficiency (with present technology): Solar chimney: 3,0 % ISCCS: 12,5% PV: 10,5% WG: 40,0% Capacity factor: Cf ~ 0,75 Yearly electricity production: 3,862 (ST+PV) + 1,280 (WG) TWh = 5,142 TWh/yr Number of units build per year: 7 ÷ 10

38. 38 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe38 DESIGN SCHEDULE AND CAPACITY Because of different construction durations, the order of the construction should be: Because of different construction durations, the order of the construction should be: 1.PV – 2 x 100 MW 2.Wind generators, 80 x 2,5 MW (w ~ 6,4 m/s) 3.Solar chimney, 1 x 200 MW 4.ISCCP, 6 x 100 MW To cover 100% of the yearly electricity consumption in 2030 for 25 EU Countries, a land area of max. 200 x 200 km will be needed or less than 2,5% of Libya’s desert area. Production of 4000 TWh/yr with power capacity factor of 0,75 could be achieved. Using the hybridisation power capacity, this factor could be close to 1. To cover 100% of the yearly electricity consumption in 2030 for 25 EU Countries, a land area of max. 200 x 200 km will be needed or less than 2,5% of Libya’s desert area. Production of 4000 TWh/yr with power capacity factor of 0,75 could be achieved. Using the hybridisation power capacity, this factor could be close to 1.

39. 39 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe39 DESIGN CONCEPT 6 x 100 MW ISCCS 2 x 100 PV 1 x 200 MW SOLAR POWER STATION 1 GW + ~ 200 WIND TURBINE (~ 7X7 KM) 2 x 100 MW PV 6 x 100 MW ISCCS SOLAR POWER PLANT 1,2 GW Location: 31°N;23°E; Land use:~ 7 x 7 km P. Novak, Energotech, SI Solar chimney 200 MW 80 x 2,5 MW WG

40. 40 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe40 CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY ISCCS – INTEGRATED SOLAR COMBINED-CYCLE SYSTEM Low pressure solar steam High pressure solar steam Variants: ORC geothermal hot rock

41. 41 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe41 TRANSMISSION Electricity In the first phase of solar power plant construction the mediteranian high voltage line circular line can be used. The second phase is construction of the high voltage direct current under-sea line to EU contries.The second phase is construction of the high voltage direct current under-sea line to EU contries. The third phase is to convert solar electricity to syn-fuels: hydrogen, methan (gas) and methanol (liquid) for sustainable energy systemThe third phase is to convert solar electricity to syn-fuels: hydrogen, methan (gas) and methanol (liquid) for sustainable energy system

42. 42 Future possible grid connections

43. 43 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe43 CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER ECONOMICS Peak capacity factor on 6h basis: 90 -95% with fossil hybrid or thermal storage Annual capacity factor: Cf ~ 40-50 % Debt Interest Rate: 9,5% Equity IRR: 15% Performans waranty: 1-5 y SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY

44. 44 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe44 CPS ECONOMICS SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT - ISCCS (www.energylan.sandia.gov/sunlab/overview.htlm)

45. 45 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe45 PV ECONOMICS Solar modules costs SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY The cost of the system is about 2-times the module costs, depending on the land and support structure costs; COSTS ~ (7 – 10) $/Wp (5,4 ÷7,7) €/Wp

46. 46 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe46 Syn-fuel – Hydrogen costs Basic Research Needs for solar energy utilisation, ANL Workshop April 2005 SOLAR HYDROGEN: 4 - 2 TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE

47. 47 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe47 How to start ? 1.Donation of the land to one of UNO international organizations (UNESCO; UNDP; UNEP) – 35 ÷ 99 year contract 2.Organizing international activities to build the first unit from donations/credit (WB, GEF) and private/public partnership 3.Selling the “green” electricity to Europe and other interested countries 4.Profit should be used for activities of UNO (e.g. UNESCO, UNDP, UNEP, etc.)

48. 48 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe48 How to start ? Benefits: 1.UN organizations become financially less dependent and can help African and other countries in development. 2.Europe will be supplied with sustainable electricity from independent organizations. 3.Experience will be collected for the future commercially built units. 4.Libya or other (land owning) North Africa countries will become important part of international sustainable development policy 5.Africa’s development can be financed by itself

49. 49 EES, Nicosia 2007Power supply in Europe49 CONCLUSIONS The question of solar electricity production on large scale in North Africa for EU is not:The question of solar electricity production on large scale in North Africa for EU is not: “can we do it” but “why don’t we do it” We have the technology, which is not yet optimized, but is available.We have the technology, which is not yet optimized, but is available. Do we have the political will?Do we have the political will? THANK YOU