1. INDIA - RUSSIA COOPERATION FOR ENSURING ENERGY SECURITY By T L Sankar Administrative Staff College of India Institute of Public Enterprise Hyderabad February 2009

2. Period TPES – Total Primary Energy Elasticity Electricity Elasticity 1981 to 20040.971.24 1991 to 20040.801.04 1994 to 20040.740.98 Elasticity of Energy Consumption with GDP – India

3. Year Total PCES In Mtoe Coal Mtoe Oil Mtoe NG Mtoe Primary Electricity Mtoe Imports Mtoe As % of TPCES Total Elec. Gen. BkWhr / Mtoe 1980-8198.0 58.5 (59.7) 34.0 (34.7) 1.3 (1.3) 4.2 (4.3) 23.7 (24.2) 119.2 (10.2) 1990-91191.5 114.4 (59.7) 59.7 (31.2) 10.9 (5.7) 6.5 (3.4) 32.1 (16.8) 289.4 (24.9) 2000-01314.1 175.2 (55.8) 107.4 (34.2) 23.9 (7.6) 7.6 (2.4) 93.6 (29.8) 560.8 (48.2) 2003-04351.9 200.5 (57.0) 117.1 (33.3) 26.5 (7.5) 7.8 (2.2) 109.0 (31.0) 633.3 (54.5) 2005-06387.6 229.2 (59.1) 121.8 (31.4) 26.8 (6.9) 9.8 (2.6) 129.9 730.0 (62.8) Growth Rate % per year 1980- 2005 5.75.65.2---7.5 Energy Consumption Trends (1980-81 to 2005-06)

4. Period TPCES Elasticity Electricity Elasticity 2004 - 20120.800.95 2012 - 20220.750.85 2022 – 20320.670.78 Elasticity TPCES & Electricity with GDP - India

5. YearTPCES MTOE Electricity BkWhr 2006-07389761 2011-125211097 2016-176481524 2021-228982118 2026-2711662866 2031-3215143880 Forecast of Energy & Electricity Demand - India 2006-2031:

6. Year Total Thermal Electricity (BkWhr) Coal Based Generation (BkWhr) Gas Based (BkWhr) Coal Requirement (MMT) Gas Requirement (BCM) 2006-07 5775086933712 2011-12 8127159746319 2016-17 108995913060333 2021-22 1521133818383252 2026-27 20501804246110977 2031-32 282824893391475119 Fuel Demand for Power Generation (Gas based generation at about 12%, coal based at about 88%)

7. Year Hydro MTOE Nuclear MTOE Coal MTOE Oil MTOE Natural Gas MTOE TPES MTOE 2011-12121725716644496 2016-17183133821464665 2021-22234546427897907 2026-2729716223651351222 2031-3235988354861971651 Growth Rates 2011-32 %5.611.25.95.17.26.0 Per capita consumption 2030 KGOE 29785562961531112 Total Energy Requirements as per IEP

8. Year Hydro BkWhr Nuclear BkWhr Coal Million Tonnes Oil Million Tonnes Natural Gas B.Cum 2011-12 14065627 166 49 2016-17 209119824 214 71 2021-22 2671721132 278 108 2026-27 3372721517 365 150 2031-32 4073752037 486 219 Growth Rates 2011-32 %5.611.25.95.17.2 Per capita consumption 2030 KGOE2978556296153 Total Energy Requirements as per IEP in Physical Units

9. ResourcesUnitProved Production in 2005-06 R/P Ration Yrs of Life Coal (Reserve)Billion tonnes92.960.40Over 200 yrs Coal Extractable Billion tonnes30.000.4077.5 Lignite Extractable Billion tonnes4.260.028153 OilMillion tonnes7393322 GasBillion Cubic Meters 9923229 Reserve Production Ratio of Available Fuel Resources - India

10. Fuel Range of Requirement in Scenarios Assumed Domestic Production Range of Imports Import Dependency % Oil (Mt)350-48635315-45190-93 Natural Gas (Mtoe) including CBM 100-1971000-970-49 Coal (Mtoe)632-102256072-46211-45 TCPES1351-1702-387-101029-59 Range of Import Dependency of Fuels in 2031-32 - India

11. Thanking You Email ID: sankatl@yahoo.com