1. Daniel Gay Istanbul, 18 November 2008 Regional Report on Trade and Human Development in Central Asia

2. 1.Process 2.Overview 3.Opportunities for trade 4.Trade and HD impact assessment 5.Conclusions and key recommendations

3. 1. process Country studies were used for specific information and data. Secondary research conducted. Trade and HD Guide used simultaneously, while the Guide was being developed. Cross-country comparisons made.

4. 2. Overview Differences in economic growth…

5. 1990/9320002005 GDP per capita, 1990* HDI (global rank),1993 GDP per capita* HDI (global rank) GDP per capita* HDI (global rank) Kazakhstan4,71654 4,378 737,85773 Turkmenistan4,230 66 2,317 983,838109 Uzbekistan3,115 80 2,550 1002,063113 Kyrgyzstan3,114 83 2,053 1061,927116 Tajikistan2,558 88 1,041110 1,356122 Human development index… * PPP US$ Sources: UNDP, Human Development Report 1990-2007/2008 (Human Development Indicators).

6. … investment 2004200520062007 Kazakhstan4,1571,9716,22410,259 Kyrgyzstan17543182208 Tajikistan27254339401 Turkmenistan354418731804 Uzbekistan18788195262 Russian Federation 15,44412,88632,38752,475 … trade 200320042005 12,92720,09327,849 582719672 797915909 3,6323,8704939 3,1894,2804837 (US$m) Sources: UNCTAD (2007,2008) Incoming FDI, 2004-07Exports, 2003-05(US$m)

7. … and in doing business. KazakhstanKyrgyzstanTajikistanUzbekistan Doing business rank 7194153138 Starting a business 574916154 Trading across borders 178177176165 Closing a business 10012899119 Source: World Bank (2008) … but across the region: There are some similarities in the business environment Trade facilitation is a challenge, particularly transport.

8. 3. Trading opportunities The large number of regional and bilateral agreements have resulted in a ‘spaghetti bowl’ effect, leading to conflict and confusion. Multilateralism or greater regional coordination would help alleviate these concerns. Three sectors were chosen, each with the potential to alleviate poverty and contribute to human development. –Kazakhstan – textiles –Kyrgyzstan – agriculture and agricultural processing –Uzbekistan – textiles

9. 4. Trade and hd impact assessment There is an uneven, but generally challenging HD situation across the region MDGs look unlikely uniformly to be reached Poverty, health, environment and gender problems remain. Any progress is largely despite the absence of pro-poor government policies; and is largely due to externally-driven economic growth. Better policy can help increase the contribution of trade to HD and mitigate its ill-effects.

10. The method in the Guide* was used to analyse some of the possible impacts of WTO accession on trade and HD: TRADE POLICY CHANGE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS TRANSMISSION CHANNELS POST-ASSESSMENT CONSIDERATIONS * Using UNDP Colombo (2008) ‘Human Development Impact Assessment of Trade’, 3 April draft

11. TRADE POLICY CHANGE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS Expected positive and negative effects Who will gain or lose? TRANSMISSION CHANNELS Fiscal, prices, production Institutional environment Data and knowledge constraints POST-ASSESSMENT CONSIDERATIONS Monitoring and mitigation measures Policy space

12. 5. Conclusions and recommendations General: Explicitly target the mainstreaming of trade into the development process. Promote a broad-based dialogue on trade and human development issues. Improve data on trade and human development.

13. Trade-related Conduct a systematic study of the ways in which the effects of WTO accession might be channelled Harmonise existing regional trade agreements/ examine possibilities for multilateral liberalisation.

14. Human development Continue to work towards the MDGs Adopt a regional approach to health and education Continue to share lessons on gender Specifically address labour mobility Diversify into areas that improve HD Address labour market issues

15. Regional organisations Coordinate trade facilitation measures Help regional integration of trade liberalisation Improve the delivery and coordination of road and rail transport infrastructure projects

16. THANK YOU danielrgay@yahoo.co.uk www.emergenteconomics.com