2Domain FocusSSEMA1The student will illustrate the means by which economic activity is measured.
3Domain FocusSSEMA2The student will explain the role and functions of the Federal Reserve System.
4Domain FocusSSEMA3The student will explain how the government uses fiscal policy to promote price stability, full employment, and economic growth.
5Georgia Council on Economic Education Where to Begin?Unemployment The Federal ReserveGDP Government SpendingInflation TaxationRecession Federal DebtDepression Federal DeficitGeorgia Council on Economic Educationw w w . g c e e . o r g
6SSEMA1 The student will illustrate the means by which economic activity is measured. a. Explain that overall levels of income, employment, and prices are determined by the spending and production decisions of households, businesses, government, and net exports. b. Define Gross Domestic Product (GDP), economic growth, unemployment, Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation, stagflation, and aggregate supply and aggregate demand. c. Explain how economic growth, inflation, and unemployment are calculated. d. Identify structural, cyclical, and frictional unemployment. e. Define the stages of the business cycle, as well as recession and depression. f. Describe the difference between the national debt and government deficits.
7How is economic activity measured? Gross Domestic Product (the main measure)Sometimes other measures are usefulGDP is used to derive many of them.Gross National ProductNet National ProductNational IncomePersonal IncomeDisposable Personal Income
8Gross Domestic Product Gross= totalDomestic= produced anywhere in the 50 states, by anyoneProduct= final goods and services
9Total amount of final goods and services produced in a country What does GDP measure?Total amount of final goods andservices produced in a countryin one year.(Measure of Output)
10What is counted in GDP? FINAL goods and services Goods/Services producedhere, even if by a foreign co.
11What is NOT counted? Things produced outside the country. Illegal stuffPurely financial transactionsPay a broker – broker part countsStock itself doesn’t count
13Gross Domestic Product Dollar value of all final goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a year.Dollar value = the total of the selling pricesFinal goods and services = products in the form sold to consumers, not in any intermediate formWithin the country’s borders = made in the USA even if made by a foreign-owned companyIn a year = in one calendar yearDoes not include things made by American companies outside our borders.
14Are there any cool formulas you can give us relating to this interesting concept? GDP=C+I+G+(X-M)
15C= consumption spending I= investment spending (think consumers)72%I= investment spending(think businesses investing in themselves)15%G= government spending17%(X-M)= difference between exports and imports-4%
17How is GDP calculated? 1) Expenditure approach Estimate what is spent in a year on 4 categories of final goods and services (consumer, business, government and net imports or exports) then add all 4 together to get total expenditures for one year.Total is GDPPractical, but not as accurate as the income approach.
18How is GDP measured? 2) Income approach Add up all the incomes in the economy.Ex: a firm sells a product, the selling price is income for the firm, the owners, the employees…ECONOMISTS USE BOTH APPROACHES AND COMPARE THEM.THEY ADJUST FOR MISTAKES.COMPARISON GIVES BETTER RESULTS.
19Problems associated with GDP Slow to calculateDoes not count everything (it’s an estimate)Inflation can distort the figureReal vs. Nominal
20Real and Nominal GDP Nominal GDP is measured in current year’s prices. Real GDP is measured in constant or unchanging prices (more accurate).Inflation distorts10 $1 = $1010 3 = $30Is our economy better?NO – inflated!!
21Per Capita GDP GDP divided by country’s population How much is being produced per person (potentially)?Quality of life?How many doctors in Yemen? Afghanistan?More in Bibb County than some countries.What does that mean?
22Per Capita GDPGDP divided by a country’s population
24Factors Influencing GDP Supply and demand affect GDPEconomists calculate price levels , the average of all prices, to determine aggregate supply (the total amount of goods and services in the economy available at all possible price levels).Aggregate demand (the amount of goods and services in the economy that will be purchased at all possible price levels)Intersection of aggregate supply and demand indicate equilibrium price level of the economy.
26Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply What is different about these graphs?What do they look like?What causes them to shift?
27Aggregate DemandAD = total amount of goods and services that all of the people in the economy are wiling to buy.Slopes downwardWhen prices are low, people will buy more, increasing the nation’s real GDP.When prices are high, people will buy less, decreasing the nation’s real GDP.
29Aggregate SupplyAS = total amount of goods and services that all producers in an economy are willing and able to make.Curves are more complicated than those for individual markets.Individual markets can adjust quickly to changes in demand by lowering prices.Takes longer for the average price of ALL goods and services produced in an economy to change.ECONOMISTS USE TWO CURVES TO SHOW AS CHANGES: short-run and long-run.
30SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE Slopes upward (like the supply curves we did in micro)Producers make slightly more goods as prices increase and slightly less as prices decrease. (slopes gently upward)
31LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE Supply is pretty constant because in the long-run, the total amount that any economy can produce (the real GDP) remains fairly constant, because real GDP is limited by its resources.Line is a straight vertical line.
36What is a business cycle? A period of economic expansion followed by a period of contraction.Major changes in GDP above or below normal levels.Four phases:ExpansionPeakContractiontrough
37Phases of the Business Cycle Peak = height of expansion, GDP stops rising.Contraction = economic decline, falling real GDP, unemployment, fall in business activity.Trough – lowest point in contraction, real GDP stops falling.Expansion – growth, rise in real GDP, increased employment and income.
38Leading Economic Indicators (point to what will happen in the economy) Help economists predict new phase.Stock market – downward slope before recession.Interest rates – low rates signal investment and expansion. High rates signal a slow down in buying, contraction.Manufacturers’ new orders of capital goods – show expansion or contraction.New home sales
39Other Leading Indicators Average weekly hours for workers in manufacturing jobsWeekly claims for unemployment insuranceNew orders for consumer goodsSpeed with which companies make deliveries (the busier the company, the longer it takes to fill orders)Number of contracts and orders for plants and equipment.Number of building permitsChanges in money supply in circulationChanges in consumer expectations
40IndicatorsCoincident indicators – change at same time as business cycle (rate of production, sales, number of nonagricultural workers employed, etc.)Lagging indicators – lag behind changes – give clues as to what the cycle is doing (avg. length of unemployment, size of inventories, labor cost/unit, changes in price index, etc.)US DEPT. OF COMMERCE compiles statistics for 78 economic indicators covering all aspects of the economy.
41Other terms associated with business cycles Economic growth – period of steady, long term increase in real GDP.Recession – prolonged economic contraction. Real GDP falls for two consecutive quarters (6 months)Depression – recession that is especially long and severe.Stagflation – decline in GDP combined with a rise in price level.
42Business Cycles are affected by four main factors Business investment – when the economy is expanding, firms are investing in new plants and equipment, or in old ones to improve production. GDP is increasing.Interest rates – when they are low, businesses expand and invest – GDP increases. When they are high, businesses slow down and GDP falls.Consumer expectations – when the economy looks good, we spend more. When it looks bad, we spend less.External shocks that are unexpected – disruption in oil supply, wars, natural disasters, etc. These things influence our output. Can be a good shock like a new discovery of oil – boost the economy.
43ActivityStudents should draw the business cycle and label each part, including a brief description of each phase in own words.
44Types of UnemploymentStructuralCyclicalFrictional
45UNEMPLOYMENT Types of unemployment Frictional – when people change jobs or get laid off (between jobs, left one to take another)Structural – when the skills of workers do not match the jobs that are available (big change in economy, change in the business, like a merger, or a closure.)Seasonal – when a period of steady work is followed by a period of unemployment each year. Takes place every year, regardless of the economy.Cyclical – when unemployment rises during economic downturns and falls when the economy improves (recession – people put off buying cars, etc. so people lose jobs). Can last 3-5 years.
49What is “unemployed”?People available for work who made a specific effort to find work in the past month and who during the most recent survey week, worked less than one hour for pay or profit.Also people who worked in a family business without pay for less than 15 hours a week.
50How is unemployment measured? It’s an important indicator of the health of the economy.Bureau of Labor statistics polls sample of population to determine how many are employed and unemployed.Unemployment rate is the percentage of nation’s labor force that is unemployed.It is only a national average – it’s doesn’t reflect regional trends.
51Full EmploymentThe level of employment reached when there is no cyclical unemployment (no one out of work because of downturn in the economy – everyone who wants a job has one)4-6% unemployment is “normal”.
52LimitationsFigures don’t count those who have become frustrated and stopped looking for work (have to have looked for work in the past 4 weeks)If you have a part time job you are considered employed even if you would rather have a full time job – took this one because it’s all you could find.
53Which type of unemployment? You just graduated from college and are taking some time looking for work after finishing school.Which type of unemployment?
54Which type of unemployment? You just graduated from college and are taking some time looking for work after finishing school.Which type of unemployment?FRICTIONALChange jobs or get laid off (not because of the economy)
55Which type of unemployment? You work for a landscaping company and get laid off during the winter.What type of unemployment?
56Which type of unemployment? You work for a landscaping company and get laid off during the winter.What type of unemployment?SEASONALSteady work followed by period of unemployment each year
57What type of unemployment? My aunt left her job to care for her sick mother and is now looking for work.What type of unemployment?
58What type of unemployment? My aunt left her job to care for her sick mother and is now looking for work.What type of unemployment?FRICTIONALChange jobs or get laid off (not because of the economy)
59What type of unemployment? A new, robotic teacher is developed and humans are no longer needed to teach classes. I lose my job.What type of unemployment?
60What type of unemployment? A new, robotic teacher is developed and humans are no longer needed to teach classes. I lose my job.What type of unemployment?STRUCTURALNew technology developed that makes me obsolete. My skills don’t match the job that is now available.
61What type of unemployment? I am a ski instructor. The spring thaw comes, the snow melts, the ski lifts shut down. I am out of work until the next winter snows fall.What type of unemployment?
62What type of unemployment? I am a ski instructor. The spring thaw comes, the snow melts, the ski lifts shut down. I am out of work until the next winter snows fall.What type of unemployment?SEASONALSteady work followed by period of unemployment.
63Activity – choose one.Draw a picture to represent each type of unemployment.ORWrite two journal entries or letters to the editor describing two imaginary experiences as an unemployed person. Describe the reasons for your unemployment (using details of one of the types of unemployment. You should use two types of unemployment.)Skit acting out two of the types of unemployment.Conduct an imaginary interview with people who have lost their jobs – each should be unemployed for one of the four different reasons. Use two reasons in your interviews. Write out questions and answers. You could also choose to act this out.
66INFLATION What is inflation? How is it measured? Rise in general price level – generally reported in terms of annual rate of change.How is it measured?Look at price levels (relative magnitude of prices at one point in time, usually used for comparison)To measure price level, a price index is constructed (such as Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, or implicit GDP price deflator).
67What is a price index ?Price index is a measurement that shows how the average price of a standard group of goods changes over time.Consumer Price Index – price index determined by measuring the price of a standard group of goods meant to represent the “market basket” of a typical consumer.Computed each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
68CONSUMER PRICE INDEXConsumer Price Index – price index determined by measuring the price of a standard group of goods meant to represent the “market basket” of a typical consumer.Computed each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Reports changes for about 90,000 items in 364 categories.Sampled from 85 geographically distributed areas around the country.Some items sampled in all areas, some in only a few.There are separate indices for 28 selected areas around the country.
69Price index = cost today X 100 cost in base yearPrice index is current value of a “basket” of goods and service divided by cost of same basket in base year and then multiplied by 100.Mixed basket of goods used because prices can go up or down for reasons that have nothing to do with inflation.Having a large group of representative items helps eliminate the effect of some product’s price dropping while others tend to be on the rise.Base year can be any year.Price index for the base year will always be 100.Index values over 100 indicate inflation.Index values under 100 indicate deflation.
70How is the inflation rate computed? Take the CPI for Year ASubtract the CPI for Year BMultiply by 100
71PRODUCER PRICE INDEXMeasures price changes received by domestic producers for output.Uses sample of about 3,000 commodities.Base year of 1982.Compiled for all commodities – but also broken down into subcategories – farm products, fuels, chemicals, rubber, pulp and paper, processed foods.
72IMPLICIT GDP DEFLATOR Measures price change in GDP. Has a base year of 1987 and can be used to remove the effects of inflation from GDP.Compiled quarterly, so not as useful for measuring month to month changes in inflation.
73Why is a price index used? Some measure change in price of a single item.Some measure price changes of imported goods.Others measure price changes for agricultural goods.
74Degrees of Inflation Creeping inflation Galloping inflation Range of 1-3%Galloping inflationCan go as high as %HyperinflationOut of controlIn range of 500%Doesn’t happen often – last stage before monetary collapse. (WW II – Hungary and Germany)
75Causes of InflationQuantity theory – too much money in the economy causes inflation.Demand-pull theory – demand for goods and services exceeds supply – scarcity drives up prices.Cost-push theory – producers raise prices to meet increased costs.
76Other causes:Government deficit – inflation blamed on deficit – destabilizes output and employment more than price levels, especially true if interest rates rise and borrowers are crowded out.Wage-price spiral – self-perpetuating spiral – higher prices force workers to ask for higher wages. Producers try to recover this by raising prices, which forces workers to ask for higher wages….
77Consequences of inflation Dollar buys less – purchasing power falls as prices rise.Spending habits change – disrupts the economy.Speculation increases – some people try to take advantage of higher price levels – people who usually play it safe start buying things that usually increase in price (condos, diamonds, art). Diverts spending from other channels and may cause structural unemployment.Distribution of income is altered. Lenders are usually hurt more than borrowers as loans mad earlier are repaid with dollars that have less purchasing power. Lenders can’t do as much with the repaid money. Inflation, in the long run, favors debtors more than creditors.
78Teaching Tools for MACROECONOMICS from John Stossel
81Georgia Council on Economic Education Commanding HeightsGeorgia Council on Economic Educationw w w . g c e e . o r g
82Commanding Heights On-line video Bolivia at the Brink Watch for inflation statisticsWhat did you hear that surprised you?
83InflationImagine that the price of lunch increased 1% every 10 minutes.By 4th lunch you don’t have enough money to buy a lunch! (maybe sooner!!!)
84Questions for You What is the national debt? What caused the national debt?Where does the government get the money when it wants to spend more than it takes in?What is a budget deficit?What is a budget surplus?
86Should we worry about the Demonstration LessonShould we worry about thenational debt?
87Georgia Council on Economic Education Will the national debt cause the US to go bankrupt?Are the interest payments on the debt important?What about paying off the debt by increasing taxes?Does running deficits today, and adding to the nationaldebt, put a burden on future generations?Georgia Council on Economic Educationw w w . g c e e . o r g