1. Integrated spatial scenarios on the territorial futures of Europe: Lessons for policy and research ESPON Seminar Evora, 12 November 2007 Moritz Lennert IGEAT – ULB moritz.lennert@ulb.ac.be

2. Introduction: Reminder of main messages of scenarios Main challenges for Europe's regions –globalisation –climate change –energy –demography Other challenges: socio-economic dualisation, socio-cultural tensions, congestion, pollution, etc, etc Some of the challenges are exacerbated at regional scale, compared to a EU-wide perspective

3. Part I: How is policy taking account of these challenges ? Sectoral policies Regional policies Does policy make a difference ?

4. Sectoral policies Regional aspects often totally absent... –Green Paper "Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations", COM(2005) 94 final) –(Green Paper « European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy », COM(2006) 105 final) –Promoting Solidarity between the Generations, COM(2007) 244 final...but there are recent improvements: –« A regional approach, taking into account local circumstances, should be a key element in devising a renewable energy policy. » (Renewable Energy Road Map. Renewable energies in the 21st century: building a more sustainable future - IMPACT ASSESSMENT, SEC(2006) 1719) –« The distribution of impacts of climate change is likely to be uneven. Some regions in the EU will suffer disproportionately. » (Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond, COM(2007) 2 final)

5. Regional policies: step by step Community Strategic Guidelines –challenges not explicitely present The Territorial Agenda –identifies challenges –but does not offer any innovative responses in the policy priorities The 4th Cohesion Report: challenges clearly identified Lisbon strategy imposes a too limited framework to address these challenges Need to deepen the knowledge about the territorial dimension of these challenges

6. But does policy actually make a difference ? Challenges constitute framework within which policy can act: climate change, energy issues, globalisation Territorial structures have strong inertia But policy can chose to support or to counteract some trends: –reinforce the areas with highest potentials or –support areas most lagging behind « A new paradigm is emerging where the policy is increasingly geared towards resource allocation. [...] In short, it is a dynamic process of empowerment helping overall European economic growth and competitiveness. » (D. Hübner, Fourth Cohesion Forum, Brussels, 28 September 2007 ESPON research needs to continue on the possible impacts of such a paradigm shift ESPON policy scenarios explore this question by pushing the issue to the possible extremes

7. Possible effects of a paradigm shift ?

8. PART II: From scenarios to research Issues highlighted by scenarios Some existing ESPON analyses Some open research questions

9. Globalisation: Issues highlighted by scenarios Market liberalisation at all scales –new segments of the European economy subject to internal and external competition Dualisation –stronger territorial concentration of the benefits of globalisation; increasing number of regions negatively affected Extra-European competition and FDI –sensitivity to external mergers; risk of out-migration of decision centres and high-level business functions European neighbourhood –demographic pressure from south and south-east; economic cooperation/competition and integration of economic systems

10. Globalisation: Research questions Selection of existing ESPON analyses –regional sectoral specificities (3.4.1, 3.4.2) –insertion into global networks and neighbourhood relations (3.4.1) –MASST model (3.2) –“ Lisbon capacities” (3.3) –ITC innovation (1.2.3) Selection of open questions –Identify regional insertion into global economy: tools for regional accounting –Analyse links between metropolitan areas and periphery –Identify region's sensitivity to capital mobility –Role of regions in, and impact on regions of, neighbourhood policies

11. Climate change: Issues identified by the scenarios Structural impacts: –drought in southern Europe (impacts on the economy, the environment and the production of hydro-electricity) –mountain regions dependent upon winter tourism; –potential positive impacts on the northern half of Europe (new opportunities for rural areas and for winter tourism in the Nordic countries) Impacts of natural hazards: river valleys, coastal areas, forest areas in southern Europe, but local risk is probabilistic Less prosperous regions have less resources to allocate to prevention and mitigation measures

12. Climate change: Research questions Selection of existing ESPON analyses –hazard analyses (1.3.1) Selection of open research questions –More precise evaluation of regional risks and opportunities based on different scenarios Impact of drought on economies and landscapes in Southern Europe Impact on tourism in mountain areas Climate change as opportunity for northern regions –Elaboration of more precise risk evaluation tools –Regional impact of climate change mitigation (CO 2 reduction) policies –Evaluation of regional potentials for CO 2 reduction

13. Energy: Issues identified by the scenarios Expensive energy vs rare energy Evolution of mobility and accessibility (substitution through telecom services ?); Evolution of settlements (compact cities?) Delocalisation of companies towards lower energy prices Opportunities for regions with renewable energy sources and new energy technologies Likely positive impacts on the urban environment (hydrogen technologies) Competition between food and energy production in rural areas Environmental damages resulting from intensive energy-related agriculture and forestry.

14. Energy: Research questions Selection of existing ESPON analyses –analysis of regional energy structures and needs (2.1.4) –accessibility models (1.2.1, 2.1.1, 3.2) –information society (1.2.3) Selection of open research questions –analysis of energy dependency of regions according to needs (economy, accessibility, etc) –identification of regional potentials for energy savings and renewable energy production –regional impacts of large-scale biofuel production –impacts of high energy costs on peripheral areas –analysis of the potentials of ICT to replace mobility –regional impacts of energy scarcity

15. Demography: Issues identified by the scenarios Increasing territorial differentiation of generations Impacts of population ageing / shrinking on regional labour markets Impacts of depopulation Socio-cultural evolution in large cities

16. Demography: Research questions Selection of existing ESPON analyses –analysis of different regional demographic trajectories (1.1.4) –regional demographic projections (1.1.4 and 3.2) –first overview of social issues (1.4.2) –FUAs (1.1.1 and 1.4.3) –urban-rural interactions (1.1.2) Selection of open research questions –more precise identification of the driving forces of ageing / shrinking regions in different types of regions –analysis of the specific issues related to shrinking regions –data collection for and analysis of access to services across Europe –analysis of specific potentials and issues in residential regional economies

17. An ESPON researcher's prayer Dear Gods of ESPON, You know we are your humble servants when it comes to calculating indicators for the smallest NUTS, You know we give you many pages of report for little money, So please hear our prayers: Do not overload us with burdens too heavy for poor desktop researchers' backs, Do not put more questions into the terms of reference than there members in the Monitoring Commitee, Please agree amongst your divine selves and pick the most important, the most revelevant questions for our needs, Please select and focus, Amen

18. Introduction to workshops Objective: Elaborate a list of important research questions for ESPON 3 themes: –Workshop A: Regions, resources and environment - Climate change and new energy paradigm –Workshop B: Regions and people - Ageing, shrinking regions, access to services –Workshop C: Regions and activities - Globalisation, accessibility and knowledge society Method –Amend list of (sub)challenges identified –Prioritise these challenges –Brainstorm on research questions