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Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

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Presentation on theme: "Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems."— Presentation transcript:

1 Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251

2 22 Why Focus on Higher Education?

3 33 Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength, 2005 AK GA KS ME NE NV NC OH PA RI VT FL ID MI MO NM $15,000 $22,000 $29,000 $36,000 $43,000 $50,000 1015202530354045 Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelors Degrees Correlation = 0.83 AZ DE IL MD MA NJ NY OR VA WA CA CO CT MN NH TX UT AR HI IN IA LA MT ND OK SC SD AL KY MS TN WV WI WY Personal Income Per Capita State New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Middle Tier Low Tier US

4 44 Per Capita Personal Income, 2005 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

5 55 Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. AverageNebraska, 1960-2005 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce U.S. Average

6 66 Nebraska Per Capita Personal Income, 2004 Nebraska = $32,923 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 30,253to41,219 28,068to30,253 26,799to28,068 24,303to26,799 10,628to24,303

7 77 Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Health, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; United Health Foundation

8 88 The Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Employment in the Arts, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS) Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelors Degrees, 2005 Employment in Arts and Entertainment per 1,000 Employees AK AZ AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH NM TN TX UT WV WI WY 4 8 12 16 20 152025303540

9 99 Population and Workforce

10 10 Nebraska Total Population Estimates By County, 2005 Nebraska = 1,758,163 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates 16,736to486,854 8,592to16,736 5,394to8,592 2,252to5,394 374to2,252

11 11 Population ProjectionsPercent Change, 2000-25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 85.8 93.3 -3.3

12 12 Nebraska Change in Total Population By County, 2005-2020 Nebraska = 295,274 Source: Nebraska Department of Economic Development; University of Nebraska, Bureau of Business Research 2,618to97,404 200to2,618 -135to200 -446to-135 -1,625to-446

13 13 Projected Change in Nebraska Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2000-20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 100,429

14 14 Percent of Civilian Population Age 25-64 Participating in the Workforce, 2005 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 15 Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not Participating in the WorkforceBy Education Attainment, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File U.S.Nebraska Less than High School37.029.8 High School24.719.1 Some College21.018.7 Associate Degree17.411.2 Bachelors Degree16.514.2 Graduate/Prof. Degree13.911.9

16 16 Educational Attainment and Rank Among States Nebraska, 2005 (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS 84.0% 8.9% 91.8% 10.4% 30.0%

17 17 Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

18 18 Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelors Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

19 19 Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelors Degree or Higher, 2000 Nebraska = 27.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 21.8to35.3 19.9to21.8 17.9to19.9 16.2to17.9 12.7to16.2

20 20 Gaps in Percentage of Residents Age 25-64 with a College Degree Between the Most and Least Educated Counties, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

21 21 Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree Born In-State, 2005 Source: 2005 ACS

22 22 Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with a Bachelors Degree or Higher Born In-State, 2005 Source: 2005 ACS

23 23 Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older AdultsU.S. and OECD Countries, 2005 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007

24 24 Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older AdultsU.S., 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

25 25 Percentage Differences Between Younger Adults (Age 25-34) and Older Adults (Age 45-54) with College Degrees Associate and Higher, 2005 Washington Oklahoma Florida South Carolina Oregon Maine Connecticut Colorado Texas California Nevada Idaho Alaska Arizona Vermont Hawaii New Mexico Source:U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

26 26 Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age GroupNebraska, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries Source:OECD, Education at a Glance 2007

27 27 Additional Degrees (Associate and Higher) Needed to Meet Performance of Top Country*Population Age 25-44 *In Canada, 50.13% of adults age 25-44 have college degrees (Associate and above). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD -7,798 1,175,054 1,318,974

28 28 Percent Educational Attainment of Nebraskas Young Workforce (Age 25-34)Indexed to Most Educated Country, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD MalesMalesMalesMalesMales FemalesFemalesFemalesFemalesFemales Native American/Asian/ WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic/Latino Alaska Native Pacific Islander Top Country (Norway) U.S. Index = 81% Bachelor's Degree or Higher Top Country (Canada) U.S. Index = 72% All College Degrees (Associate or Higher)

29 29 Percent Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 By Race/EthnicityNebraska, 2005 Source:U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

30 30 Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

31 31 The Student Pipeline

32 32 Student Pipeline, 2004 Source:NCES Common Core Data 2004; Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Education Opportunity; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Retention Rate File and Fall 2003 Enrollments, 2004 Graduation Rates; U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…

33 33 High School Graduation RatesPublic High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (rev. 071106)

34 34 Nebraska Projected High School Graduates By Race/Ethnicity from 2000-01 to 2017-18 Source: Western Interstate Higher Education Commission (WICHE)

35 35 College-Going RatesFirst-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07)

36 36 Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

37 37 Three-Year Graduation Rates at Two­ Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent) Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

38 38 Bachelors Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

39 39 Six-Year Graduation Rates at Four­ Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent) Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

40 40 Race/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of the Education PipelineNebraska, 2005 Source:U.S. Census Bureau; NCES Common Core of Data; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2005 Enrollments File, 2004-05 Completions File

41 41 Part-Time Undergraduates as a Percent of Population Age 25-44, 2004 Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Enrollments; U.S. Census Bureau 2004 Population Estimates

42 42 Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group Nebraska Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files 22- to 29-Year-Olds30- to 64-Year-Olds Less than High School High School Some College Associate Bachelors Graduate/ Professional Total

43 43 Migration Rate* of College-Educated Residents Age 22-64Associate and Higher, 1995-2000 * Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with college degrees. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census) Alabama Hawaii Vermont Rhode Island Kansas New York Ohio Wisconsin Mississippi Utah Indiana Oklahoma Pennsylvania Alaska Nebraska Montana Wyoming Louisiana West Virginia South Dakota Iowa North Dakota

44 44 Nebraska Net Migration of College Degree Holders Age 22-29 by Occupation, 1995 to 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5% PUMS File Primary, Secondary, & Special Education Teachers Health Diagnosing & Treating Practitioners Other Management Occupations Advertising, Mktg., Promotions, Public Rel., Sales Managers Financial Specialists Lawyers, Judges, & Related Workers Sales Representatives, Services Other Sales & Related Workers Legal Support Top Executives Information & Record Clerks Other Production Occupations Counselors, Social Workers, Other Community/Social Service Mathematical Science Occupations Engineers Cooks & Food Preparation Workers Nursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching, & Distributing Secretaries & Administrative Assistants Postsecondary Teachers

45 45 Nebraska Net Migration of College Degree Holders Age 30-64 by Occupation, 1995 to 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5% PUMS File Health Diagnosing & Treating Practitioners Primary, Secondary, & Special Education Teachers Other Management Occupations Advertising, Mktg., Promotions, Public Rel., Sales Mgrs. Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing Lawyers, Judges, & Related Workers Supervisors, Sales Workers Social Scientists & Related Workers Supervisors, Office & Administrative Support Workers Operations Specialties Managers Law Enforcement Workers Engineers Air Transportation Workers Other Military Occupations Health Technologists & Technicians Building Cleaning & Pest Control Workers Supervisors, Production Workers Business Operations Specialists Other Production Occupations First-Line Enlisted Military Supervisor/Managers Other Sales & Related Workers

46 46 Migration Rate* of Residents Age 22-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 1995-2000 * Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with less than a high school diploma. Source: State Higher Education Officers (SHEEO) Wyoming North Dakota Vermont 240

47 47 Production of College Graduates (Undergraduate Credentials and Degrees Awarded Per 1,000 Residents Age 18-44 with High School Diploma or Some College but No College Degree) States Ability to Produce Graduates vs. Ability to Keep and Attract Graduates Migration Rate of Residents Age 22-29 with a College Degree New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Middle Tier Low Tier -350 -280 -210 -140 -70 0 70 140 210 280 350 102030405060 Low Production, Importer of CapitalHigh Production, Importer of Capital Low Production, Exporter of CapitalHigh Production, Exporter of Capital AK GA KS ME NE NV NC OH PA RI VT FL ID MI MO NM AZ CA CO CT DE IL MD MA NJ NY OR UT VA WA MN NH TX AL AR HI IN IA LA MS MT ND OK SC SD TN WV WI WY KY 47

48 48 Median Earnings by Degree Level, 2005 Note:Data represent persons age 18-64 with positive earnings working 35+ hours per week. Source:U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

49 49 Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Associate Degree, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

50 50 Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a Bachelors Degree, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

51 51 Economy and Innovation Assets

52 52 Percent of Total Gross State Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

53 53 Change in Gross State Product, 1997-2004 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

54 54 Employment in High-Technology Establishments as Share of Total Employment by State, 2004 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED)

55 55 Projected Percent Change in Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Training, 2002-2012 Note: Some college, Associate, Bachelors and higher. Source: ACINet, Career InfoNet

56 56 Development Report Card for the States, 2007 Nebraska Source: Development Report Card for the States, Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED) STRENGTHS (Top 10 Rank) RankMeasure 1Air Pollution 3Affordable Urban Housing 4Change in Income from Dividends, Interest and Rent 5Health Professional Shortage Areas 6High School Attainment 6Energy Costs 7Unemployment Rate 8Change in Private Research & Dev. 8Academic Research and Development 8Change in Health Prof. Shortage Areas 9Infant Mortality 10Income Distribution 10Uninsured Low-Income Children EmploymentC Earnings and Job QualityC EquityA Quality of LifeB Resource EfficiencyC Competitiveness/Existing BusinessesB Entrepreneurial EnergyC Human ResourcesB Financial ResourcesC Infrastructure ResourcesC Amenity Resources and Natural CapitalA Innovation AssetsD Performance Business Vitality Development Capacity BCBBCB 44Federal Research and Development 47Employment Growth: Short Term 47Venture Capital Investments 49Change in Toxic Release Inventory 50PhD Scientists and Engineers WEAKNESSES (Bottom 10 Rank) RankMeasure

57 57 Overall State Scores on Measures of Innovation Assets Note:Score is calculated as sum of rankings on ten separate subindex scores. Source:Development Report Card for the States, CFED

58 58 Science and Engineering Degrees as a Share of Higher Education Degrees Conferred by State, 2004-05 Note:Science and Engineering include Agricultural Sciences, Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Physical Sciences, Science Tech, Health Sciences, Computer Science, Mathematics and Statistics, Engineering, and Engineering Tech. Degrees include Associate, Bachelors, Masters and Doctorate Degrees. Source: NCES, IPEDS 2005 Completions File; c2005_a Final Release Data File

59 59 Number of Doctorates per 1,000 Workers Science and Engineering, 2004 Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED

60 60 Nebraska RankFederal Research and Expenditures, 2005 Source: National Science Foundation 141,899 25,418 101,555 6,137 6,499 12,237 (Values in Thousands of $)

61 61 Dollar Value of SBIR Grants Per Worker, 2004 Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED 81.8

62 62 Gross License Income Per Worker, 2004 Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED 46.5

63 63 Number of Patents Issued Per $1,000 Gross State Product Source: 2004/2005 Economic Vision 2010 Report Card, Indiana Chamber 45.8

64 64 Venture CapitalFinancing Per $1,000 Gross State Product, 2003 Source: 2004/2005 Economic Vision 2010 Report Card, Indiana Chamber 8.3

65 65 The Financial Environment

66 66 Relationship Between Personal Income and Tax Revenues, 2003 AK AZ AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH NM TN TX UT WV WI WY 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 $45,000 $2,0003,0004,0005,000 Personal Income Per Capita Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita Correlation = 0.84

67 67 State Tax Capacity and EffortNebraska Indexed to U.S. Average Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MS MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD UT VT VA WA FL ID MI MN MO NH NM TN TX WV WI WY 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 0.60.81.01.21.4 State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita) State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate) US

68 68 State Tax Capacity and EffortNebraska Indexed to U.S. Average Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) U.S. Average

69 69 Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2013 Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005 Utah Montana New Hampshire Delaware New Jersey Maine Maryland Massachusetts Wisconsin Vermont Ohio North Dakota Connecticut Kansas Arkansas Virginia Nebraska Oklahoma Minnesota Colorado West Virginia Kentucky Michigan Arizona New York Georgia Hawaii Illinois Pennsylvania Alaska Rhode Island United States New Mexico California Iowa Indiana North Carolina Florida Idaho South Carolina South Dakota Missouri Washington Oregon Texas Nevada Tennessee Mississippi Louisiana Alabama

70 70 State Systems of Higher Education

71 71 Bachelors Degrees as a Percent of High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2003 NH 20 40 60 80 100 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000 AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MS MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD UT VT VA WA WI US FL ID MI MN MO NM TN TX WV WY Total Funding Per FTE Performance

72 72 Undergraduate Credentials Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2002-03 10 15 20 25 30 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000 AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MS MT NV NJ NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SD UT VT VA WA WI US FL ID MI MN MO NH NM NY SC TN TX WV WY Total Funding Per FTE Performance NE

73 73 Federal and Industry R&D Per Capita, 2002 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000 50 100 150 200 250 Total Funding Per FTE Performance 0 AL AK AZ AR CA CO DE GA HI IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MA MS MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD UT VT VA WA WI US CT FL ID MI MN MO NH NM RIRI TN TX WV WY MD ($273, $12,527)

74 74 For more information, contact Dennis Jones dennis@nchems.org and visit the National Information Center for Higher Education Policymaking and Analysis www.higheredinfo.org


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