1. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 1. Christian Spiering, DESY ASPERA-2 kickoff meeting Hamburg July 7, 2009

2. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 2. Emergence

3. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 3. science case status: overview recommendations for convergence Critical assessment of plans Calendar for milestones and decisions Input for ESFRI Roadmap Coordinated with ASTRONET

4. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 4. KM3NeT Einstein Telescope (LISA) Auger-Nord CTA Ton-scale Double Beta Ton-scale Dark Matter Megaton

5. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 5. KM3NeT Einstein Telescope (LISA) Auger-Nord CTA Ton-scale Double Beta Ton-scale Dark Matter Megaton Investment and maintenance (no personnel)

6. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 6. From Deliverable D1.2 Astroparticle Physics Particle Astrophysics > factor 3 increase over last decade

7. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 7. Requests (here without DAMA-1 ton and Frejus new lab) 6 M€ 09/11 15 M€ 11/13

8. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 8. E.T. KM3NeT Megaton CTA Auger-North Dark Matter Neutrino Mass Existing R&D, new initiatives - without DAMA and new Frejus lab - all projects shifted according to realistic estimates - CTA: 1/3 from non-Europe - KM3NeT: 250 M€  200 M€ - Megaton: Europe contributes only 200-300 M€ - DM and DBD shared with US - keep 20% for R&D and new initiatives

9. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 9. E.T. KM3NeT Megaton CTA Auger-North Dark Matter Neutrino Mass Existing R&D, new initiatives - can do it within a factor ~2 smooth increase over 8-10 years (investment) - personnel will increase by less

10. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 10. E.T. KM3NeT Megaton CTA Auger-North Dark Matter Neutrino Mass Existing R&D, new initiatives Can we do it even cheaper ?

11. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 11. KM3NeT Megaton CTAAuger DBD DM ET - further reduce CTA - further shift and reduce Megaton - further shift E.T. - somewhat reduce new initiatives Must not reduce Auger and KM3NeT. Either you build it huge or you do not build it at all ! All this is problematic !!

12. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 12. Dark Matter

13. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 13.  WIMPs  Neutralinos  Kaluza-Klein particles  …  Axinos  Super-WIMPs  Axions  Axion-like light bosons  Sterile neutrinos  Q-balls  WIMPzillas  Elementary BHs  … DM candidates: Direct Detection Indirect Detection LHC WIMPs Super WIMPs Axions & axion-like particles Q-balls BHs WIMPzillas Lasers Super WIMPs

14. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 14.  WIMPs  Neutralinos  Kaluza-Klein particles  …  Axinos  Super-WIMPs  Axions  Axion-like light bosons  Sterile neutrinos  Q-balls  WIMPzillas  Elementary BHs  … DM candidates: Direct Detection WIMPs target of roadmap recommendation

15. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 15. SUF CDMS I LiF Elegant V&VI Baksan IGEX Gran Sasso DAMA/LIBRA CRESST I/II Genius TF CUORICINO XENON WArP CanFranc IGEX ROSEBUD ANAIS LSM EDELWEISS I/II Boulby NaIAD ZEPLIN I/II/III DRIFT 1/2 Soudan CDMS II XMASS Candle KIMS ORPHEUS FNAL COUPP SNOLAB Picasso DEAP SuperCDMS ArDM DUSEL LUX CLEAN SIGN Figure from D. Bauer, TAUP

16. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 16. 10 -4 10 -10 10 -8 10 -6 Cross section (pb) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 - Background - Stability - Funding - Infrastructure

17. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 17. 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 -4 10 -10 10 -8 10 -6 Cross section (pb) We are now here

18. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 18. 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 10 -4 10 -10 10 -8 10 -6 Cross section (pb) - Background (liquids) - Stability (bolometers) Expectation late 2010: CDMS CRESST, EURECA Xenon-100 Warp-140 ….

19. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 19. CRESST Edelweiss EURECA-100 EURECA @ ton scale LXe LAr LXe … Now: 10 kg scale 2009/12: 100 kg scale 2011-17: constr. ton scale Towards ton-scale zero-background detectors modular expansion, cooperation with CDMS (USA) Darwin

20. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 20. Support current round of experiments at high priority, also technology development towards their next-generation versions A recommendation on which of the technologies should first move to a next stage can only be made after first results from present experiments with 10-100 kg target mass become available and after noise rejection and sensitivity/cost ratio for ton-scale detectors can be judged on a more realistic basis. This milestone can be reached by 2010 or 2011. As soon as one of the technologies turns out to be clearly superior in sensitivity, cost, and timing  Promote it with priority! At the same time, a second technology must be systematically prepared since a possible positive observation by the first method would call for a prompt, independent confirmation. In an ideal scenario, LHC observations of new particles at the weak scale could place these observations in a well-confined particle physics context. Also, direct detection would be supported by indirect signatures. In case of a discovery, “smoking-gun signatures” of direct detection such as directionality and annual variations would be measured in detail.

21. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 21. Properties of Neutrinos

22. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 22. Direct Mass Measurements –KATRIN, start 201 2, down to 0.2 eV –MARE R&D Double Beta Decay Experiments –See following slides Mixing Parameters – Double CHOOZ – T2K, CNGS (with European participation)

23. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 23. CANDLES XMASS DCBA SNO+ EXO MAJORANA GERDA CUORE COBRA SUPERNEMO TGV NEXT

24. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 24.

25. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 25. 201220102008200620072017201520132011200920162014 now design study construction operation construction operation NEMO-3 Super-NEMO CUORICINO CUORE bolometric 41 kg 130 Te construction operation GERDA bolometric 740 kg 130 Te tracking 8 kg 130 Mo/ 82 Se tracking 100 kg 150 Nd/ 82 Se 18  40 kg 76 Ge construction operation EXO (USA) 200 kg 130 Xe design study (Projects running, under construction or with substantial R&D funding) Roadmap presentation 08

26. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 26. 201220102008200620072017201520132011200920162014 now design study construction operation construction operation oper NEMO-3 Super-NEMO CUORICINO CUORE bolometric 41 kg 130 Te construction operation GERDA bolometric 740 kg 130 Te tracking 8 kg 130 Mo/ 82 Se tracking 100 kg 150 Nd/ 82 Se 18  40 kg 76 Ge Construct. operation EXO (USA) 200 kg 130 Xe design study (Projects running, under construction or with substantial R&D funding)

27. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 27. Priority to experiments starting operation within 5 years – GERDA (phase I and II) – CUORE – Super-NEMO Complementary nuclei/methods essential to judge any positive claim or upper limit. Will scrutinize the claimed evidence in 76 Ge, will touch the “inverted hierarchy” mass range. Other methods may become competitive in the future. At the same time, envisage an experiment on the 1-ton-isotope scale, which will peer deep into the inverted hierarchy range. Two options discussed, both with worldwide cost sharing: – GERDA III as merger of GERDA with Majorana (USA) – CUORE with enriched tellurium, USA participation. Milestone: Decision on the isotopes/ techniques 2012/13.

28. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 28. Low Energy Neutrino Astronomy and Proton Decay

29. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 29. MEMPHYS 700 kton water GLACIER 100 kton liquid argon LENA 50 kt scintillator 50 m FP7 design study

30. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 30. Proton decay: improve sensitivity by > factor 10 and test a new class of Supersymmetry models Galactic Supernova: 10 4 - 10 5 events Incredibly detailed information on the early SN phase Diffuse flux from past SN: probe cosmological star formation rate Solar neutrinos: details of the Standard Solar Model determined with percent accuracy Atmospheric neutrinos: high statistics would improve knowledge neutrino mixing and provide unique information on the neutrino mass hierarchy Geo-neutrinos: improve understanding of the Earth interior Indirect WIMP search Neutrinos from accelerators over a long baseline (also with dedicated smaller detectors): neutrino properties

31. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 31. Assess discovery potential of different options and sites and then converge to a common proposal in ~ 2010. Neccessity of a coherent approach with efforts in the USA and Japan is obvious. Worldwide coordination and cost sharing (in total 250-800 M€ per detector) Recommendation: We recommend supporting the work towards a large infrastructure for proton decay and low energy neutrino astronomy, possibly also accelerator neutrinos in long baseline experiments, in a worldwide context. Results of the LAGUNA FP7 design study are expected around 2010 and should be followed by work towards a technical design report. Depending on technology, site and worldwide cost sharing, construction could start between 2012 and 2015..

32. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 32. Assess discovery potential of different options and sites and then converge to a common proposal in ~ 2010. Neccessity of a coherent approach with efforts in the USA and Japan is obvious. Worldwide coordination and cost sharing (in total 250-800 M€ per detector) Recommendation: We recommend supporting the work towards a large infrastructure for proton decay and low energy neutrino astronomy, possibly also accelerator neutrinos in long baseline experiments, in a worldwide context. Results of the LAGUNA FP7 design study are expected around 2010 and should be followed by work towards a technical design report. Depending on technology, site and worldwide cost sharing, construction could start between 2012 and 2015..

33. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 33. The High Energy Universe

34. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 34. primary mass composition galactic sources mass composition CR astronomy, GZK physics, HE neutrinos, … galactic  extragalactic antimatter, dark matter, mass composition

35. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 35. primary mass composition galactic sources mass composition CR astronomy, GZK physics, HE neutrinos, … galactic  extragalactic antimatter, dark matter, mass composition Tantalizing results from Pamela Launch AMS June 2010 !! Auger

36. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 36. 10 6 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 2 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Fly‘s eye AGASa HiRes Auger-S Auger-N JEM-EUSO (space) Telescope Array 10 7 Exposure (km² sr year) year similar: TUS AGASA Auger South TA Auger North

37. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 37. 10 6 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 2 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Fly‘s eye AGASa HiRes Auger-S Auger-N JEM-EUSO (space) Telescope Array 10 7 Exposure (km² sr year) year similar: TUS AGASA Auger South TA Auger North Since last year: - New skymap strengthens non-isotropy - CEN-A clustering ?! - AGN correlation has weakened - Heavy composition towards HE - HE suppression confirmed - Request for Helmholtz „ignition funding“ - Decadal Review, PASAG (USA)

38. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 38. Auger-North: high statistics astronomy with reasonably fast data collection calls for a substantially larger array than Auger South, full sky coverage calls for a Northern site. A larger array would also allow a more detailed inspection of the high energy cut-off of the particle spectrum, which recently has been firmly established by Auger-South. Recommendation: The priority project for high energy cosmic ray physics is Auger. We encourage the agencies in different continents to work towards a common path for Auger- North. We recommend the construction of such a large array as soon as worldwide agreements allow.

39. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 39. 201220102008200620072017201520132011200920162014 now design, prototypes construction construction + operation operation construction operation Oper. MAGIC-I MAGIC- II H.E.S.S. H.E.S.S.- II CTA four 11-m telescopes + one 25-m telescope one 17-m telescope 2 nd 17-m telescope Coordination with USA, Japan, Australia

40. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 40. Increased sensitivity Extended energy range Improved angular resolution Observatory with flexible and robotic operation Arrays in North and South for full sky coverage 50 to 100 large, medium and small telescopes CTA

41. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 41. 200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 Design and Prototype Phase Array layout Components Telescopes Array construction VERITAS MAGIC II H.E.S.S. IIFermi Science operation Startup meeting FP7 proposal Consortium Japan will join CTA MoU with AGIS under preparation Davis-Cotton vs. Schwarzschild?

42. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 42. CTA: From “experiment” to “observatory” Expect ~ 1000 sources Ultimately, a Northern and a Southern CTA instrument, should provide full-sky coverage. Coordination with AGIS (USA)) CTA on ESFRI list and priority entry in the ASTRONET roadmap. Recommendation: The priority project of VHE gamma astrophysics is CTA. We recommend design and prototyping of CTA and selection of site(s), and proceeding decidedly towards start of deployment in 2012.

43. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 43. FP6 Design Study/Fp7 Prep. Phase oonstruction + operation construction + operation operation constrn. operation operat NT200, NT200+ ANTARES AMANDA IceCube KM3NeT GVD c + o R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO design study construction + operation operat 201220102008200620072017201520132011200920162014 now

44. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 44. FP6 Design Study/Fp7 Prep. Phase oonstruction + operation construction + operation operation constrn. operation operat NT200, NT200+ ANTARES AMANDA IceCube KM3NeT GVD c + o R&D KM3 NESTOR, NEMO design study construction + operation operat 201220102008200620072017201520132011200920162014 now ESFRI list ASTRONET priority list

45. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 45. IceCube 3/4 complete ANTARES again fully operational

46. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 46. IceCube 3/4 complete TeV-PeV PeV-EeV IceCube full sky analysis (6 months 2008) does not reveal any hint for a point source Challenges KM3NeT sensitivity !

47. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 47. factor 1000 in 15 years ! KM3NeT target 3 years Point sources: Tremendous progress in sensitivity over last decade

48. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 48. Recommendation: The priority project for high energy neutrino astronomy is KM3NeT. Encouraged by the significant technical progress of recent years, the support for working towards KM3NeT is confirmed. Resources for a Mediterranean detector should be pooled into a single optimised design for a large research infrastructure, with installation starting in 2012. The sensitivity of KM3NeT must substantially exceed that of all existing neutrino detectors including IceCube.

49. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 49. Gravitational Waves

50. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 50. Virgo/ LIGO Adv Virgo/ Adv LIGO Several to several hundred sources per year

51. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 51. 10 3 to 10 5 sources per year FP7 design study

52. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 52. ´06´07´08´09´10´11´12´13´14´15´16´17´18´19´20´21´22 Virgo GEO LIGO LISA E.T. Virgo+ LIGO+ Advanced Virgo GEO HF Advanced LIGO DSPCP Construct. Commiss. Hanford Livingston Launch Transfer data Data Now 1st Generation2nd Generation 3rd Gen. Time Chart

53. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 53. E.T.: the long-term future project of ground-based gravitational wave astronomy in Europe. European GW community has world-leading role in planning. Similar studies in Japan. First technical design and associated costing expected in 2011, followed by a ‘Preparatory Phase’. A decision on funding for the construction of E.T. will earliest after first detections with enhanced LIGO/Virgo but is most likely after collecting about a year of data with advanced LIGO/Virgo in approximately 2014/15. Targeted start of E.T. construction ~ 2017. At low frequencies: LISA (LISA-Pathfinder 2010)

54. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 54. KM3NeT Einstein Telescope (LISA) Auger-Nord CTA Ton-scale Double Beta Ton-scale Dark Matter Megaton

55. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 55. KM3NeT Einstein Telescope (LISA) Auger-Nord CTA Ton-scale Double Beta Ton-scale Dark Matter Megaton  Important funding decisions in many countries taken  1.OECD document, decadal review/PASAG, role of CERN,...  DM: ~10 -8 pb by several experiments  DBD: first results from GERDA-I  LAGUNA: DS finished, converge on sites and technologies  Cosmic rays:  First results from AMS  Auger North: 1.5x more data from Auger South  HE gammas  MAGIC-II results, hopefully HESS-2 operating  CTA prototype telescopes being constructed  HE neutrinos  2 km³ years with IceCube  Details of KM3NeT: converging to final decisions  Grav. Waves: Virgo+, Ligo+ delivering first data, advanced detectors being prepared

56. Astroparticle Physics for Europe C. Spiering, Planck 09 56. KM3NeT Einstein Telescope (LISA) Auger-Nord CTA Ton-scale Double Beta Ton-scale Dark Matter Megaton