1. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 1 Industry skills leadership The demand for skills presentation to ITF conference 2013 Dr Ganesh Nana Chief Economist Business and Economic Research Ltd 12 June 2013

3. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 3 NZ population 2003 cf 2013

4. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 4 Change in population over past ten years (2003 to 2013)

5. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 5 Change in population over next ten years (2013 to 2023)

6. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 6 Change in population and over ten years hence (2023 to 2033)

7. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 7 Summary population changes over ten year intervals 000s Total popn WAP (15+) 15-2525-5050-7070+ 2003-13 451448703625389 2013-23 441411-21110134188 2023-33 38236422140-43245 Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario

8. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 8 Change in labour force over next ten years (2013 to 2023)

9. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 9 Labour force changes 2013 to 2023 (000s) Total15-2525-5050-7070+ 301-49514862 Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario

10. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 10 Across the industries – issues, prospects and potential

11. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 11

12. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 12 Agriculture prospects/potential issues/skill requirements age of existing workforce image *remote / location business expertise *succession

13. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 13

14. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 14 Forestry prospects/potential issues/skill requirements age of existing workforce turnover of existing workforce safety remoteness

15. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 15 Mining and oil & gas prospects/potential issues/skill requirements mitigation environment effects safety remoteness

16. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 16 Manufacturing prospects/potential  issues/skill requirements wages and competitiveness business expertise primary processing new markets

17. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 17

18. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 18

19. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 19 Building and construction prospects/potential the future of NZ economy for next decade is in your hands issues/skill requirements competition for workforce from abroad safety building regulations

20. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 20 Foreign visitor nights dive

21. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 21 Yes, visitor numbers are climbing

22. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 22 But, market is changing

23. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 23 Resulting in falling yields

24. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 24 Tourism prospects/potential  issues/skill requirements customer service focus the market (is changing fast) business expertise *SMEs cf larger corporates wages

25. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 25 Other services domestic economy prospects/potential  issues/skill requirements wages / staff turnover seen as short-term option, not career competition for workforce *from other industries *from abroad

26. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 26 Population services eg. education and health prospects/potential issues/skill requirements wages age of existing staff competition for workforce from abroad

27. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 27 More generally proactive sector leadership *even in absence of growth, training required to replace existing workforce *response to ageing, mentoring, succession *response to standards and related aspects use/attraction of recent migrants *skill requirements *familiarise with NZ context ethnicity dimension

28. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 28 Summary population changes 2013 to 2023 000s Total popn WAP (15+) 15-2525-5050-7070+ Māori 90694212915 Total 441411-21110134188 Statistics NZ cyclic migration and Series 6 scenarios

29. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 29 Economic dependency ratio ratio of total popn to labour force

30. The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613 slide 30 NZ 2023 population