1. Update on Chesapeake Bay Model Upgrade Projects Blue Plains Regional Committee Briefing November 30, 2004 Presented by: Steve Bieber Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Blue Plains Regional Committee Briefing November 30, 2004 Presented by: Steve Bieber Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

2. November 30, 20042 Project Description Potomac Upgrade Potomac Upgrade –Better spatial scale to simulate water quality responses to management efforts at a local scale. –Better simulation of algal species and their impacts on water quality. –Sediment and pH- alkalinity dynamics critical to the Potomac and Anacostia will be modeled. Chesapeake Bay Upgrade Chesapeake Bay Upgrade –Sediment types and physical processes affecting sediment loads will be incorporated. –Water quality responses to sediment control actions will be more accurately reflected. –Improved sediment controls may reduce the need for WWTP upgrades.

3. November 30, 20043 Estimated Project Cost The total cost of the project is estimated to be $3,504,600 The total cost of the project is estimated to be $3,504,600 –COE providing 50% of the total estimated project cost ($1,752,300) –MDE providing not less than $1,059,500 in in-kind services COG’s commitments consist of $750,000 COG’s commitments consist of $750,000 –$150,000 over 3 years ($450K total) which was approved by the BPRC. –$300,000 of in-kind services included in COG’s Regional Water Resources Regional Fund work program.

4. November 30, 20044 Project Partners Blue Plains Users & COG Blue Plains Users & COG U.S. EPA U.S. EPA U.S. Army COE U.S. Army COE State of Maryland State of Maryland District of Columbia District of Columbia State of Virginia State of Virginia ICPRB ICPRB Univ. of Maryland Univ. of Maryland VIMS VIMS LimnoTech LimnoTech Hydroqual Hydroqual Smithsonian ERC Smithsonian ERC USGS USGS Occoquan WML Occoquan WML

5. November 30, 20045 Benefits to the Blue Plains Users Proactive involvement in the regulatory decision making process: load allocations, permit conditions, and use attainability. Proactive involvement in the regulatory decision making process: load allocations, permit conditions, and use attainability. The ability to help define management scenarios used by regulatory agencies to define nutrient and sediment load reduction requirements. The ability to help define management scenarios used by regulatory agencies to define nutrient and sediment load reduction requirements. Up front consideration of costs and model uncertainties relative to the predicted magnitude of water quality benefits. Up front consideration of costs and model uncertainties relative to the predicted magnitude of water quality benefits. Detailed capability for analyzing local water quality in the tidal fresh waters of the Potomac estuary, major embayments, and the Anacostia River. Detailed capability for analyzing local water quality in the tidal fresh waters of the Potomac estuary, major embayments, and the Anacostia River. Capability to assess local water quality impacts under different IMA flow regimes and discharge concentrations. Capability to assess local water quality impacts under different IMA flow regimes and discharge concentrations.

6. November 30, 20046 Project Schedule 2004200520062007 Recalibration Management Scenarios Assemble data and inputs Project start date was August 2003

7. November 30, 20047 Erosion Rate Measures This task involves the measurement and analysis of sediment erosion rates in the Potomac and upper Chesapeake Bay. This task involves the measurement and analysis of sediment erosion rates in the Potomac and upper Chesapeake Bay. Most fieldwork will take place in the Potomac. Most fieldwork will take place in the Potomac.

8. November 30, 20048 Light Attenuation First year of sampling program completed. Funded by ERDC SMART program First year of sampling program completed. Funded by ERDC SMART program

9. November 30, 20049 Particle Settling Velocity The goal of this phase of the project is to produce statistically sound relationships that relate concentration and sinking of mineral solids (TSS-POC) with seasonal and regional variations in plankton community structure and dynamics. The goal of this phase of the project is to produce statistically sound relationships that relate concentration and sinking of mineral solids (TSS-POC) with seasonal and regional variations in plankton community structure and dynamics. Funding to UMD (Mike Kemp) commenced May 2004 Funding to UMD (Mike Kemp) commenced May 2004 First-year report anticipated April 2005 First-year report anticipated April 2005

10. November 30, 200410 Estuarine Phosphorus Model Simulate the relationship between phosphorus loading and production and biomass of living resources in the Potomac River Estuary. Simulate the relationship between phosphorus loading and production and biomass of living resources in the Potomac River Estuary. This is key to predicting the frequency and severity of harmful algae blooms. This is key to predicting the frequency and severity of harmful algae blooms. BPRC cost-share of $300K being used for this study element. BPRC cost-share of $300K being used for this study element.

11. November 30, 200411 Hydrodynamic Model This task involves setting up and calibrating the CH3D hydrodynamic model on a revised grid suited for detailed sediment transport calculations. This task involves setting up and calibrating the CH3D hydrodynamic model on a revised grid suited for detailed sediment transport calculations. First year planned activity nearly completed. Funded by EPA First year planned activity nearly completed. Funded by EPA Grid completed and approved after multiple revisions Grid completed and approved after multiple revisions Model is running for three years, 1993, 1994, 1997. Undergoing examination. Model is running for three years, 1993, 1994, 1997. Undergoing examination.

12. November 30, 200412 Boundary Layer Dynamics This task involves developing algorithms to better characterize sediment resuspension occurring at the very thin sediment – water boundary layer. This task involves developing algorithms to better characterize sediment resuspension occurring at the very thin sediment – water boundary layer. MDE is funding VIMS for this activity. MDE is funding VIMS for this activity. –Contracting is completed. Work is underway –Planned work reviewed by Modeling Subcommittee and revised by PIs

13. November 30, 200413 pH - Alkalinity This task involves developing a mathematical modeling framework that relates pH to nutrient loading, primary production, and other factors. This task involves developing a mathematical modeling framework that relates pH to nutrient loading, primary production, and other factors. –This relates directly to the investigation of harmful algae blooms in the Potomac. –The Potomac Estuary is listed as impaired for violating the pH water quality criteria. Field investigation of pH effects on sediment phosphorus release commenced April 2004. Completion summer 2005. Field investigation of pH effects on sediment phosphorus release commenced April 2004. Completion summer 2005.

14. November 30, 200414 Other Activities Anacostia Monitoring – MDE cost share. Three-year project; 1 year monitoring completed. Anacostia Monitoring – MDE cost share. Three-year project; 1 year monitoring completed. Fall-line monitoring – COG cost share. Ongoing program – contract in place. Fall-line monitoring – COG cost share. Ongoing program – contract in place. Surface Waves – Activity to commence in first project year. EPA funds in hand. Surface Waves – Activity to commence in first project year. EPA funds in hand.

15. November 30, 200415 Other Activities (Cont’d) Bank Loads – Spatially detailed estimates of shoreline erosion will be created for the upper bay and Potomac. Bank Loads – Spatially detailed estimates of shoreline erosion will be created for the upper bay and Potomac. Linkage to Water Quality Model will require major code development and testing. Linkage to Water Quality Model will require major code development and testing.

16. November 30, 200416 Other Activities (Cont’d) Algal Speciation – objective of this work is to refine and improve the representation of algal speciation, sources, dynamics and food web interactions in the Potomac portion of the Bay model. Algal Speciation – objective of this work is to refine and improve the representation of algal speciation, sources, dynamics and food web interactions in the Potomac portion of the Bay model. Phase 5 Watershed Model - distributes flows and solids loads to the Potomac and upper Bay. Phase 5 Watershed Model - distributes flows and solids loads to the Potomac and upper Bay. Anacostia Stream Bank Erosion – better estimates of sediment inputs from streams. Anacostia Stream Bank Erosion – better estimates of sediment inputs from streams.

17. November 30, 200417 Other Activities (Cont’d) Living Resource Modeling - This task involves direct modeling of interactions between suspended solids and living resources. Emphasis will be placed on benthos and submerged aquatic vegetation. Living Resource Modeling - This task involves direct modeling of interactions between suspended solids and living resources. Emphasis will be placed on benthos and submerged aquatic vegetation.