1. Looking Back in Time Through Marine Ecosystem Space: Top Predator Perspectives on Climate and Change in the Western Antarctic Peninsula William R. Fraser Polar Oceans Research Group Sheridan, Montana

2. LTER Operational Area and Climate Migration… - From Anvers to Charcot Islands = 150,000 km 2 - Anvers Is. (Palmer Station and Remote Field Camps) - Avian Is. (Remote Field Camp), Charcot Is. (Ship Access Only) Anvers Is. Avian Is. Charcot Is. Antarctic Climate Cold-Dry Sub-Antarctic Climate Warm-Moist Climate Migration

3. Anvers Is. Avian Is. Charcot Is. Trends in regional sea ice conditions are driving major changes in the structure (and function?) of the WAP marine ecosystem, such that a Sub-Antarctic system is replacing an Antarctic system on a north to south gradient. The Palmer LTER is on the ground floor of these changes.

4. Anvers Is. Avian Is. Charcot Is. Primary Production Montes-Hugo et al. 2009

5. Anvers Is. Avian Is. Charcot Is. Forage Fish FUNCTIONALLY EXTINCT

6. Anvers Is. Avian Is. Charcot Is. Top Predators

7. Schofield et al. 2013 Submitted Canyon hypothesis…ecosystem structure and structured ecosystem change…

8. Life History Strategies of Top Predators and Their Prey Marine ecosystems select the life histories of the species that populate them Verity & Smetacek 1996 Ice- intolerant Ice- dependent Weddell Seal Emperor Penguin Ad é lie Penguin Antarctic Silverfish Southern Elephant Seal Southern Fur Seal Chinstrap Penguin Gentoo Penguin Lanternfish Antarctic Krill

9. Ice- intolerant Ice- dependent Population trends of ice-dependent versus ice-intolerant species, Anvers Island, 1974-2010. FUNCTIONALLY EXTINCT A 7-year “transition” between dominant life history types, 1988- 1995.

10. Schofield et al. 2013 Submitted Canyon hypothesis…ecosystem structure and structured ecosystem change…

11. The Palmer Deep off Anvers Island ANVERS IS E. Domack Hypothesis testing…what are the biophysical dynamics and do they provide predictability over ecological time scale (decades to centuries)?

12. Anvers Is E. Domack Hypothesis testing…Adelie penguin foraging distributions are predictable in time and space over decadal scales….

13. AVIAN IS Krill Lifespan 6-7 Years Ice Cycles 4-5 Years Ice Cycles > 7 Years Ecosystem Collapses? Hypothesis testing…krill availability is cyclical and predictable in time and space over decadal scales….

14. Anvers Is. Avian Is. Charcot Is. Hypothesis testing…structured ecosystem change…is another “fish event” in our future? FUNCTIONALLY EXTINCT

15. Ice- dependent Ice- intolerant Hypothesis testing…and what will be the result of this fish event if it occurs?....do canyons provide the laser-focus to understand these processes?

16. Acknowledgements Hosts. ASCASC Financial Support. National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation NOAA, NASA and Private DonorsNOAA, NASA and Private Donors Associated Programs. D.F. Parmelee, U. of MND.F. Parmelee, U. of MN D.G. Ainley, PRBOD.G. Ainley, PRBO Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research ProgramPalmer Long-Term Ecological Research Program Southern Ocean GLOBEC ProgramSouthern Ocean GLOBEC ProgramLogistics. Holmes & NarverHolmes & Narver ITT Antarctic ServicesITT Antarctic Services Antarctic Support AssociatesAntarctic Support Associates Raytheon Polar Services CompanyRaytheon Polar Services Company RV Hero, Rieber Shipping and Edison ChouestRV Hero, Rieber Shipping and Edison Chouest Palmer Station Field Teams Palmer Station Field Teams