1. Space, Relativity, and Uncertainty in Ecosystem Assessment of Everglades Restoration Scenarios Michael M. Fuller, Louis J. Gross, Scott M. Duke-Sylvester, and Mark Palmer

2. Background and Need General Approach to Scenario Comparison Specific Example: Everglades Restudy Area Multi-Species Approach Methodology Results of Analysis Summary & Conclusions Relative Assessment of Management Scenarios

3. Balancing the needs of multiple stakeholders Policy decisions based on inputs from: Urban Resource Agencies (water districts, air quality depts, etc) Farmers and Industry (fisheries, timber companies, etc). Conservation Organizations (Audubon, NRDC, etc.) Governing Bodies (municipal, county, state, federal - politcal) Natural Area Managers (National Parks, etc) Natural systems are complex; Uncertainty is high Problem: Solution: use models to: Better understand natural systems. Test sensitivity of system to different variables. Forecast future state of system.

4. Models can have complex structure EXAMPLE: SESI Model Alligator & Everglades Hydrology Many potential sources of error Reproduction: nesting, mating Many parameters Spatially Explicit Species Index Several alternative hydrology plans

5. Evaluate variation in input data or parameter settings Incorporate uncertainty into analyses using hypothetical data SA used to rank alternative management plans. Scenario Analysis Predict effects of alternative management plans. Investigate changes in conditions or environmental impacts.

6. Evaluate variation in input data or parameter settings Incorporate uncertainty into analyses using hypothetical data SA used to rank alternative management plans. Scenario Analysis PROJECT (forecast) effects of alternative management plans. Investigate changes in conditions or environmental impacts.

7. SA assumes that interactions between model components, and error propagation, is similar for different scenarios, Uncertainty in how models respond to alternative scenarios can expose policy decisions to unexpected system behavior. How can we reduce uncertainty?

8. A tool for testing the assumptions about model behavior. Relative Assessment Does rank order of management plan change with different Input data or parameter scenarios? Reduce uncertainty of model behavior Comparison requires a specific assessment criterion A metric for ranking alternatives in order of preference

9. Using relative assessment for Everglades Restoration Does rank order of alternatives change? Compare alternative hydrology plans under consideration. Scenario analysis used to rank alternatives Relative assessment to reduce uncertainty. General Approach Vary the input data and parameter settings. Multi-species comparison.

10. Central and South Florida Project Comprehensive Review Study Three natural areas in southern Florida: Two management alternatives: F2050 & D13R Study System Everglades National Park Big Cypress Restudy area F2050 = Baseline

11. 4 Species + 2 wading bird guilds ATLSS Spatially Explicit Index Models Study System Assessment Criterion

12. Species and Geographic Subregions

13. Constructing Alligator Nest Parameter Scenarios Average over space & time

14. Constructing Climate I Data All species groups. Criterion: SESI Value Difference between F2050 & D13R Average over space & time

15. Constructing Climate II Data Simulate 30 years of water level data. 1) Increase rainfall by 25 percent 2) Decrease rainfall by 25 percent Baseline Data: 30 year historic pattern. Experimental Data Comparison for all species groups. Criterion: SESI Value Difference between F2050 & D13R D = F2050 - D13R

16. Summary of Scenarios and Treatments

17. Effect of Random Variation in Model Parameters No rank reversals D = F2050 - D13R

18. Climate Change Effects Difference between F2050 & D13R Criterion: SESI Value D = 0 (No difference) Baseline Increase level D = F2050 - D13R D13R F2050 Decrease level For each species: D < 0D > 0

19. Effect of Simulated Climate on Scenario Ranking

20. Effect of Simulated Climate Shift on Scenario Ranking

21. Summary of Effect on Rank Order of Hydrologic Scenarios Substantial variation in parameters = no reversals in rank order Substantial variation in rainfall pattern = reversals in rank order American Alligator All Species Groups

22. Recap Compare rank order of alternatives. Compare alternative hydrology plans. Scenario analysis useful for ranking alternatives Relative assessment helps reduce uncertainty. Summary Construct hypothetical climate patterns from historic data. General Approach Change in climate patterns caused some rank reversals. Alligator SESI not affected by parameter variation Results Randomly vary nesting parameters (alligator).