1. Question: How good are we at predicting natural disasters? Red River Flood at Grand Forks, North Dakota, 1997 Hurricane Mitch, 1998

2. Answer: Not very

3. How Natural are Natural Disasters? Hazards and a changing environment are intimately linked Changing environment is linked to human- induced global warming Our society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to any disaster

4. A combination of (1) greater reliance on fragile infrastructures of increasing vulnerability, (2) population growth in coastal floodplains, and (3) global-warming influences suggests that more of the population will be affected by natural disasters in the future (McGuire, Mason, and Kilburn)

5. The frequency and strength of El Niño events has increased, and this increase has occurred in association with global warming

6. Global warming since 1880 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global )www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global

7. Global warming is particularly intense in the Arctic regions

8. The 1998 Ice Storm inflicted 5 billion dollars in economic damage in Both Canada and the US It occurred during the 1998 El Niño event (global warming) It would not have had as much economic impact 100 years ago (increasing vulnerability of society)

9. Hurricane Andrew spawned the growth of the reinsurance industry (reinsurers insure insurance companies against catastrophic losses)

10. Damage inflicted by Juan to Nova Scotia (Sept. 30, 2003); courtesy of Environment Canada

11. Juan was only a Category 1 hurricane Much stronger hurricanes will affect these same areas…it is only a question of ‘when’, and not ‘if’ such an event will occur

12. Global warming is also associated with an increase in Sea-surface temperatures An increase in SST will result in more, particularly intense hurricanes It is inevitable that stronger hurricanes will strike a coastal city (recall that Andrew’s 30 billion dollar price tag would have been up to 100 billion had it shifted its track just a few km)

13. In fact, the 2005 Hurricane season was the most active on record. Consider Katrina of 2005. Current estimates of economic losses exceed 100 billion dollars (US).

14. Katrina, Monday 29 August 2005, 0715 hours Zulu time

15. Courtesy Washington Post

17. Katrina reaches Montreal

18. Megacities are practically predestined for risks. Whether the risks are natural catastrophes, weather, environment, health or terrorism, megacities are more vulnerable than rural areas. -Munich Re Fragile cities

19. Growth of megacities, 1950-2015

20. The three most costly (people and economics) disasters in history? World Trade Center, New York, 2001 Banda Aceh earthquake and tsunami, 2004 Hurricane Katrina, 2005 Implications for cities and megacities

21. Additional meteorological hazards associated with a changing climate More tornadoes (increased water vapour from warmer SSTs) More intense mid-latitude (winter) storms More wet spells and probability of flooding (increased precipitation at middle latitudes in the winter) More drought (less soil moisture in the summer)

22. Sea level rise (New York City)

25. Human actions

26. California wildfires October 2003

29. Scripps ranch subdivision near San Diego: urban penetration into chaparral forest

30. A pocket of the Scripps Ranch subdivision that by luck survived

31. Treat yourself to a nice vacation you so richly deserve...

32. …while it’s still around

33. Consider the fate of a similarly-esteemed building from Camille in 1969:

34. Desperate measures on east coast beaches (Westhampton beach, Long Island, New York) 3 Jan 1993, a few weeks after Dec 92 storm 2 inlets opened 6 Aug 1993 Top inlet more open, bottom inlet closed artificially

35. 1996: after beach restoration (millions of dollars) 2000: beach “restored”, complete with (vulnerable) houses

36. Living on the edge: near San Francisco

37. Unbridled development near San Francisco: implications for earthquake (and landslide, fire) vulnerability 1950 map1980 map

38. What to do?

39. Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation During 1990’s, natural disasters (floods, droughts, earthquakes, storms, strong winds, torrential rains, and mudslides) hit the world 500-800 times a year and cost more than $600 billion –More than previous four decades combined Loses by location in the 1990’s –45% were in Asia –30% in US –10% in Europe Human impact –2 billion people affected –400,000 – 500,000 killed (more than 2/3 in Asia) –½ deaths from floods, with earthquakes the next-largest killer

40. Ignorance, Apathy, Indifference

41. Conclusions Meteorological events are likely to increase because of human-induced global warming The impacts of these events are likely to be greater because an increase in vulnerability –Greater percentage of population moving into floodplain and coastal regions –Lack of monetary resources to build safe housing in such areas –Lack of education to build an awareness of any threat to the community by natural hazards