Presentation on theme: "California Climate Observations: CalSat"— Presentation transcript:
1California Climate Observations: CalSat Appreciate the opportunityI speak for my staff that these folks are passionate about what they see as their mission, which is saving the planetAirplane ride - switching seatsCalifornia Climate Observations: CalSatRandy Friedl, Jet Propulsion LabSteve Hipskind, Ames Research Center
2Outline • California Climate Assessments / Issues • Observation needs • Observation capabilities• Observation strategyAircraft, including UAS - (e.g., Global Hawk)LEO (e.g., QuikSCAT)LEO constellation (NASA EOS, GPS, DMC, RapidEye)GEO (NOAA GOES)L1 (DSCOVR)• ROM Costs• Recommendations
5Science Challenges Require High Spatial and Temporal Measurements and Models GCM grid ~ kmRCM grid ~ kmAircraft & Satellite resolution~ 0.1 – 100 kmSource: R. Rood, U. Mich.
6NASA’s Earth Science Satellites The U.S. has a highly capable observing system for global scale climate changeNASA and NOAA have 29 spacecraft and over 120 instruments currently observing the Earth systemNRC notes that this capability will decrease dramatically over next ten years, even if U.S. implements NRC Decadal Survey recommendationsNASA’s Earth Science Satellites
9Observation Strategy Airborne Space based Conventional Aircraft Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)AirshipsBalloonsSpace basedLow Earth Orbit (LEO)Single spacecraftLEO ConstellationMedium Earth Orbit (MEO)Geostationary Orbit (GEO)Langrange Point (L1)
10California: ER-2 Coverage from Two Missions Aircraft Enable Flexible Observation StrategySignificant trade-offs between spatial and temporal coverage for given number of flight hoursRed: Flight8 August 2003Blue: Flight11 August 2003(7 Flight hours each)Flight Line Spacing:12nm / 23km5 flights needed to fully cover stateTotal Flight Time: 35 hoursMASTERRC-10
11Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Trades Temporal for Spatial Coverage 600km Swath1km Resolution561km Altitude, SunsynchronousAt least once-daily coverage of all of California (twice daily for some parts of northern California)Daily coverage of US pacific cost, and California BajaDaily coverage of nearly the entire US east costSparse global coverage including:UK, France, Spain, Japan, China, RussiaComplete Daily coverage of polar regions between 70° and 84° LatitudeNon-sun synchronous orbits open up more coverage possibilities
12The NASA LEO Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) Mission will travel over California 6 times every 16 daysThe green lines represent OCO flight paths over California and neighboring land and ocean regionsThese flight paths are repeated every 16 days~2 weeks between exact revisits5 days between nearest neighbor pathsOCO makes more than 20,000 measurements over California every monthClouds and aerosols will prevent many measurements from sampling all the way to the surfaceMeasurements from flight paths over the land and ocean regions surrounding California can establish the net flow of CO2 emissions in and out of the stateIn its standard survey mode, OCO will be able to detect XCO2 variations as small a 1 ppm out of 380 ppm (0.3%) in a single sounding over bright surfacesThis corresponds to CO2 sources produced by burning as little as 7500 gallons of gasoline or diesel (<2 tanker trucks)OCO should easily detect heavy traffic patterns over major urban areas123456
13Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) provides Spatial – Temporal Compromise MEO altitudes are between ~1500 – kmCombining MEO orbit with wide swath (~1000 km) instrument can provide up to 6 passes over California per day
14Molniya Orbit Provides Longer Regional View A highly elliptic orbit with 63.4° inclination and ~12 hour orbital period. Satellite spends ~ half day over a designated area of the earth. Orbital altitude is near 40,000 km.
15Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) Provides Constant View of Full Disk GEO altitude is ~35,000 kmFull Disk GOES Image (+/- 65°)Provides ability to stare at given region; provides high temporal resolutionIdeal for tracking fast moving events such as forest fires
16California: ER-2 Coverage from Two Missions Langrange point (L1) provides full, daytime view of EarthL1 Orbit is ~1.5 million km from Earth; undergoes 4-15 degree Lissajous orbitDSCOVR was planned to provide first Earth observations from L1 (e.g. O3, aerosols, water)Federal/Industrial partnership being studied for DSCOVR
17Comparison of Earth Views from GEO and L1 Optics at GEO. The blue circle represents a 1 degree half angle that covers California and the green circle represents a 4 degree half angle to cover the continental US.Optics at L1. The red circle represents a 0.1 degree half angle to cover California.
18Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Costs* 5 Year MissionCalifornia Coverage (~4x105Km2-hr/day)AirborneConventional Aircraft ($10M/Year) $50M 1Space basedLow Earth Orbit (LEO)Single spacecraft $50-150MMedium Earth Orbit (MEO) $150MGeostationary Orbit (GEO) or Molniya $300M 24(Potential for co-launch oncommercial spacecraft) $50MLangrange Point (L1) $300M 12(DISCOVR refurbishment andcommercial partnership) $30M*Assumes creative, cost-effective implementation strategies
19Gas and Particle Concentrations Air Quality Predictions Maximizing Observational Assets for Regional Change Requires Clear Science Goals and Detailed System EngineeringGas and Particle ConcentrationsPollutant DataAir Quality Predictions
20RecommendationA robust regional climate observing system does not currently exist and will require integration of spaceborne, aircraft and groundbased measurement approaches.Development of a regional observing system must be done in concert with development of regional modeling capabilities that are firmly tied to global climate model input.An in-depth analysis of regional observing requirements should be pursued, along with a more detailed analysis of observing options that would be cost effective for state.Regional observation strategies should leverage the substantial Federal investment in global scale observations. State options could include state satellite launch, joining or initiating a consortium or buying data commercially.
22California Economy Ranking The World Fact Book (CIA)The rankings are:1. the combined United States2. China3. Japan4. India5. Germany6. United Kingdom7. France8. Italy9. Russia10. California11. Brazil12. Canada13. Mexico14. Spain15. South Korea(2005 estimates)California Legislative Analyst's OfficeThe rankings are:1. the combined United States2. Japan3. Germany4. United Kingdom5. France 6. California7. Italy8. China9. Canada10. Spain(2004 data)
23Countries w/ Earth Observing Satellites US (Government & Commercial)RussiaEuropean Space AgencyUKFranceGermanyIsraelThailandSingaporeTaiwanChinaBrazilKoreaJapanIndiaAlgeriaNigeriaTurkey
24Low Cost Earth Observing Options Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC)Multi country consortiumModerate resolution LANDSAT type observationsLow cost satellites (<$20M)Each country pays for their satellite, shares data with consortiumMembers: UK, China, Algeria, Nigeria, TurkeySurrey Satellite Technology, LTD build and launch satellitesRapidEyeCommercial ventureHigh resolution (6m), multi-spectral observationsTargeted for agricultural applicationsLow cost for imagery compared to current providers ($1/km2)Cost to cover California ~$400K (~400K km2)
26Earth Observing Satellites (NASA EOS) FLAGSHIP MISSIONS* Terra (EOS AM-1)* Aqua (EOS PM-1)* Aura* TRMM* Jason 1EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE PATHFINDER (ESSP - PI led missions)* GRACE* IceSAT* Cloudsat/CALIPSO* OCO* Aquarius