1. How do Materials Affect Energy Sustainability ? Energy Limits Materials Availability esp. Sustainable Availability ✔ but …. Do Materials Limit Energy Availability, esp. Sustainable Availability ? Igor Lubomirsky and David Cahen

2. but what about the inverse i.e., does sustainable materials availability affect sustainable energy availability ? How will transitioning to new energy technologies affect materials production and consumption? Do we have the technological abilities to adapt? If yes, how? Sustainable Energy availability defines the range of Materials that can be used sustainably

3. World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, 1973-2010 Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.

4. More than 90% of coal is used for three purposes only: Electricity Steel Cement

5. Energy prices are not independent If one energy source becomes more expensive, then other sources follow. Despite high specialization…

6. http://www.metalprices.com/pubcharts/Public/Aluminum_Price_Charts.asp http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/oil No oil is used for aluminum production Should the price of aluminum correlate with the price of oil? Why? High energy price diverts some electricity used from aluminum production to other uses

7. If a technologically and economically viable energy alternative exists, can it be implemented and if it can, to what extent* and how fast?** ------------------------------------- * ≤ few %, or 10  few 10s of % of global energy use ? ** weeks, months, years, decades ? Why do we have to consider these questions ?

8. Questions: 1.How much energy can be diverted without major disruptions to living standards? how flexible is energy consumption structure? 2. Can limitations on materials availability affect (energy) technology transitions ? Postulate Transition to new technologies requires diversion of materials and energy

9. Well.. what is energy used for? ( = most of the “industry” part) 2010 Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.

10. Can some of this energy be redirected? Consider Transportation (nearly 30% of total)? Only ~8% of personal fuel consumption is “ purely ” recreational (~1.6% of all transportation, 0.5 % of total) ! “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010) Energy usage in transportation in the US 2010

11. Residential? (~ 25 % of total) Major fraction (>85%) is for heating and air conditioning. Commercial services? (~ 10 % of total) Energy consumption can be cut … at expense of important services ----------------------------------------------- From past* experience ~10% (  3.5% of total) *: e.g., 2008/9 Can some residential or commercial services energy use be redirected? “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010)

12. Can some of the energy for materials processing be redirected? “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010)

13. Production of 5 materials requires > 50% of all energy for industry / materials processing (Haber-Bosch) (Hall-Héroult) 2010 1.3% (6%) 1.4% (7%) 2% (10%) 6% (30%) > 4% (> 30%) 3% (15%) Because these 5 materials are vital, only a small part of the energy used for industry can be really diverted

14. Can energy expenses for materials processing decrease with time? YES, but it takes time…* * e.g., 3-D Printing

15. Decreasing energy cost of material extraction from ore pig iron Al smelting energy intensity (MJ/kg) production (x 10 6 tonnes) 1800 1890 2008 TD limit 0000000 TD limit 2009 from :

16. embodied energy (MJ/kg) Price of material (US$/kg) From: The importance of “embodied energy” of materials embodied energy (MJ/kg) Dilution (1/concentration)(x10 6 tonnes) embodied energy (MJ/kg) world production/consumption (x10 6 tonnes)

17. Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase. WHY? because improved extraction technology is offset by decreased quality and ore exhaustion Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials.. Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006). COPPER Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase,

18. and because of increased energy cost of extraction with decreasing ore quality Energy and greenhouse gas implications of deteriorating quality ore reserves; T.Norgate and S. Jahanshahi; CSIRO Minerals/Centre for Sustainable Resource Processing; URL : http://www.minerals.csiro.au Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase, COPPER

19. Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase, Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials.. Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006). COPPER because discovery of new ores does not compensate for exhaustion

20. Can materials consumption be restricted by increased efficiency of their use?

21. Material intensity * decreases steadily * quantity of materials per unit of product decreases) USA UK Japan Does it mean that materials consumption will decrease? F.Krausmann et al… The socio-metabolic transition. Long term historical trends...

22. Mineral/fossil Biomass Well,…materials consumption / capita INCREASES because … living standards rise Krausmann at al… 2009 Domestic Materials Consumption

23. and, thus, absolute materials consumption accelerates exponentially F. Krausmann, …., M. Fischer-Kowalski, Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century, Ecological Economics, 68(10), 2696-2705 (2009). also per capita !!

24. Can materials consumption be restricted by increased efficiency of their use? Maybe, but it’ll take time…

25. Availability of materials Can supply of materials be increased rapidly if technological need arises?

26. Natural Abundance of Elements in Earth’s Crust can be misleading

27. Price scales as a power law with abundance John R. Boyce, Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources

28. from Cu from Zn from Cu-Mo Low price relative to abundance from Zn from Zn, Cu, Pd Price scales as a power law with abundance

29. Production volumes should also scale with abundance Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others

30. Can the supply of materials that are (mining) by-products* be increased rapidly if technological need arises? by-products * contrast Se, Te, Ga, Cd,In,with primary (mining) products such as Fe, Cu, Al, Zn, Sn, Pb, cement, phosphate Availability of materials produced as

31. How does the need for materials that use mining by-products affect abilities to switch to renewable energy sources?

32. materials for solar cells (valid until we pro-/re-gress[ed] to Pb…) Let’s look at

33. L. Peter, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 1840–1856 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0348 Data for some thin film “PV elements” ppm $ / tonne Material’s availability for (thin film) PV: CdTe, CIGS tonnes/yr Annual production of some “PV elements” ABUNDANCE in earth’s crust COST

34. Annual production of Te in 2010 is 150 tonne (from Cu refinement) Current recovery rate is 33–40% Increasing installed CdTe PV capacity from current 0.01 TW p e to 0.1 TW p e requires a few times increase in Cu production. In 2008 Cu production used 0.08% of world energy. Increasing production by a few times will not be possible (quickly). Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey) and Fthenakis, V.: Sustainability metrics for extending thin- film photovoltaics to terawatt levels, MRS Bulletin, 37(4), 425 (2012).

35. ResourceAvailability, in metric tonsYears to exhaustion with the current consumption rate and technology Annual production including recycling Known resources Indium (Zn,Al) 2010574N/AProbably <10 Gallium (Al, Zn) 2008184N/AProbably <10 Tellurium (Cu) 201015522,000140 Selenium (Cu) 2009 (US declined to disclose) 2,28088,00039 Cadmium (Zn) 201022,000660,00030 Similar calculations can be done for other materials Increase in Ga (or In) production requires increase in Al production Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey) How large can the increase be? Only 10% of Al producers extract Ga Seems practically impossible But Si, Ti, Pb and organics… are available in really large quantities

36. Approximate energy cost production (GJ t -1 ) Primary products Aluminum188 Steel29 Copper135 Cement6 Iron ore3 Lead31 Zinc76 Phosphate0.35 Secondary products Gallium50 Germanium40 Indium40 Selenium116 Tellurium116 Cadmium4.5 36 Listed energy cost of the byproducts (excluding price of primary product) Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..

37. (large) increase in by-product production requires (large) increase in production of corresponding primary product maybe possible (or find alternatives), but not on short time* scales So, where does this leave us? * weeks /months/few years

38. Can recycling help? Yes, at least partially Current recycling Apparent Extraction Level (%)Efficiency (%) Pb >90 2 Fe 55-6523 Al 40-5015 Sn >50 12 Mg >40 7 Cu >25 3 Asphalt >75 -- (in USA) Ammonia (fertilizer) none -- Cement (  concrete) minor -- 2010

39. But sizeable fraction of materials (still) can’t be / aren’t recycled Recycled already >50% (Haber-Bosch) (Hall-Héroult)

40. 1.We will need time to have flexibility in our ability to divert energy resources to new technologies. 2.Whether or not we can increase production of materials will depend on abundance and on if they are by-products. 3.Recycling can provide partial relief for a lot, though not all “major” materials. Conclusions: Sustainable energy availability  sustainable materials availability?Sustainable energy availability is not exactly or always sustainable materials availability So, here is your challenge: We need new ideas