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 PNA Winter correlated with globally gridded temperatures (Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) averages 1950-2011) (Monthly means)

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Presentation on theme: " PNA Winter correlated with globally gridded temperatures (Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) averages 1950-2011) (Monthly means)"— Presentation transcript:

1  PNA Winter correlated with globally gridded temperatures (Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) averages 1950-2011) (Monthly means)

2 x Calculated T-value In this example the T value is conform with the null hypothesis that there is no correlation. We accept H 0 at the chosen two sided significance test-level of p (for example 0.05).

3 x Calculated T-value In this example the T value is unusually far in the tails of the theoretical T-distribution for a zero correlation. We reject H 0 at the chosen two sided significance test-level of p (for example 0.05) and say: there is a significant correlation at the (two-sided) 5-% significance level

4  PNA Winter correlated with globally gridded temperatures (Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) averages 1950-2011) (Monthly means) Masked out non-significant correlations (two-sided t-test at 5% level)

5

6 ENSO Index: Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures Seasonal forcast outlook: El Nino is coming!

7 Source: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ (retrieved 2014-04-30) 7 days

8 Source: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ (retrieved 2014-04-30) 12 months 1 week

9 Source: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ (retrieved 2014-04-30) 60 years 1 year

10 Source: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ (retrieved 2014-04-30) 300 years 60 years

11 Source: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ (retrieved 2014-04-30) 800 ?

12 Source: http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ (retrieved 2014-04-30) 800,000 years 300 years Reconstructions from air bubbles trapped in Antarctic Ice Cores

13  Atmospheric Environmental sciences study processes on a wide range of time scales! from tenth of seconds in turbulence (or even less, e.g. lightning processes )  Weather (hours to weeks)  Seasonal variability (weeks to months)  Climate variability (years-decades)  Ice age cycles (10-100,000 years)  Geological processes (plate tectonics) > 10,000,000yrs

14  Atmospheric Environmental sciences study processes on a wide range of time scales!  The sampling rate at which we observe these processes must match the typical time-scales of the variations

15  http://youtu.be/UkotZy3lQqo http://youtu.be/UkotZy3lQqo

16  scripts:  rmean.R  timeseries_noise1.R  timeseries_record1.R  timeseries_pna_daily.R  timeseries_co2_800000.R  timeseries_insolation_800000.R  data:  norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii20140226.csv  timeseries_co2_800000.asc  timeseries_insolation_JJA_800000.asc  sound_staple1.csv  sound_plasticbag1.csv  sound_noisy_tone1.csv  sound_water_fountain_sample.csv


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