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BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  Comments on Scenarios for health expenditures in some NMS Markus Schneider.

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Presentation on theme: "BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  Comments on Scenarios for health expenditures in some NMS Markus Schneider."— Presentation transcript:

1 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de Comments on Scenarios for health expenditures in some NMS Markus Schneider

2 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de Issues of long-term projections of health care expenditures in NMS (1)Convergence in health status (2)Convergence in income (3)Convergence in health expenditures (4)Convergence in health financing

3 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de (1) Convergence in health status (2004-2050) Life expectancy (AWP/AHEAD)

4 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de (1) Convergence in health status (1994-2004) Annual growth of life expectancy, male at birth (Eurostat)

5 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de (2) Convergence in income (2005-2050) Annual growth of GDP per capita (AWP/AHEAD)

6 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de (3) Convergence in health care (2004-2050) Public Health Expenditures

7 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de (3) Convergence in health expenditures (1994-2004) Annual growth of THE as % of GDP (various sources)

8 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de (4) Convergence in health financing (2004-2050) Public Health Revenues

9 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de (4) Convergence in health care financing

10 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de Results of AHEAD long-term projections of health care expenditures in NMS (1)Convergence in health status: yes (2)Convergence in income: yes (3)Convergence in health expenditures yes/? (4)Convergence in health financing no/?

11 BASYS  AHEAD Conference Brussels, June 28-29, 2007  ms@basys.de Some conclusions Make convergence assumptions clear Make challenges of demographic change clear for change of structure of health care provision Link expenditures and financing Introduce covergence activities Make health status dependent from economic, social, and health care environement

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