1. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 1 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey

2. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 2 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey

3. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 3 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Technology Policy, Innovation System and Technology Foresight

4. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 4 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Technology is a critical factor for Productivity Productivity Competitivenes Competitivenes Sustainable development Sustainable development

5. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 5 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Availability of Technology Traditional technologies (assessment) Traditional technologies (assessment) Emerging technologies (monitoring) Emerging technologies (monitoring) Future technologies (foresight) Future technologies (foresight)

6. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 6 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Economic Growth and Technology Policy Drivers of economic growth over coming decades:  increasing competition  increasing constraints on public expenditures  increasing complexity  Increasing technological competencies

7. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 7 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Challenges for strategic decision-making and policy  Economy & society becoming more knowledge-intensive  New generic technologies – likely revolutionary impact on economy and society – dependent on advances in basic research  Growing strategic importance of sc & technology  Explicit longer-term policy for S&T essential in era of growing international competition Source: Ben Martin

8. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 8 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Role and Impact of Technology Worldwide economic growth offers new opportunities for selling products and services in countries previously inaccessible. To compete effectively in foreign markets, local manufacturing is important and the potential markets for local industry will increase. Technological advances and innovation will provide new market opportunities, reduce product development time and help industry meet customers’ rising expectations. R&D, new technologies and innovations are the greatest drivers of productivity increases. Success in capturing new, emerging markets will depend on the industry’s ability to compete in different environments. To meet expanding customer expectations, the industry needs to apply innovative technology throughout all phases of R&D, production and distribution.

9. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 9 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Needs for Research-Industry Partnerships Innovation and learning strategies are formulated, implemented and monitored through consultations and partnerships at national and local level between the government, the industries and the R&D institutions, technology and innovation centres and learning support system

10. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 10 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Factors Driving Development of Foresight Changing world context since 1990 –Increasing competition, globalisation, emphasis on innovation + knowledge-based industry  Technology & science becoming competitive resources –Increased pressures on public expenditure  Need to link science & technology to economic & social needs –Changing nature of knowledge production  Need for communication, networks, partnerships and collaboration –Technology foresight = a tool for creating a new relationship between S&T and society

11. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 11 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Factors Driving Development of Foresight Enhancing and connecting the national innovation system –Concept of ‘national innovation system’ – emphasis on links –Many important innovations characterised by technology confluence and fusion –Requires multi-disciplinary/institutional/sectoral effort – i.e. networks, partnerships –Need for systemic policies + mechanisms to strengthen NSI so that it becomes more effective at learning and innovating –(Cf. Organisational learning – need to stimulate & strengthen inter’ns) –Technology Foresight  more effective knowledge distribution enhanced learning greater capacity for innovating –Foresight = a tool for ‘connecting’ the national (or regional) innovation system Source: Ben Martin

12. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 12 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey ENTERPRISE INNOVATIONS GOVERNMENT POLICY S & T INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK INNOVATION TRIANGLE* * Also Known as Sabatos Triangle UNIVERSITY-INDUSTRY LINKAGE KNOWLEDGE BASED STARTUP VENTURE CAPITAL INNOVATION PROCESS TECHNOLOGY POLICY REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT S&T PRIORITIZATION STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER R&D COMMERCIALIZATION S&T/INDUSTRY LINKAGE TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION INNOVATION STRATEGY

13. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 13 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Connecting the National Innovation System

14. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 14 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Policy framework and the flow of actions  1.Identification of needs and priorities (political views and preferences)  2.Requesting policies to be formulated (meetings)  3.Formulation of policies (meetings, draft policy documents)  4.Reports on policy outcomes (final policy documents)  5.Extraction of advises (meetings)  6.Suggesting advices to decision makers (list of advises)  7.Evaluation of advises (meetings)  8.Decision on implementation (meetings, list of policies to be implemented)  9.Formulation of implementation (detailed implementation documents)  10.Development of implementation strategies (strategy and action documents)  11.Decisions on structures required (planning documents)  12.Establishment of organisational structures (coordination documents)  13.Production of dissemination materials (printed and visual media etc.)  14.Announcement of policies to wider stakeholders and society (via printed and visual media etc.)  15.Informing stakeholders on policies (meetings, seminars, workshops)  16.Informing stakeholders on policy implementation (meetings, seminars, workshops)  17. Application of policies (actions)  18. Monitoring of applications (meetings, data analysis)  19. Evaluation of the applications (draft evaluation documents)  20.Presentation of evaluation results (final evaluation documents)  21. Analyses of evaluation documents (meetings)  22. Advise on the policies implemented (advisory documents)  23. Revision of policies (meetings)

15. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 15 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Weaknessof conventional technology policy making Weakness of conventional technology policy making  simple extrapolative prediction  narrow pool of expertise  passive outcomes: “white papers” or S&T plans  limited ownership from the wider stakeholders and public  decisions mostly normative/ coercive  disruptive and innovative solutions are difficult to predict

16. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 16 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Thinking about the Future Who Would Have Imagined in the Late 1980s … the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism? a fourfold increase in the Dow Jones? a decade-long recession in Japan? the rise of the Internet? The future is impossible to predict Assumptions about the future are inevitable There is no alternative to thinking about future alternatives

17. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 17 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Thinking about the Future Absorbed by the technology itself, the impacts of technology on societal change are often ignored Lesson learned: Don‘t be preoccupied too much with technology push, take a balanced look also at societal contexts and market pull Source: DaimlerCrysler

18. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 18 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Technical Feasibility is often equated with market demand Lesson learned: In a world populated by a clutter of nice technical gadgets, customers may become very selective and reserved about „disruptive technologies“ Thinking about the Future Source: DaimlerCrysler

19. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 19 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Strategic Marketing and Trend Research Technology Foresight (e.g. Delphi-Studies, Technology Monitoring) Product Impact Assessment Technology Assessment (e.g.Offices for technology assessment) Scenarios of Future Societies (e.g. Political think tanks) Global Trends (e.g. World Bank, Worldwatch Institute) Strategic Technology Monitoring Long term perspective (Conventional market research Strategic Market Research Technology Monitoring Prospective Economic Analyses Competition Analysis Short/medium term perspective Focus on Markets and Business Environments (economic, political, societal, ecological) = non-technological driving forces Focus on Technologies Today + 10 years+ 15 years+ 5 years Innovation and Technology Analysis Landscape of Foresight Activities

20. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 20 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Foresight- Definition Foresight - Definition J.F. Coates, 1985: Foresight is “…a process by which one comes to a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long-term future which should be taken into account in policy formulation, planning and decision-making. Foresight is, therefore, closely tied to planning. It is not planning – merely a step in planning.” Foresight is “…a process by which one comes to a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long-term future which should be taken into account in policy formulation, planning and decision-making. Foresight is, therefore, closely tied to planning. It is not planning – merely a step in planning.”

21. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 21 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Foresight - Definition Ben Martin, 1995:  Foresight is a “… process involved systematically attempting to look into the longer- term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits.”

22. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 22 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Foresight - Definition Georghiou, 1996:  Technology Foresight is a “… a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life.”

23. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 23 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Foresight – Why? Why is it important to know about future technologies?  Know about future needs of society and economy. Knowing that, one can position a nation in a lead market (“anticipatory intelligence”).  Competitiveness of a nation is related to a high standard of R&D and thus, a high standard in future technologies. Future technologies are often more knowledge-based. These are markets in which a nation prosper in the global economy.

24. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 24 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Foresight – Why? Funding agencies have to be able to set priorities (ideally based on consensus) due to fund constraints. Funding agencies have to be able to set priorities (ideally based on consensus) due to fund constraints. Future technologies will require modified structures in R&D. The state has to shape these in time (“Interdisciplinarity!”). Future technologies will require modified structures in R&D. The state has to shape these in time (“Interdisciplinarity!”). Governmental funding has to be transparent and accountable to the public. At the same time, “public understanding of science” is promoted. Governmental funding has to be transparent and accountable to the public. At the same time, “public understanding of science” is promoted.

25. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 25 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey What for Technology Foresight?  Improve decision making  Guide technology choices  Generate alternative trajectories for future development  Enhance learning and improve preparedness for emergencies  Motivate change

26. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 26 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey The context of the Foresight process Innovation system

27. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 27 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Foresight framework and the flow of actions  1.Promotion of Foresight (written, oral and visual presentations)  2. Identification of interested parties  3. Drafting the first outline of the project (objectives and focus)  4. Search for sponsors  5. Involvement of stakeholders[1] (meetings)[1]  6. Identification of sponsors  7. Selection of experts among stakeholders (Nomination)  8. Championing the Foresight process  9. Consultations with stakeholders (to provide future ownership of the process and products)  10.Involvement of stakeholders in SC  11.Approval of the objectives and focus of TF programme  12.Approval of the work programme and validation of strategy and tools for communication and promotion of the results  13.Definition/adjustment of the assessment criteria and reviewing the deliverables  14.Monitoring the quality assurance process for the whole project  15.Raising awareness  16.Mobilising experts  17.Nominating experts to panels  18.Involvement of experts in panels  19.Management of the project on a daily basis  20.Maintaining records of costs, resources and timescales for the project  21. Following the technical objectives of the project  22.Keeping contact with stakeholders to retain the project direction  23. Keeping contact with SC to retain the project direction  24.Meeting WP managers  25.Integration of management reports and their presentation to the SC  26.Ensuring the relevance of the project with other regional innovation activities  27.Gathering relevant information and knowledge,  28.Mentoring/coaching the SC, providing ideas and external views, highlighting best practices, contributing to the SC meetings  29.Mentoring/coaching the project manager, providing ideas and external views, highlighting best practices  30.Undertaking specific activities such as refining the work programme, giving advices on research methodologies  31.Participation in consensus building activities  [ [

28. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 28 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Inclusion of Foresight in policy-making process

29. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 29 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Dynamic policy-making with Foresight

30. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 30 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Actors in the dynamic policy making with Foresight

31. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 31 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Turkish Science andTechnologypolicy making with Foresight Turkish Science and Technology policy making with Foresight

32. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 32 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey Role of participants on the policy definition with foresight Policy Function Tasks Actors Resources PeopleTimeFunds Decision Advice Promotion Coordination Representation Funding Steering Management Expertise Participation Consultation Dissemination Implementation Coordination Application Evaluation

33. 2006 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 1: Technology Foresight for Organizers 33 UNIDOTUSSIDE, Turkey UNIDO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROGRAMME www.unido.org/foresight Dr.-Ing. Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY PROMOTION BRANCH