1. The theory of Green Accounting Rui Mota rmota@ist.utl.pt Tel. 21 841 9442. Ext. 3442 rmota@ist.utl.pt Tiago Domingos May 2009

2. What is Sustainable Development? Brundtland report (1987) – “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own need.” –Intra- and inter-generational equity –Anthropocentric Sustainability of what? –non-declining aggregate output or consumption, –non-declining utility, –non-declining aggregate resources (productive base), –non-increasing pollution, … Weak vs. Strong Sustainability We choose non-declining utility as the criterion for sustainable development –some call this Weak Sustainability, but we don’t agree –this still misses the intra-generational component What is green net national income (GNNI) and what does it measure? What is genuine saving and what does it measure?

3. Welfare in the Ramsey Model Assumptions: –Discounted utilitarianism –Closed economy with no government –No technological progress –No population growth –Competitive economy What is the SNA’s conventional net product (or income) measuring? – NNI = consumption + investment in capital stocks, i.e.,. –Supply of goods, Y, equals demand of goods, C + I. Or resources equal uses. s.t.

4. Welfare in the Ramsey Model Current-value Hamiltonian First Order Conditions Euler Equation s.t.

5. National Product and Welfare, Weitzman (1976) QJE Define Welfare at time t: Noting that the HJB equation rewrites as Useful Expressions: - Leibniz Integral Rule: - - Integration by parts: Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation

6. National Product and Welfare, Weitzman (1976) QJE The Hamiltonian is the stationary equivalent of the optimal path of utility Consider that, hence, the Hamiltonian is exactly the conventional net product measured in a closed economy with consumption as numeraire, i.e.,, where net investment. Welfare significance of net product or income: –The maximum welfare attainable is what would be obtained if one could consume all the net product in each period. From the HJB equation changes in net product measure changes in welfare.

7. Genuine Saving in the Ramsey Model What is the welfare significance of net saving/investment? Net saving/investment – Value of the portion of net product not used in consumption, i.e.,. From the definition of welfare and using the HJB equation Moreover, from the HJB equation and the above expression, With consumption as numeraire, Net investment indicates changes in welfare (Negative net investment indicates decreasing welfare). –Measuring negative net saving at a point in time implies that future utility will be less than current utility over some period of time (Hamilton, 2000 WB).

8. Nominal and Real Economy, Asheim and Weitzman (2001) EL Problems: –Utility is not observable. –Hamiltonian is in Utils as numeraire. The national accountant has to convert observable market prices in money units to utils. Define nominal net product, with nominal prices being where is the marginal utility of money. Do changes in nominal net product indicate welfare changes? Positive nominal net product does not measure welfare improvements. Net product should be measured in constant consumption prices. Only consumption goods should be used as quantity weights in the price index. Nominal interest rate

9. Nominal and Real Economy Define real net product, with real prices being where is the price index that deflates nominal into real prices. Do changes in real net product indicate welfare changes? This is the definition of a Divisia price index. Hence, Growth in real net product means that welfare is increasing, if. Net saving measures the instantaneous change in welfare. Both nominal and real net saving have the same welfare significance. Change in Net Product is equal to interest on Net Saving. Check theory Real interest rate

10. Chained CPI, Asheim (2007) EDE Real and nominal prices A Divisia price index can be approximated in discrete time by a chain index, which is re-based every year. This implies that The usual CPI has a fixed base year, e.g., year 0. Chained CPI may be approximated by Which implies that The usual way to deflate is a good proxy

11. Multisector Optimal Growth m-dimensional consumption bundle, including everything that influences well-being. –Includes all non-market commodities, e.g, produced at home, environmental services, … n-dimensional capital vector (variables in bold are vectors): –Includes man-made capital, natural resources, human capital (education and knowledge) and foreign capital. Time is included as a capital, to depict technological progress in production. Attainable production possibilities The model s.t.

12. Criteria for Sustainability, Pezzey (2004) EDE An economy is sustainable at time t if and only if the representative agent’s current utility does not exceed the maximum level of utility which can be sustained forever from t onwards. This is implied by sustainability as forever non-declining utility. One-sided sustainability test: un-sustainable development. Multisector results in real terms. –Real Net Product, –Genuine Saving, –

13. Small Open Economy Include –stocks of commercial forests, –stocks of minerals, –welfare costs of air emissions, –value of technological progress. The capital stocks are : –Domestic man-made capital, –Net foreign capital held privately or by the government, –Stock of commercial natural resources Production Time as a capital in the production function represents technological progress

14. Small Open Economy Households’ utility function depends on material consumption rate and (negatively) on the flow of emissions The vector of emissions depends on production and abatement expenditure. Maximize welfare subject to the above relations, and having as controls, consumption,, all forms of extraction,, abatement expenditure and. Conventional (SNA) NNI: Green Net National Income: Genuine Saving (Adjusted Net Saving): The value of time

15. Small Open Economy – Human Capital The model of the small open economy can be extended to include human capital as a form of capital,, i.e. assuming. Following the world bank model, human capital changes according to In our expressions for GNNI and GS, –The GNNI is not altered because education expenditures are already included in the conventional NNI, as government spending. In the above model, this expenditures are considered an investment and not a form of consumption. This implies a reallocation of education expenditures that does not alter the value of NNI. –In GS just add the value of education expenditures since they are a form of investment. Education expenditures m are transformed in human capital by q(.)

16. Small Open Economy – Table of symbols Consumption rate at time t Utility Rate of emissions of air pollutants Production function Abatement expenditure Extraction of natural resources for domestic use, exports and from imports. Imports - Exports Constant nominal interest rate Stock of resources Man-made capital, Resource price Constant real interest rate Cost of extraction of resource Marginal cost of abatement = Marginal damage cost Marginal cost of abatement Net foreign capital For more information check

17. Small Open Economy Starting from conventional SNA aggregates: –Deduct the damage from flow pollution emissions, –Deduct (add) the value of rents from resource depletion (or not), –Add the value of technological progress.

18. GNNI and GS in Portugal – Air Emissions How to value a unit of emissions? –Marginal benefit of avoided emission, –Marginal cost of emission (MDC), or –Marginal abatement costs? Marginal cost of emission per emitted pollutant [€2000/ton]: [ € 2000/t] Best Low High SO 2 6872 34729972 NH 3 7399 369910999 NO x 2040 11403040 VOC 1150 4501550 PM2,5 44000 2200064000

19. GNNI and GS in Portugal – Air Emissions

20. GNNI and GS in Portugal – Forests National Forest Inventory 2005/06 Average Volumes: Coniferous Eucalyptus 95/9805/06 [m 3 /ha] 88.5 55 82.5

21. GNNI and GS in Portugal – Forests The depreciation of commercial forests in Portugal is on average 10% of the contribution of forestry to national product (around 4%).

22. GNNI and GS in Portugal – Technological progress The integral may be approximated by,

23. GS in Portugal Without the value of time – Decreasing tendency throughout the period and negative GS after 2002. With the value of time – Decreasing tendency until 2001, but GS are always positive.