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- 0 - School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations December 12, 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "- 0 - School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations December 12, 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 - 0 - School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations December 12, 2007

2 - 1 - I.Coherent Governance Policy OE 12.5 II.Hillcrest III. Middle School Boundaries Appendix: Hillcrest Analysis School Portfolio Management

3 - 2 - School Portfolio Management Framework Coherent Governance Policy (Operational Expectation OE-12) The Chief Executive Officer shall assure the availability of a diverse portfolio of high quality schools (traditional, new small schools, charter schools, etc) for students and families both within neighborhoods and district-wide The Chief Executive Officer shall: 1. Assure that all district quality standards apply equally to all schools regardless of size and type 2. Regularly monitor all schools to assure their cost-effectiveness and compliance with quality standards 3. Assure the sustainability of all schools and programs, especially in a declining revenue environment 4. Create meaningful partnerships between district and charter schools that improve the conditions for both and that enhance choices for students and their families 5. Review school attendance boundaries annually to assure reasonable balance in student enrollment As per Board policy, this presentation specifically makes recommendations regarding Operational Expectation 12.5 The adjustments presented herein are a recommendation to right size boundaries which will ensure families have access to neighborhood schools.

4 - 3 - Hillcrest: Solution for Overcrowding Recommendation 1.Shrink attendance boundary to ensure that the number of neighborhood students more closely approximates the number of seats at Hillcrest 2.Cap kindergarten class at 40 students beginning in 2008 (NOTE: this does not necessarily mean classes of 20:1) 3.Cap 6 th grade class at 20 students beginning in 2009 (IF there is not sufficient attrition to ensure that students current progressing through the school can fit. This will be reviewed annually) Rationale* The number of students living in the current Hillcrest attendance area is increasing: Long-term enrollment trends and current neighborhood birth rates suggest there will be neighborhood kindergartners living in the current attendance boundary for each of the next 5 years The current facility can hold no more than 310 students. There is neither space nor funding to create additional capacity on site. Eliminating the middle school was an option considered. However, doing so would still require a reduction in neighborhood demand for the school, as this alternative would result in an estimated school size of students Shrinking the boundary to reduce the number of neighborhood students, while also reducing the number of middle school students overtime is the most equitable solution to overcrowding Siblings of current Hillcrest students living in the portions of the former attendance boundary now re-districted to Chabot and Montclair will be grandfathered for one year by receiving priority over other non-sibling neighborhood families (as long as there is space) * More detailed analysis can be found in Appendix

5 - 4 - Hillcrest: Recommended Boundary Adjustment Portion re-districted to CHABOT recommended to be drawn along: Broadway Terrace Estimated number of Kindergarten students impacted: 5-15 Portion re-districted to MONTCLAIR recommended to be drawn along: Hilltop, Harbord, Sheridan Estimated number of Kindergarten students impacted: 5- 15

6 - 5 - Adjustment of Middle School Boundaries Recommendation Right size attendance boundaries across the district as shown on the next page. These adjustments will result in the following estimated changes to residents within each boundary: Boundaries Gaining Residents Claremont (+187) Simmons (+161) Edna Brewer (+81) Madison (+160) Montera (+105) Boundaries Losing Residents Elmhurst (-160) Bret Harte (-113) Havenscourt (-154) Roosevelt (-86) Westlake (-187) Rationale We believe that families should have access to neighborhood schools, as articulated in Board Policy Currently, many of the middle school attendance boundaries do not represent a number of residents equivalent to the school facilities capacities within their neighborhood. For example, Elmhurst and Havenscourt each have many more families living in their neighborhoods than there are seats at neighborhood schools. In contrast, Claremont and Calvin Simmons currently have many less students living in their neighborhood than there are seats at neighborhood schools In making these boundary adjustments, it is important to note that OUSDs current options policy allows students to select any school across the city. With only an estimated 60% of students attending school within their neighborhood, we know that these attendance boundaries do not reflect the actual students attending each school. However it is important that we maintain a system within which families have the OPTION to attend their neighborhood school should they so desire

7 - 6 - Adjustment of Middle School Boundaries [Insert picture of boundary changes with exact streets] The map below represents the recommended new middle school attendance boundaries (for example, the recommended new North Oakland boundary is BLUE) Regions with annotated streets represent the areas which are proposed to be moved

8 - 7 - Summary of Recommendations and Next Steps RecommendationSchoolsNext Steps (IF recommendation is approved by the Board of Education) Attendance Boundary Adjustment (2) Hillcrest Middle School Boundaries Coordination with student assignment office to ensure students are assigned through the options process using new attendance boundaries Communication with families in impacted regions to support smooth transition

9 - 8 - Board of Education: Next Steps DateTopic December 19 th Board of Education decision regarding attendance boundary adjustments

10 - 9 - Appendix: Hillcrest Analysis

11 Defining and Measuring Grade Progressions A grade progression measures the change in the number of students from one year to the next This years Kindergartners become next years first graders and the following years second graders and so on. EXAMPLE: In 2004, 38 Hillcrest Kindergartners were enrolled. In 2005, 32 1st graders were enrolled. The K to 1 st (K>1) grade progression between 2004 and 2005 was 84.2% 15.8% of the students left between K and 1 st grade from 2004 to 2005 ` 2004: : 32

12 Factors Considered in for the Scenario Models The standard Grade Progression Model (also referred to as Attrition Rate Model) is used to forecast future Hillcrest enrollment Several Grade Progressions (GPs) were considered Using GPs from a particular year Average GPs from the last 2 years Average GPs from the last 3 years Average GPs from the last 5 years Maximum GPs of the last 2, 3, 5 years ** Both OUSD and LRPCs analysis indicate that grade progressions in recent years are significantly higher than in the past **

13 LRPC Scenario 1 (Table S-4 in report) Scenario 1 presented by the LRPC assumes 40 future incoming K students with no change to the middle school. This scenario forecasts a slight increase of students until the year 2011, before reaching a steady state of the optimal 310 students Challenges to Scenario: As the LRPC has noted, attrition rates have declined significantly in recent years. The attrition rates used in this model are lower than attrition rates that were actually experienced between 2006 and 2007 Most notably, the LRPC is utilizing an average grade progression of 80.2% between 5 th and 6 th grade whereas the actual grade progression between 2006 and 2007 was 93.1%

14 Scenario 2 presented by the LRPC assumes 40 future incoming K students with no change to the middle school. This model forecasts a continued increase in enrollment over the next 6 years The attrition rates used in this model are more realistic and more accurately reflect current attrition rates Challenges to Scenario: Hillcrest school does not have the facilities capacity to house this number of students LRPC Scenario 2 (Table S-5 in report)

15 How Grade Progressions were Determined Medium Scenario uses grade progressions we feel most accurately reflects what is currently happening at the school Average of the 2 highest grade progressions of the last 3 years From 5 th to 6 th grade, the higher grade progression from the 06>07 school year was used to account for a shift in the attrition rate from historical patterns High Scenario Maximum grade progressions from the last three years for each grade

16 Scenarios Considered OUSD SCENARIO 1: Eliminate middle school (This scenario was not proposed by the LRPC. However as a district, we felt that it was very important to consider this alternative given that it was recommended by a number of pre-Kindergarten Hillcrest families) Advantages : Allows a greater number of Kindergartens in incoming classes Challenges: Strong likelihood based on survey results that there will be at least 60 Kindergarten families within the current Hillcrest boundary Hillcrest facilities cannot sustain future incoming classes of 60 Kindergarteners Medium Scenario with GPs as discussed on Slide #5High Scenario with Maximum GPs of the last 3 years 345 projected students is significantly greater than Hillcrests facility capacity

17 Scenarios Considered OUSD SCENARIO 2: Cap at 40 Kindergarteners with no change to middle school Advantages: Programmatically, the scenario would preserve the communitys commitment to preserving a K-8 option for families Challenges: Based on even a relatively conservative prediction of future grade progressions, this solution does not fully solve the challenges of overcrowding With the uncertainty of future grade progressions, its very possible that this solution would not at all solve the situation Medium Scenario with GPs as discussed on Slide #5High Scenario with Maximum GPs of the last 3 years 355 projected students is significantly greater than Hillcrests facility capacity

18 Scenarios Considered OUSD SCENARIO 3: Reduce cohort of neighborhood students by shrinking boundary Cap Kindergarten at 40 Annually review attrition rates and cap Middle School at 20 if current grade progressions continue* Challenges: Enrollment will still be over the facilities capacity of 310 for the next three years Advantages: As requested by the LRPC, model utilizes a more realistic attrition rate for projecting student population. Reduces some overcrowding while preserving the communitys commitment to a K-8 option Medium Scenario with GPs as discussed on Slide #5High Scenario with Maximum GPs of the last 3 years * Beginning in 2009, all 5 th grade Hillcrest students must fill out an Options form. Middle school seats will be drawn through a lottery process

19 Recommendation 1. Shrink attendance boundary to reduce number of students living in boundary Approximately 5-15 kindergarteners will be redistricted to Chabot * Approximately 5-15 kindergarteners will be redistricted to Montclair * **NOTE: These numbers are only estimates. Until OUSD has access to ALL specific resident information about incoming students gathered by the LRPC, we cannot make any assurances that these adjustments will fully reduce over demand for the 2008 kindergarten seats ** 2. Cap Kindergarten at 40 students beginning in 2008 This does NOT necessarily mean 2 classes of 20 K 3. Annually review attrition rates and cap Middle School at 20 if current grade progressions continue* 4. Adhere to published OUSD enrollment priorities and administrative regulations * These figures may range according to new data presented

20 OUSD Enrollment Priorities Enrollment Priorities Neighborhood students Sibling Non-neighborhood Program Improvement neighborhood Open Lottery Enrollment Dates December 7 th, 8 th : Options Fair 1/15/08: Options forms due 3/1/08: Placement letters mailed 3/2/08-Ongoing: Appeals window

21 OUSD Enrollment Priorities Priority OrderCurrent Hillcrest Students Live in New Hillcrest Boundary Live in Re-districted portion Never Lived at Hillcrest SiblingNon- Sibling 1 ** Students are GUARANTEED their space at Hillcrest ** X 2XX 3 ** Grandfathered for only** XX 4XX 5XX 6XXX OR

22 OUSD Enrollment Priorities 1)Current Hillcrest Student Population ** Students are GUARANTEED their space at Hillcrest. They do not participate in the options process ** 2)Students living in the New Hillcrest Boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest 3)For the school year only, grandfathered students who live in the previously defined Hillcrest boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest 4)Students living in the New Hillcrest Boundary without a sibling attending Hillcrest 5)Students who do not live in the Hillcrest boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest 6)Students who do not live in the Hillcrest boundary without a sibling already attending Hillcrest

23 Questions Asked by the LRPC What is the current OUSD policy concerning what happens to current Hillcrest students whose addresses are reallocated to alternative attendance areas? These students can continue at Hillcrest. If these students wish to select a new school, they will receive first priority at their new neighborhood school Is there a current OUSD policy concerning what happens to the siblings of existing Hillcrest students? Pursuant to AR (Administrative Regulation) 5116, when boundaries are changed, the Superintendent or designee will make every effort to keep siblings together, therefore grandfathering the neighborhood sibling priority based on space availability If younger siblings of existing Hillcrest students are grandfathered into the school despite their home addresses falling into a new alternative attendance area, does current or proposed policy dictate that they be given the same (or less) priority that new prospective Hillcrest students residing in the attendance area (who do not have siblings already at the school) when it comes to allocating kindergarten slots? Pursuant to AR 5116, during the school year, students who reside in the re-districted portion with a sibling already attending Hillcrest will have priority over students who live in the Hillcrest neighborhood without siblings. Pursuant to AR 5116, after , students living in the Hillcrest neighborhood without siblings will be prioritized before students who reside in the re-districted portion with a sibling already attending Hillcrest.

24 How will the middle school lottery occur for 2009? – If the natural attrition rate is less than the number of middle school seats available, a lottery process will take place at the district according to the 2009 Board Options policies. Options policies will be reviewed annually and could be altered as a result of the review What happens if there is an extra seat in 7th grade as a result of 6th grade students not moving forward? – Because of ongoing challenges with overcrowding, this space will not be refilled. How will this information be communicated to Real Estate Agents? -The options policy will be distributed and made available to the Oakland Realtors Association and broadcast in the Real Estate Associations newsletter -A meeting will be set up after the Options policies are distributed Questions Asked by the LRPC

25 Hillcrest: Impact on Neighboring Schools

26 Chabot: Number of Residents In order to determine whether the number of neighborhood students are increasing, we examine the number of district residents A resident is defined as an OUSD student whose address falls within the Chabot boundary, regardless of where they attend school For example, if a student lives in the Chabot neighborhood but attends school at Peralta, they are counted as a Chabot resident The number of residents in the Chabot neighborhood increased most significantly between 2005 and 2006 Though the number of residents increased slightly in the Chabot neighborhood, enrollment at the school decreased slightly 2006 Enrollment: Enrollment: 485

27 Chabot: Neighborhood/Non-Neighborhood Students Chabot School has always had an excess number of seats available to non-neighborhood students 55% of students at Chabot come from outside the neighborhood

28 Chabot: Possible impact on incoming Kindergarten class In 2007, 36% of the Kindergarten class came from outside the neighborhood With approximately 13 new Hillcrest K students, 16% of the seats will be available for non- neighborhood students

29 Neighborhood going outside for school: 14 Students Neighborhood students attending School: 217 Students Number of OUSD elementary school students living in the Chabot Neighborhood: 231 Students from other neighborhoods: 268 Students Chabot : Where Students Live and Go to School 94% of students who live in the neighborhood attend school in the neighborhood Number of non SDC students attending Chabot: 485

30 Chabot: Projected Enrollment Chabots facilities are currently being used at capacity. Chabot is projected to be able to accommodate the increased number of residents, with fewer available seats for non-neighborhood students. In 2007, 45% of Chabots students come from within the neighborhood. Over the next five years, enrollment is projected to shift to a mix of 67% neighborhood, because of: –Higher grade progressions for neighborhood students –Smaller incoming non-neighborhood K class and fewer non-neighborhood students progressing through the grades

31 Montclair: Number of Residents In order to determine whether the number of neighborhood students are increasing, we examine the number of district residents A resident is defined as an OUSD student whose address falls within the Montclair boundary, regardless of where they attend school For example, if a student lives in the Montclair neighborhood but attends school at Joaquin Miller, they are counted as a Montclair resident The number of residents in the Montclair neighborhood have increased in the last two years In 2007, the number of Montclair residents increased, but the enrollment at the school remained relatively constant, leaving fewer seats for non-neighborhood students 2006 Enrollment: Enrollment: 350 Montclair K-5 Residents

32 Montclair: Neighborhood/Non-Neighborhood Students In the last few years, Montclair School has had an excess number of seats available to non- neighborhood students In 2007, the number of non-neighborhood students increased, leaving fewer seats for non- neighborhood students

33 Neighborhood going outside for school: 39 Students Neighborhood students attending School: 229 Students Number of OUSD elementary school students living in the Montclair Neighborhood: 268 Students from other neighborhoods: 121 Students Montclair : Where Students Live and Go to School 85% of students who live in the neighborhood attend school in the neighborhood Number of non SDC students attending Montclair: 350

34 Montclair: Number of Residents vs. Facilities Capacity Montclairs facility can hold approximately 350 students Based on the current Montclair attendance boundary, even if every neighborhood student chose to attend the school, there would be approximately 50 additional seats available for non-neighborhood students Currently, only 85% of neighborhood families are choosing to attend the school. This suggests that there would be more than these 50 seats available for non-neighborhood students

35 Montclair: Possible impact on incoming Kindergarten class In 2007, approximately 18% of the Kindergarten class came from outside the neighborhood With approximately 7 new Hillcrest K students, 10% of the seats will be available for non- neighborhood students * * The school could take 60 kindergartners next year, an increase of three students over this years current class

36 Montclair: Projected Enrollment Montclairs facilities are currently being used at capacity. Montclair is projected to be able to accommodate the increased number of residents, with fewer available seats for non-neighborhood students. In 2007, 65% of Montclairs students come from outside the neighborhood. Over the next five years, enrollment is projected to shift to a mix of 87% neighborhood, 13% non-neighborhood because of: –Higher grade progressions for neighborhood students –Smaller incoming non-neighborhood K class and fewer non-neighborhood students progressing through the grades


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