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A Tour of Climate- Protection Technology Decision Space Energy and Climate Mini-Workshop November 3, 2008 Michael Hoexter, Ph.D. Terraverde Solutions.

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Presentation on theme: "A Tour of Climate- Protection Technology Decision Space Energy and Climate Mini-Workshop November 3, 2008 Michael Hoexter, Ph.D. Terraverde Solutions."— Presentation transcript:

1 A Tour of Climate- Protection Technology Decision Space Energy and Climate Mini-Workshop November 3, 2008 Michael Hoexter, Ph.D. Terraverde Solutions

2 Why Discuss the Decision Space? Provide Decision makers with an intelligent framework for evaluating technologies Provide Decision makers with an intelligent framework for evaluating technologies Create basis for comparison between technologies Create basis for comparison between technologies Create links between relevant data and decision process itself Create links between relevant data and decision process itself

3 Why a Space? A visual metaphor A visual metaphor Potentially graphable Potentially graphable Potential for describing 3 or more dimensions mapped onto a very complex multivariate domain. Potential for describing 3 or more dimensions mapped onto a very complex multivariate domain.

4 Purpose of Decision Space Harness most deliberative, highest forms of rational thought and discourse in service of protecting the climate. Harness most deliberative, highest forms of rational thought and discourse in service of protecting the climate.

5 Decision Space as Prevention With an organized decision space framework, we might be swayed by personal biases or emotional appeals that in the end will not protect the climate. With an organized decision space framework, we might be swayed by personal biases or emotional appeals that in the end will not protect the climate.

6 Gut level decision making I liked that guy, lets do business with him. I liked that guy, lets do business with him. I like big projects. I like big projects. I like the sun…its about the future I like the sun…its about the future Energy has to have some downside, has to be a little dirty. Energy has to have some downside, has to be a little dirty.

7 The Goal Better, more intelligent decision making for Energy and Climate Better, more intelligent decision making for Energy and Climate

8 Simplified Decision Space In Ethical Terms there are two broad areas for decision makers: In Ethical Terms there are two broad areas for decision makers: Global and Long-term Variables (GHG emissions and climate)Global and Long-term Variables (GHG emissions and climate) Personal, local, and organizational variables (What do I, my company, my constituents gain/lose?)Personal, local, and organizational variables (What do I, my company, my constituents gain/lose?)

9 Two types of Parameters – Simplified View Local, organizational and personal parameters Local, organizational and personal parameters Global, and long-term parameters related to the effect of GHG emissions on climate stability. Global, and long-term parameters related to the effect of GHG emissions on climate stability.

10 Simplified View as Ethical Dilemma In the simplified view, immediate concerns are contrasted with longer- term concerns for the well-being of the planet In the simplified view, immediate concerns are contrasted with longer- term concerns for the well-being of the planet The latter concerns are usually given higher weight in our inherited ethical systems The latter concerns are usually given higher weight in our inherited ethical systems

11 Expanding Decision Space The simplified view of the problem is important but real decision makers need to confront a problem of high complexity The simplified view of the problem is important but real decision makers need to confront a problem of high complexity More parameters other than short- term/long-term need to be studied and brought to bear on wise technology choices. More parameters other than short- term/long-term need to be studied and brought to bear on wise technology choices.

12 A More Detailed Decision Space What follows is a review of Prerequisites and Parameters that would make up a more useful decision space What follows is a review of Prerequisites and Parameters that would make up a more useful decision space

13 (Proposed) Prerequisites Does this technology or system cut emissions by 90% over the replaced technology or system? Does this technology or system cut emissions by 90% over the replaced technology or system? Can it be implemented within 10 years? Can it be implemented within 10 years?

14 Classes of Parameters Financial Parameters Financial Parameters Efficacy as Climate Protection Efficacy as Climate Protection Efficacy as an Energy Source Efficacy as an Energy Source Continuity with Existing Social Institutions Continuity with Existing Social Institutions Systemic Risks and Dependencies Systemic Risks and Dependencies

15 Assigning Values to Parameters Positive or negative (some unanimous, some subjectively determined) Positive or negative (some unanimous, some subjectively determined) Max. assigned value (pre- programmed or left open to decision makers) Max. assigned value (pre- programmed or left open to decision makers) Assigned value (assigned by decision makers we hope with the best guidance available) Assigned value (assigned by decision makers we hope with the best guidance available)

16 Financial Parameters (I) Current cost of deployment (per unit useful product and per unit GHG avoided) Current cost of deployment (per unit useful product and per unit GHG avoided) Projected Future cost of deployment (5, 10, 15 year horizons) Projected Future cost of deployment (5, 10, 15 year horizons) Potential for Profit (margin between true cost and perceived market value or prescribed selling price) Potential for Profit (margin between true cost and perceived market value or prescribed selling price)

17 Financial Parameters (II) Potential for Workforce Development and Employment (Green Jobs) Potential for Workforce Development and Employment (Green Jobs) Percentage Discount from Expectable Carbon Price Percentage Discount from Expectable Carbon Price Utilization of sunk costs and existing infrastructure Utilization of sunk costs and existing infrastructure

18 Financial Parameters (III) Losses from abandoning GHG- emitting assets Losses from abandoning GHG- emitting assets Incentives for (partially) recovering losses from abandoning GHG- emitting assets Incentives for (partially) recovering losses from abandoning GHG- emitting assets

19 Financial Parameters (IV) Requirements for new ancillary infrastructure Requirements for new ancillary infrastructure Dependence upon government subsidy Dependence upon government subsidy Allows investment in small monetary and time increments; potential for rapidly recursive technological development Allows investment in small monetary and time increments; potential for rapidly recursive technological development

20 Efficacy as Climate Protection (I) Availability for deployment in 2009- 2011 Availability for deployment in 2009- 2011 Scalability to energy demand and GHG-emissions reduction targets Scalability to energy demand and GHG-emissions reduction targets Geographical range of application Geographical range of application

21 Efficacy as Climate Protection (II) Coal replacement value (how closely matches output of coal-fired power plants) Coal replacement value (how closely matches output of coal-fired power plants) Petroleum replacement value Petroleum replacement value Natural gas/propane replacement value Natural gas/propane replacement value

22 Efficacy as Energy Source (I) Current energy return on energy invested (ERoEI) Current energy return on energy invested (ERoEI) Projected future ERoEI (5, 10, 15 year horizons) Projected future ERoEI (5, 10, 15 year horizons) Reliability and Availability (matches our energy demand in quantity and timing) Reliability and Availability (matches our energy demand in quantity and timing)

23 Efficacy as Energy Source (II) Primary energy is a stock or flow Primary energy is a stock or flow If a flow, storage capability and cost for that type of flow. If a flow, storage capability and cost for that type of flow. Dependence on exhaustible or rare resources/ (narrow) sustainability Dependence on exhaustible or rare resources/ (narrow) sustainability

24 Social Continuity/Discontinuity (I) Convenience/Consumer acceptance of products Convenience/Consumer acceptance of products Continuity with existing Industry expertise Continuity with existing Industry expertise Continuity with existing employment structure Continuity with existing employment structure

25 Social Continuity/Discontinuity (II) Favored by established economic interests and industry players Favored by established economic interests and industry players Disruptiveness for existing industries and interest groups Disruptiveness for existing industries and interest groups Physical proximity or accessibility to a given decision-maker. Physical proximity or accessibility to a given decision-maker.

26 Systemic Risks and Dependencies (I) Non-GHG Ecological Footprint Non-GHG Ecological Footprint Land useLand use Water useWater use Non-GHG gaseous emissionsNon-GHG gaseous emissions Volume of solid/liquid waste (system)Volume of solid/liquid waste (system) Biotoxicity of waste and emissionsBiotoxicity of waste and emissions Interaction with non-human speciesInteraction with non-human species Interaction with human cultural expectations for natural systemsInteraction with human cultural expectations for natural systems Other eco-system interactionsOther eco-system interactions

27 Systemic Risks and Dependencies (II) Competition with other (non-Energy) human economic ends Competition with other (non-Energy) human economic ends Dependence on government management of operations Dependence on government management of operations

28 Systemic Risks and Dependencies (III) Potential for catastrophic failure Potential for catastrophic failure Vulnerability to changes in atmospheric and climatic conditions Vulnerability to changes in atmospheric and climatic conditions

29 Constructing a Decision Space Option 1: Add the rated parameters together to arrive at a single score Option 1: Add the rated parameters together to arrive at a single score Option 2: Create virtual 5-dimensional space or rating system by rating each class of parameters separately Option 2: Create virtual 5-dimensional space or rating system by rating each class of parameters separately Option 3: Cluster parameters into short- term and long-term or interests of current generation and interests of future generation. Observe how different technologies rate. Option 3: Cluster parameters into short- term and long-term or interests of current generation and interests of future generation. Observe how different technologies rate.

30 Potential Next Steps Would offering decision makers the outlines of a post-carbon decision space be helpful? Would offering decision makers the outlines of a post-carbon decision space be helpful? If helpful, agree on Parameter set (more or less) If helpful, agree on Parameter set (more or less) Once parameters are determined, decide whether parameter maximum values (weightings) can be pre- assigned and if yes, assign them. Once parameters are determined, decide whether parameter maximum values (weightings) can be pre- assigned and if yes, assign them.

31 Comments Please!! Thank you! Thank you! Or by Email: michael.terraverde@gmail.com Or by Email: michael.terraverde@gmail.com


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