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Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program.

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Presentation on theme: "Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program."— Presentation transcript:

1 Water Quality and Quantity, Climate Change and Public Health Water Quality & Quantity Climate Change Training Module Minnesota Climate and Health Program Minnesota Department of Health Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit October Robert Street North PO Box St. Paul, MN

2 Notice 2 MDH developed this presentation based on scientific research published in peer-reviewed journals. References for information can be found in the relevant slides and/or at the end of the presentation.

3 Learning Objectives Importance of water in Minnesota Climate changes in Minnesota Public health issues related to: 1.Increases in water 2.Decreases in water 3.Increases in water temperature 3

4 4 IMPORTANCE OF WATER IN MINNESOTA Water Sources Water Sources Water Cycle Water Cycle Water Uses Water Uses

5 Minnesota: A Land of Water Surface water: 11,842 lakes greater than 10 acres and 63,000 miles of rivers and streams (NCDC 2006, University of Minnesota Water Resources Center 2011) Groundwater: several aquifers across the state and approx- imately 400,000 drinking water wells (DNR, 2010; MDH, 2012) Source: University of Minnesota Water Resources Center

6 Minnesota: A Land of Water Has the most freshwater among the 48 lower states (University of Minnesota Water Resources Center, 2011) At the head of four continental watersheds and is the headwaters and origin of three of the watersheds (DNR, 2000) Source: DNR,

7 Water in Minnesota 99% of the water that comes into Minnesota is in the form of precipitation (University of Minnesota Water Resources Center 2011) We control the quality & quantity of water we use and discard 7

8 Three main air masses affect Minnesotas weather: 1.Cold, dry, polar continental from the north 2.Dry, tropical continental westerlies 3.Warm, moist tropical maritime from the Gulf of Mexico Major air masses converging to MN Water in Minnesota

9 Hydrologic Cycle 9 ology.html The hydrologic cycle describes the continuous movement of water: Evaporation to the atmosphere Precipitation to the land Infiltration to groundwater Discharge to surface water Changes in climate can alter the hydrologic cycle Temperature affects water vapor which affects precipitation

10 Water Use 19% water use comes from ground water and the remaining comes from surface water Total water use in MN from 1985 to

11 11 Water Use

12 Minnesota Drinking Water 78% of Minnesotans rely on public drinking water which is largely from groundwater (~70%) One million Minnesotans (22%) rely on private wells, which all use groundwater 12

13 Water is Key Minnesota is rich in water resources High quality, abundant water is essential to Minnesota economy, culture, future Understanding the basic properties of the water cycle and the atmosphere is fundamental to understanding impacts of climate change on water 13

14 CLIMATE CHANGES IN MINNESOTA Temperature Dew point Precipitation 14

15 Weather versus Climate Weather: conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time Climate: conditions of the atmosphere over long periods of time (30-year standard averaging period) 15

16 Climate Changes in Minnesota 16 There have been three recent significant observed climate trends in Minnesota: The average temperature is increasing The average number of days with a high dew point may be increasing The character of precipitation is changing

17 Temperature Changes 17 Temperature has been rising in Minnesota.

18 Temperature Changes 18 Three significant observations in this overall warming: Winter temperatures have been rising about twice as fast as annual average temperatures Minimum or 'overnight low' temperatures have been rising faster than the maximum temperature, or daytime high Since the early 1980s, the temperature has risen slightly over 1°F in southern Minnesota to a little over 2°F in much of the northern part of the state

19 Lake Superior Temperature and Ice Cover 19

20 Dew Point Changes 20 Dew point is a measure of water vapor in the air The higher the dew point, the more difficult it is for people's sweat to evaporate, which is how they cool themselves The number of days with high dew point temperatures ( 70 °F) may be increasing in Minnesota

21 Dew Point Changes 21 Source: Dr. Mark Seeley, Climatologist, University of Minnesota

22 Precipitation Changes 22 On average, the total precipitation in the state has increased since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s.

23 Precipitation Changes 23 The character of precipitation in Minnesota is changing More localized, heavy precipitation events Potential to cause both increased flooding and drought

24 Public health issues related to: Increases in water Decreases in water Increases in water temperature

25 Precipitation Changes Flooding Humidity & Dew Point Highway 169 between St. Peter and LeSueur Increases in Water

26 More wintertime precipitation falls as rain rather than snow This trend may increase risks of runoff and floods Reduced snowpack may lead to lower water levels and drought in late summer (Karl et al. 2009) 26 Precipitation Changes Changes in Snowfall Contributions to Wintertime Precipitation (1949 to 2005)

27 Precipitation Changes Greatest increase in very heavy precipitation in the past 50 years occurred in the Northeast and the Midwest (Karl et al. 2009) Total precipitation in the Midwest and Northeast is expected to increase the most with the largest increases in heavy precipitation events (Karl et al. 2009) 27 Very heavy precipitation is defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events from 1958 to 2007 for each region.

28 Public Health Issues - Precipitation 28 Extreme Precipitation Increased runoff: sediment, contaminants, nitrate, etc. Sewage overflows Contamination of surface and groundwater Waterborne disease outbreaks from drinking water or recreational contact (beachgoers): Giardiasis, E coli, Cryptosporidium Physical injuries and destruction of property

29 Flooding 29 Flooding results from a combination of Land use changes that reduce infiltration Undersized sewer/stormwater pipes Extreme precipitation and/or rapid snowmelt Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions, and volumes of low flows are likely to decrease in many regions (Field et al, 2007)

30 2012 Duluth/northeastern Minnesota 500-year flood event 30 Flooding Photo credits: Rachel Agurkis (top), Derek Montgomery for MPR (right)

31 Potential increases of: physical injuries (including drowning) allergies (mold) food and water-borne illnesses food security displacement mental health issues interruption of emergency services (WHO, 2010) 31 Public Health Issues - Flooding Oslo, MN, May 14, days after the Red River flooded

32 Public Health Issues - Flooding 32 Foodborne illnesses (e.g. Salmonellosis) Increased risk from contamination of certain food crops with feces from nearby livestock or wild animals following heavy rain and flooding (Ebi et al, 2008; CCSP, 2008) Waterborne illnesses Caused by pathogens (e.g. Cryptosporidium and Giardia) which may increase following downpours Can also be transmitted in drinking water and through recreational use (Ebi et al, 2008; CCSP, 2008)

33 Public Health Issues - Flooding M people were affected; over 400,000 w/ significant symptoms; 100 people died Median duration of illness was 9 days (range, 1 to 55) Clinical manifestations included watery diarrhea (93%), abdominal cramps (84%), fever (57%), vomiting (48%) $31.7 million in total medical costs and $64.6 million in total lost productivity 1993 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium Outbreak

34 Mental health: anxiety disorders, depression, psychological effects (Ebi et al. 2008) 34 Public Health Issues - Flooding

35 Humidity/Dew Point Increase Greater frequency of tropical-like atmospheric water vapor (Mark Seeley, 2012) 35

36 July 19, 2011: highest dew point temperature recorded ever in Minnesota 88°F dew point in Moorhead (combined with 93°F air temperature, it felt like 130°F) (State Climatology Office) 36 Humidity/Dew Point Increase

37 Heat Index 37 (Source: NWS, 2011b) The Heat Index (HI): calculation that describes how the air temperature and dew point are perceived the human body

38 Public Health Issues – Humidity & Heat Human health issues: heat rash, heat exhaustion, heatstroke, death Stressed livestock: reduced milk production, reproduction problems, death Algae blooms Mold Increased vector and microorganism populations 38

39 Decrease in Water Drought Lower water levels

40 Drought 40

41 Water Levels: Great Lakes Average Great Lakes levels depends on the balance between precipitation and evaporation (Hayhoe et al. 2010) 41

42 Public Health Issues – Drought & Lower Water Levels Reduced soil moisture reserves, groundwater supplies, lake and wetland levels, and stream flows Potential concentration of pollutants Decreasing water supply for drinking water and agriculture Agriculture: adversely affects crop progress and soil moisture and therefore food supply Wildfire dangers (e.g., Pagami Creek Fire, Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness – started August 18 th 2011; 92,682 acres as of Oct. 13 th 2011): injuries, property damage, anxiety, psychological effects 42

43 Increase in Water Temperature Changes in fish populations & mercury Algal blooms Reduced dissolved oxygen Incomplete mixing Increased vectors Invasive species/ northern expansion of organisms

44 Fish Populations & Mercury Warmer waters could harm fish populations and biological activity of cold aquatic ecosystems Warmer waters and rainfall intensity may be contributing to an increase in mercury concentrations in fish 44 Source: Peter Jacobson, DNR Fisheries Research Supervisor Conceptual diagram of climate warming effects on Minnesota fish communities

45 Harmful Algal Blooms & Reduced Dissolved Oxygen Increased pollution and temperatures can result in blooms of harmful algae and bacteria and reduce the amount of dissolved oxygen 45

46 Incomplete mixing Stratification Longer periods of stratification (surface and water bottom dont mix) may cause dead zones (low oxygen levels) and decrease self- purification capabilities of water features May cause fish kills, poor water quality, increased insect populations, etc. 46

47 Increased vectors Climate change may contribute to the breeding of insects (e.g., mosquitoes) and may increase the risk of vector-borne diseases (e.g., West Nile virus)

48 Invasive species & northern expansion of organisms Invasive species Asian carp Zebra mussels Sea lamprey DNR Invasive Species website: Expansion of disease-causing organisms Naegleria fowleri Many zebra mussels attached to a native mussel. Source: MN DNR

49 Public Health Strategies Green infrastructure Grey infrastructure Emergency Preparedness Individual Strategies 49

50 Green Infrastructure 50 Rely on natural processes: Evaporation Trees and plant cover Infiltration Rain gardens Pervious pavers Wetlands Above: Target Center Roof in Minneapolis Conservation Subdivision

51 Grey Infrastructure 51 Increase capacity of stormwater pipes, storage tanks and wastewater treatment facilities to accommodate larger rain events

52 Green & Grey Infrastructure 52 1.Protect natural drainage patterns, watersheds and water bodies 2.Infiltrate and collect water 3.Plant native, drought- resistant plants 4.Conserve water (e.g., low irrigation agriculture) 5.Reuse water Source: DNR, 2011d Water Management Solutions

53 Emergency Preparedness 53 Emergency preparedness: Plan for floods and extreme weather events Minnesota Water/Wastewater Agency Response Network (MnWARN): Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) website on preparing for floods: and-cleanup/cleanup-programs-and-topics/cleanup- programs/emergency-response/floods-minimizing-pollution-and- health-risks.html and-cleanup/cleanup-programs-and-topics/cleanup- programs/emergency-response/floods-minimizing-pollution-and- health-risks.html Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) website on protecting private wells from floods: d.html d.html Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program:

54 54 Individual Strategies Drink bottled water during and/or after a flood or outbreak Get your well tested Treat contaminated water ml ml Seek information on beaches prior to swimming and avoid visibly contaminated waters Beach info: Blue-green algae: Track fish consumption advisories Contaminated Water

55 Summary Water has always been an important and abundant resource in Minnesota Minnesotas climate is predicted to change in the future and will impact water quality and quantity There are serious public health issues related to: Increases in water Decreases in water Increases in water temperature Strategies to prevent injury and illness include infrastructure adaptation and public health planning and response 55

56 Acknowledgements 56 This work was supported by cooperative agreement 5UE1EH from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Special thanks to the following people for their contributions to the creation of this training module: Anita Anderson, MDH Patti Craddock, Short Elliott Hendrickson Inc. (SEH) Chris Elvrum, MDH Tannie Eshenaur, MDH Ann Pierce, DNR Angela Preimesberger, MPCA Lih-in Rezania, MDH Andrew Sullivan, Eden Prairie

57 Thank you 57 Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health Program: Questions? October 10, 2012

58 References 58 Associate Press. Karnowski, S Summer's heat taking toll on fish in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Dakotas. 7/12/2012. Reprinted by Pioneer Press: Austin JA, and Colman SM Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi: /2006GL Available online: Austin JA, and Colman SM A century of temperature variability in Lake Superior. Limnol. Oceanogr. 53, 2724–2730. Available online: Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [Gamble JL (ed.), Ebi KL, Sussman FG, Wilbanks TJ, (Authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA. Climate Institute Human Health. Available online: Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R, Ebi KL, Hauengue M, Kovats RS, Revich B and Woodward A Human health. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Conway T and Tans P NOAA/ESRL. Available online: Curriero FC, Patz JA, Rose JB, Lele S The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, American Journal of Public Health, 91(8): Davis JP, MD Case Study: Lessons from the Massive Waterborne Outbreak of Cryptosporidium Infections, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Bureau of Communicable Disease and Emergency Response, Wisconsin Division of Public Health. Available online: Dukes JS and Mooney HA Does global change increase the success of biological invaders?. Trends in Ecology & Evolution (4) Governor Dayton, M Individual Assistance request to President Barak Obama. July 19, Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Minnesotas Water Supply: Natural Conditions and Human Impacts. Available online: ___________ Water Availability Assessment Report. Available online: ___________. 2011a. Drought. Available online: ___________. 2011b. Flooding in Minnesota. Available online: ___________. 2011c. Lake Level Minnesota. Available online: index.html ___________. 2011d. Watershed Assessment Tool – Geomorphology Concepts. Available online: Desai, A.R., J.A. Austin, V. Bennington, and G.A. McKinley Stronger winds over a large lake in response to weakening air-to-lake temperature gradient. Nature Geosci. 2: 855–858. Available online: Ebi KL, Balbus J, Kinney PL, Lipp E, Mills D, ONeill MS, and Wilson M Effects of global change on human health. In: Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems [Gamble JL (ed.), Ebi KL, Sussman FG, and Wilbanks TJ (authors)]. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, pp

59 References (cont.) 59 Ellison CA, Sanocki CA, Lorenz DL, Mitton GB, and Kruse GA Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011–5045, 37 p., 3 app. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Federal Disaster Declarations. Available online: Field CB, Mortsch LD, Brklacich M, Forbes DL, Kovacs P, Patz JA, Running SW, and Scott MJ North America. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, and Hanson CE(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, pp Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, and Lo K Global Surface Temperature Change. Reviews of Geophysics 48: RG4004. p.12 Hayhoe, K., VanDorn, J., Croley, T., Schlegal, N., & Wuebbles, D. (2010). Regional climate change projections for Chicago and the U.S. Great Lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, Hondzo M, and Stefan HG. 1991: Three case studies of lake temperature and stratification response to warmer climate. Water Resources Research, 27(8), Horstmeyer, SL Relative humidity... Relative to what? The dew point temperature... a better approach. Available online: Karl TR, Melillo JM, and Peterson TC, (eds.) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press. Available online: Keeling R Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Available online: Kemble, et al Fatal Naegleria fowleri infection acquired in Minnesota: possible expanded range of a deadly thermophilic organism. Clin Infect Dis Mar;54(6): Epub 2012 Jan 11. Kessler R Stormwater Strategies: Cities prepare aging infrastructure for climate change. Environmental Health Perspectives. Vol 119, Num 12. Kling et al Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Union of Concerned Scientists. Available online: Konikow, L.F., and Kendy, E., 2005, Groundwater depletion: A global problem: Hydrogeology Journal, v. 13, p Kundzewicz ZW, Mata LJ, Arnell NW, Döll P, Kabat P, Jiménez B, Miller KA, Oki T, Sen Z and Shiklomanov IA Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, and Hanson CE(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, pp Midwestern Regional Climate Center Climate Change & Variability in the Midwest. Temperature and Precipitation Trends 1895 – Available online: change.htm# Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA). 2011a. Blue-green Algae and Harmful Algal Blooms. Available online: ___________. 2011b. Floods: Minimizing Pollution and Health Risks. Available online: programs-and-topics/cleanup-programs/emergency-response/floods-minimizing-pollution-and-health-risks.html programs-and-topics/cleanup-programs/emergency-response/floods-minimizing-pollution-and-health-risks.html

60 References (cont.) 60 Minnesota Public Radio (MPR). 2011a. Pagami Creek Fire in BWCA now estimated at 100,000 acres. Available online: __________. 2011b. Crazy record! Highest dew point ever at MSP Airport (82!). Available online: Monson, Bruce Trend Reversal of Mercury Concentrations in Piscivorous Fish from Minnesota Lakes: 1982#2006. Environ. Sci. Technol., 43 (6), Morel FMM, Kraepiel AML, and Amyot M. 1998: The chemical cycle and bioaccumulation of mercury. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 29, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Whats the Difference Between Weather and Climate? Available online: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Climate of Minnesota. Available online: National Parks Service What is Climate Change? Available online: National Weather Service (NWS) Heat: A Major Killer. Available online: __________________ Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook. Available online: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climactic Data Center, Storm Event Database. Available online: Noji EK. Natural disaster. Crit Care Clim 1991; 14: Ohl CA and Tapsell S Flooding and human health. BMJ 2000;321:1167 Santer BD, Thorne PW, Haimberger L, Taylor KE, Wigley TML, Lanzante JR, Solomon S, Free M, Gleckler PJ, Jones PD, Karl TR, Klein SA, Mears C, Nychka D, Schmidt GA, Sherwood SC, and Wentz FJ Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. International Journal of Climatology, 28(13), Seeley M Climate Trends and Climate Change in Minnesota: A Review. Minnesota State Climatology Office. Available online: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Alley RB, Berntsen T, Bindoff NL, Chen Z, Chidthaisong A, Gregory JM, Hegerl GC, Heimann M, Hewitson B, Hoskins BJ, Joos F, Jouzel J, Kattsov V, Lohmann U, Matsuno T, Molina M, Nicholls N, Overpeck J, Raga G, Ramaswamy V, Ren J, Rusticucci M, Somerville R, Stocker TF, Whetton P, Wood RA and Wratt D Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and Miller HL (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS). Data downloaded April Available online: State Climatology Office. Department of Natural Resources – Division of Ecological and Water Resources and the University of Minnesota – Department of Soil, Water, and Climate. Available online: Drought Information Resources ( information_resources.htm) Dew Point ( Dew Point July 19, 2011 Technical Analysis ( technical.pdf)

61 References (cont.) 61 State Climatology Office (cont.) Drought 1988 ( Drought 2011 ( Flash Floods ( Heavy Rainfall 2010 ( htm) Historic Lake Ice-Out Dates ( Minnesota State-Averaged Annual Precipitation Trends: ( doc/online_resources.htm Trenberth, K. E., J. T. Fasullo, and J. Mackaro. 2011: Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses. Journal of Climate, doi: /2011JCLI University of Minnesota Water Resources Center Minnesota Water Sustainability Framework. Available online: _ pdf _ pdf US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Agriculture and Food Supply. Available online: US Forest Service Incident Information System Pagami Creek Fire. Available online: US Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Summary : Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts. Available online: ________ The Water Cycle, a Quick Summary. (website). Accessed online May 2012: US National Hazard Statistics Accessed 7/30/2012. Available online: Water on the Web: Western Regional Climate Center. (WRCC) 2011a. Minnesota Temperature 1890 – 2010: 12 month period ending in December. Generated online November Available online: ________. 2011b. Minnesota Precipitation 1890 – 2010: 12 month period ending in December. Generated online November Available online: Williamson CE, Saros JE, and Schindler DW. 2009: Sentinels of change. Science, 323(5916), World Health Organization (WHO) Climate change and health. Fact sheet N°266. Available online: Zandlo, Jim Observing the climate. Minnesota State Climatology Office. Available online:

62 Photo Credits Slide 4: Photograph by Chaïna Bapikee Slide 7: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 12: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 15: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 19: Images from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 25: KEYC Television Slide 26: Photograph by Sam Choo, available at _relentless.shtml _relentless.shtml Slide 29: Photograph by Patsy Lynch/FEMA, August 23, 2007 Stockton Slide 30: Left image from Rachel Agurkis, Right image from Derek Montgomery for MPR Slide 31: Photograph by Ed Edahl/FEMA, May 14, 2009 Oslo Slide 32: Image of salmonella from Wikipedia, available at Slide 33: Photograph credit - Kathy Blair & Jeffrey P. Davis, MD Wisconsin Division of Public Health Slide 34: Photograph by Gettyimages Slide 35: Image by Tildology, available at Slide 36: The Weather Channel 2011 Slide 38: Top image from AFP/Getty Images (provided by Peter Synder, UMN) Slide 39: Left photograph DNR, right photograph by Chaïna Bapikee Slide 42: Photograph by Kate Houston Slide 43: Image from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 45: Photograph of blue-green algae, Source: MPCA Slide 47: Image of mosquito from Wikipedia, available at Slide 48: Image of zebra mussels from MN DNR, available at Slide 50: Top image from Pam Blixt, City of Minneapolis; bottom image from Microsoft Clip Art Slide 51: Image of culvert from Wikipedia, available at 62

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