1. GIS in Weather and Society Olga Wilhelmi Institute for the Study of Society and Environment National Center for Atmospheric Research

2. Presentation Outline  GIS basic concepts  How GIS can be used in weather / society research and applications  Current applications  Emerging developments / potential use  Example  Front Range Flash Flood Project  Breakout group and class discussions

3. GIS Science and Technology  GIS Science  University Consortium for geographic Information Science (http://www.ucgis.org/)  Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science (http://www.csiss.org/)  Weather, Climate and GIS: NCAR GIS Initiative (http://www.gis.ucar.edu)  Industry  ESRI, MapInfo, Informix, PCRaster. More than 3000 vendors  Standards  Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC)  Standards, specifications, middleware

4. People Procedures Hardware Data Geographic Information Systems Computer Mapping Spatial Analysis Database Management Software Analyze Display Output Capture Store Query

5. Image courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com) Organizing Spatial Data in a GIS Geology Population Hydrology Topography Weather Atmospheric Conditions The “G” in GIS = Geographic

6. Capturing Data  Methods for inputting geographic (X,Y) and tabular (attribute) data  Vast collection of geographically referenced data already exists in digital format  Resources on the Web  Satellite imagery, photography  Coordinates (X, Y) – weather station locations  Paper Maps

7. Storing Data  Vector formats  Discrete representation of reality (points, lines, polygons)  Raster formats  Use square cells to model reality

8. Query  Identifying specific features Identifying and selecting features based on certain condition

9. Analysis  Proximity  Overlay  Network  Spatial Statistics

10. Display  Maps  Graphs  Reports

11. Output  Paper Maps  Images  Internet

12. Current use of GIS  Mapping: visualization of information  Data integration: integrating environmental and social data in a single framework allows to address interdisciplinary questions on weather-society interactions  Data analysis: exploration of spatial patterns, relationships, networks; spatial statistics  Data distribution: disseminating weather and climate science to broader audiences

13. Images courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com) From Static to Dynamic

14. Ongoing and emerging research  Spatial Interoperability  Data formats  Compatible Tools  Multidimensional GIS (temporal, NetCDF)  Scale  Upscaling  Downscaling  Interpolation methods  Standards  Investigating coupled systems  Impact assessment of earth system changes

15. Meteorological Observations Radar mosaic and mobile surface temperature observations

16. Outputs from GCMs Outputs from GCMs Vulnerability of agricultural production and High Plains aquifer’s depleting water resources to predicted climate change in the Great Plains http://www.gisClimateChange.org

17. Impacts of permafrost thawing on infrastructure: Siberia

18. Potential applications for netCDF in GIS  Mesoscale weather predictions  Impacts of extreme weather events  Verification of model outputs  Decision support and management  Integration of weather forecast with socio- economic data

19. WRF forecast of Katrina in a GIS

20. Case Study  A Flash Flood Risk Assessment of the Colorado Front Range Region Using GIS  2005 SOARS project  Braxton Edwards, University of Oklahoma (SOARS protégé)  Olga Wilhelmi and Rebecca Morss, NCAR (SOARS mentors)

21. Problem  Yearly average of $4.5 Billion damage and 98 deaths between 1983 and 2003  Damage due to floods continues to rise as the population and property at risk increases  Accurate risk assessments can aid in determining appropriate flood control, mitigation, and response strategies

22. Study Area - Colorado Front Range

23. Risk Assessment  Risk = Exposure * Vulnerability  Exposure takes into account the environmental conditions or hazard  Vulnerability is a characteristic of a person or a group to cope with, resist and recover from a hazard

24. Demographic vulnerability weighting Total Vulnerability Vulnerability Assessment 65_up Hispanic Female Renter classificatio n Critical Facilities Identify Vulnerability Factors

25. 1 hour3 hour 6 hour Exposure Exposure assessment Radar rainfall FFG Basin Average FFG Watershed boundaries Basin average rainfall Watersheds

26. Total Risk Fort Collins 1,3, and 6 Hour Rain Accumulation Denver 6 Hour Rain Accumulation Risk=Exposure*Vulnerability Flood ExposureVulnerabilityUrban areas Case 1Case 2

27. Breakout Group Discussions  Vulnerability assessment:  Develop your own weighting system that adds to 100. These are your layers: population density renters females female households with at least one child Hispanic households children younger than 5 years old children between 5 and 17 years old population over 65 years old  Discuss results in class  Mapping and visualization

33. GIS in weather and society  GIS is a useful tool to study problems when people matter  GIS is a useful tool for integrative research  Ongoing research in Atmo-GIS offers new potentials