Presentation on theme: "STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2010* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *Updated 1/5/2011, based on December."— Presentation transcript:
STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2010* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *Updated 1/5/2011, based on December meeting of the State Board of Equalization
GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions) Actual Collections Appropriations $621.3 $772.8 $429.1 ($104.3) $428.3 OFFICIAL ESTIMATE $5,484.3m $5,068.1m $5,398.1m Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2011 – Ave. 2.43% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2011) – Ave. 1.89% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 9%) and ROADS increases (10 Session) Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2011 Act/Est – Normalized Ave. 2.26% $5,517.8m $253.8 $156.9 $527.2 Revenue Estimates and forecasts updated 1/5/11, based on December BOE General Revenue Fund Estimates. DECEMBER BOE ESTIMATE $5,103.2 $4,888.6
General Revenue Fund Sources Based on OSU Econometric Model Projections (In Millions) Ave.7.7% Growth Ave. 6.4% Growth Ave. 4.3% Growth Ave. 4.2% Growth Ave. 2.3% Growth BASED ON OSF OFFICIAL ESTIMATE BASED ON OSU ECONOMETRIC MODEL PROJECTIONS FY-2013 – FY-2015 SOURCES ARE SHOWN AS TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING UPDATED 1/5/11 BASED ON DECEMBER BOE ESTIMATES.
General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources (In Millions, With % Over Prior Year) 5.0% 7.6% 5.1% (7.8)% No adjustments for OHLAP or ROADS funding (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) 6.3% (16.4)% 0.9% ACTUALS * Based on OSU Econometric Model projections 5.0%