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RIP~ing Math: Probability Maki Kobori Hokulani Elementary 3 rd Grade March, 2007

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HCPSIII - Benchmarks MA.3.14.1: Probability Make reasonable predictions concerning the likelihood of an event occurring MA.3.13.1: Predictions and Inferences Answer questions based on data represented in graphs SC.3.1.1: Scientific Inquiry Pose a question and develop a hypothesis based on observations SC.3.1.2: Scientific Inquiry Safely collect and analyze data to answer questions

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Essential Question How can we make reasonable predictions to the likelihood of an event occurring based on data we collected? How can we prove that our predictions were correct?

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Rationale: Why is it important for students to learn the content or skills addressed in the lesson? It is important for the students to learn the content or skills because it will help them to make reasonable predictions to what will happen in the event and check if their predictions were correct or not correct. If their predictions did not come out as they expected, they would be able to see where and how they made the mistake, and they would be able to learn from their mistakes.

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GLOs Addressed: Self-directed Learner (The ability to be responsible for ones own learning) Self-directed Learner Community Contributor (The understanding that it is essential for human beings to work together) Community Contributor Complex Thinker (The ability to demonstrate critical thinking and problem solving) Complex Thinker Effective Communicator (The ability to communicate effectively) Effective Communicator Culminating Task: Students will be able to understand what probability is and make reasonable predictions of outcomes. Students will also be able to use RIP (Scientific Inquiry process) in math investigation. Assessment Tool: Benchmark Rubrics Classwork – Small group activity Observations Homework End of the chapter test

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Description of Lesson: 45 minutes lesson 1.Review previous lessons (Chapter 24: Lesson 1 and 2) – Probability (certain, impossible, likely, and unlikely) and outcomes. 2.Divide the students into 6 groups of 4: Same as their science group 3.Each group receives a bag which contains teddy bear counters and worksheets. 4.Tell students to take turn to pull out one bear from the bag. 5.Students record what they pulled out in Table 1 (Worksheet 1) – Tally Table 6.Each student pulls out 3 bear counters, total of 12 bear counters for each group. 7.Each group looks at their table and come up with a conclusion. Then each group shares their conclusions. 8.Whole-class discussion: 1.What did you find? 2.Develop a hypothesis (Outcomes): Predict what will happen if … then… because…

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9. Each group put a new set of bear counters in the bag (according to the hypothesis). 10. Tell students to take turn to pull out one bear from the bag. 11. Students record what they pulled out in Table 2 (Worksheet 2) – Tally Table 12. Each student pulls out 3 bear counters, total of 12 bear counters for each group. 13. Each group looks at their table and come up with a conclusion. Then each group shares their conclusions. 14. Whole-class discussion: What did you find? Was our hypothesis correct? Conclusion 15. Assign homework – PW (Practice Workbook) 126 and 127: Mix Reviews – Optional 16. Self-Assessment – Benchmark Rubrics

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Teddy Bear Experiment Teddy Bear Counters *Outcomes* TalliesNumbers Green ( 4 ) II2 Red ( 6 ) III3 Yellow ( 2 ) I1 Blue ( 12 ) IIII/ I6 Worksheet 1: Table 1

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Conclusion: What did you find out? We were more likely to pull out blue because there were more blue teddy bears in the bag. We were less likely to pull out yellow because there were only 1 yellow teddy bears in the bag.

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Hypothesis: If… then…because… 1.If we put 10 green, 4 yellow, 5 red, and 5 blue teddy bears in the bag, then we will more likely to pull out green teddy bears because there are more number of green bears than any other color. 2.If we put 7 green, 11 yellow, 5 red, and 1 blue bears in the bag, then it will be more likely to pull out yellow bears than any other bears because yellow has the most numbers of bears.

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Table 2: Teddy Bear Experiment Teddy Bear Counters *Outcomes* Tallies Numbers Green ( 10 ) IIII4 Red ( 5 ) II2 Yellow ( 4 ) III3 Blue ( 5 ) III3 Teddy Bear Experiment Teddy Bear Counters *Outcomes* Tallies Numbers Green ( 7 ) III3 Red ( 5 ) II2 Yellow ( 11 ) IIII/ I6 Blue ( 1 ) I1

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Conclusion: What did you find out? 1.We found out that green was more likely to pull out because it had the most number of teddy bears in the bag. 2.We found out that if there is more yellow in the bag, you are most likely to pull out yellow.

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Was your hypothesis correct? If not, why? 1.Yes, our hypothesis was correct because we pull out more green. 2.Our hypothesis was correct. Yahooooo!

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Conclusion of our experiment: The conclusion for our experiment was that if you put more of one color teddy bear counters than the rest, youll have a greater chance to pull out the color.

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Self- Assessment:

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