Presentation on theme: "Climate Change, and Public Health: the Botanical Perspective."— Presentation transcript:
1Climate Change, and Public Health: the Botanical Perspective. Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARSThanks to:Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha, NEJames Straka, PhD, Macalester College, St. Paul, MNDavid Frenz, MD, the Bethesda Clinic, St. Paul, MNJonathan Patz, MD Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MDDennis Gebhard, Multidata Inc., St. Paul, MNPaul Epstein, MD, Harvard, Boston, MAMaryland Department of Natural Resources, February 19, 2009
3I. An indirect effect of rising carbon dioxide: warmer temperatures. Gas%Nitrogen (N2)78.1Oxygen (O2)20.1Argon (Ar)0.93Carbon Dioxide (CO2)0.04 up to 0.100Water (H2O)0.05 to 1.00Carbon dioxide absorbs heat leaving the earth’s atmosphere. The more you put in the atmosphere, the more heat is trapped. This is a simple physical explanation of global warming.No H2O and CO2? Surface temperature would be –18oC. With H2O and CO2? Surface temperature is 15oC.
4H2O vs. CO2 Poles Winter latitude Deserts Equator If water vapor is high, it will be the dominant warming gas….little effect of CO2If water vapor is low, adding CO2 will increase the surface temperature.
5Greenland is meltingGreenland ice loss rate doubled in last 10 yrs5
6CO2, warming and public health. Changes in range of insect or rodent borne diseases.Changes in water or seafood borne diseases.Increasing ground-level ozone, and respiratory ailments.Contamination of drinking water due to excessive flooding.Heat-related deaths / fewer cold related.
7So what if CO2 goes up?, Part II, direct impacts Carbon dioxide is the source of carbon for photosynthesis, and consequently for 99% of all life.CO2Food, GloriousFood!Nutrients, H2OCO2 + H2O + light O2 + organic C + chemical energy
8Plants are Important. Michael Crichton, Page 86, “Jurassic Park” Plants are necessary for the flow of energy and carbon throughecosystems. 90% of all living matter consists of plant life.With the exception of a few subterranean organisms, if plantsdid not exist, life would not exist.Plant growth however is dependent on four physical inputs.Any perturbation in these inputs will alter all living systems.“People who imagined that life on earth consisted of animals moving against a green background, seriously misunderstood what they were seeing. That green background was busily alive. Plants grew, moved, twisted and turned, fighting for [resources]; and they interacted continuously with animals—discouraging some with bark and thorns, poisoning others, and feeding still others with pollen and seeds. It was a complex, dynamic process…one which most people didn’t understand. “Michael Crichton, Page 86, “Jurassic Park”
9But isn’t more plant growth desirable? “We are living in an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals as a result of the carbon dioxide increase. This is a wonderful and unexpected gift from the industrial revolution.” WSJ
10CO2 is a VERY smart molecule. Green is not always good.
11All life will be affected not only by temperature, but by the increase in carbon dioxide of and by itself. What are the implications for Weed Biology? Specifically:Crops and weedsInvasive weedsPublic Health.
12How can plants affect public health? Some direct effects: Allergies / Asthma:Contact dermatitis:Poison/Toxicology:
131. CO2, plants and allergies Principle Fall Allergen~35 million sufferersCommon ragweed.
14Determining Ragweed Pollen Production Sampling pollen from ragweed catkins.
15Response of common ragweed to CO2 g plant-1Pollen Production280 ppm g370 ppm g*600 ppm g*Antigen Amb a1 ELISA / mg protein280 ppm370 ppm 5290600 ppm 8180*Chamber Study, USDAFunctional Plant Biology 27:Functional Plant Biology 32:280370600
16Ragweed in real lifeAll this is “blue-sky” hypothetical &*^$%# anyway. It won’thappen in real-life, and even if it does, temperature and carbondioxide effects are a long ways away.10,000 feet on a mountaintop in Hawaii.Mauna Loa, “Official” CO2 data.
17Is the rise in CO2 the same everywhere? Change in average day-time CO2 concentration (ppm) from downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm.455.5402.2386.2
18Is the increase in temperature the same? 20.719.118.6Change in average daily temperature (oC) from downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm (2002).
19Urbanization and climate change. Are these differences consistent?CO2 differencesAugust, 2004What about other meteorological variables?8-h daytime ozone.2004 seasonOverall: Urban-induced increases in carbon dioxide, airtemperature and growing season are consistent with most IPCCnear-term scenarios. With the exception of N deposition, othervariables did not differ consistency, but N low relative to soil N.
20And if it isn’t…Can we study the effects of climate change NOW? Placing four 2x2 m2 plotsNear downtown Baltimore.Use same soil and seed bankin suburban and rural locations.
21Got ragweed?2006Urban locale had longer growing season (milder winter), warmertemperatures, and more carbon dioxide.
22Allergenic pollen producers, Western Weeds: Season: April through NovemberRagweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Russian thistle (Salsola kali) Fireweed (Kochia scoparia)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Yellow Dock (Rumex crispus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)Allergenic pollen producers, Mid-Western Weeds:Season: May through OctoberRagweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Ragweed (A. trifida) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Russian thistle (Salsola kali) Fireweed (Kochia scoparia)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)Allergenic pollen producers, Southern Weeds:Season: April through NovemberRagweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Yellow Dock (Rumex crispus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)Allergenic pollen producers, Northeast Weeds:Season: May through SeptemberRagweed (A. atemissiifolia) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Giant Ragweed (A trifida) Russian thistle (Salsola kali)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Pigweed (A. retroflexus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)Mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris)
23Fungal decomposition of plants. Alternaria alternata has been associated with a number of respiratory problems such as rhinitis, asthma, allergic dermatitis and allergic sinusitis. The spores are the cause of the allergic reactions.For timothy grass grown from ppm CO2, risingcarbon dioxide levels results in reduced leaf N levels.Initial data suggest that increased C:N ratios couldincrease the rate of sporulation.
242. CO2, plants and contact dermatitis Can rising CO2 alter plant based dermatitis?
25The Duke University FACE Site: State of the Art.
293. CO2, plants and poisonCastor bean (Ricinus communis), produces ricin, one of the deadliestpoisons known to man. Increasing CO2 by 300 ppm results in a 34%increase in photosynthesis (Grimer and Komor 1999).Vanaja et al. (2008) reports large response to rising CO2.
30How can plants affect public health? Some indirect effects: Food and Nutrition.Medicines / Narcotics.Disease vector biology.Pesticide use.
31CO2 and human nutrition.% Flour protein from wheat lines released during the 20th century.Recent cooperative work with NIH indicates an increase in omega-3-fattyacids in mung bean with rising CO2.
32Rice and temperature Temperature / Flowering -There is already evidence that there has been a trend for an increase in heavy precipitation events in our region.Rice and temperature
34Agriculture and water Rice production Today, approximately 230,000 people were added to the population. Three cereals, rice, wheat and corn feed 50% of that population. These cereals in turn are heavily dependent on irrigation.~80% of freshwater is used in irrigation.How will we maintain food supply with less water?Rice production
35The “Big Three” at present. Rice1980s: 3.1% per year1990s: 1.4% per year2000s: 0.8% per yearWheat1980s: 2.9% per year1990s: 0.9% per year2000s: 0.4% per year
36Only maize has kept pace with population. 1980s: 2.2% per year1990s: 2.5% per year2000s: 3.5% per yearEnergy Independence?Maize is a heavy user of nitrogen fertilizer. This comes fromnatural gas (Haber process, N2NH4NO3).Russia: 47,570 billion ft3 Iran: 26,370 billion ft U.S.A.: 5,600
372a. CO2, plants and medicine Approximately 15% of all current pharmaceuticals in developed countries arederived solely from plants (85% in undeveloped countries).
38Alkaloids derived from plants CocaineAtropineCaffeineNicotineCodeineMorphineScopolamineThebaine
402b. CO2, plants and narcotics. Effects unknownGrowth increases.Anecdotal evidence
41Papaver setigerum DC. (Wild poppy) Quantify growth and alkaloid production to carbon dioxide300 ppm ~1950400 ppm Current500 ppm ~2050600 ppm ~2090
42P. setigerum is sensitive to even small (100 ppm) increases in carbon dioxide.Greatest relative stimulation has occurredwith recent (last few decades) CO2 increase.
43Averages P-valueVariable CO2 Effect____________________________________________________________Capsule No ***Capsule Wt. (g) ***Latex (mg) ***Morphine (%)Concentration of other alkaloids did not increase with increasing CO2.
443-4 x increase in alkaloid production in wild poppy with recent and projected CO2 increases. Accepted in Climatic Change
45Nicotine production Nicotine Concentration 294 ppm 4.7 µg g-1
463. CO2, plants and disease vectors plants are not vectors per se, but: Hanta virusNectar & pollenCO2 / temperature
474. CO2, plants and pesticide usage. Why can’t we just control these weeds?Ambient CO2Future CO2As carbon dioxide increases, glyphosate efficacy is reduced
48Canada thistle: Best of the worst. We are not clear why invasives would show a strong response to carbon dioxide, there may be a number of mechanistic explanations. However, in the case of Canada thistle, below ground production (root biomass) appears to be a strong responsive sink when additional carbon dioxide is given. In this experiment, the ratio of elevated to ambient represents the growth of shoots (aboveground) and roots (below-ground) biomass at current and current +250 ppm CO2.3 years of field trials at +250 ppm above ambient.
49A synopsis of CO2 impacts on herbicide efficacy Efficacy is reduced in a number ofstudies. The basis for the reduction isnot entirely known. However, if morepesticides are needed to kill weeds, thenmore trace chemicals are likely in theenvironment.Change in growth rate (g dry matter per day) for agronomic and invasive weeds when sprayed at recommended rates of herbicide at either: (A) current CO2 or (B) future CO2 levels ( ppm). All growth rates less than 0.1 resulted in plant death. Herbicide was glyphosate in all cases except Canada thistle1, which was sprayed with glufosinate. Overall, these data indicate a greater resistance to chemical control in weedy species as a function of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. The basis for a CO2 induced reduction in herbicide efficacy is not entirely clear. In the case of Canada thistle, we believe it is related to CO2 induced increases in root growth relative to shoot growth (see slide 23), and a subsequent dilution of the herbicide. Weed control could, presumably still be achieved by increasing the concentration of the herbicide, or the frequency of spraying, but this would carry as yet unknown economic or environmental costs.
50Climate change, plants and public health Direct EffectsAllergiesContact dermatitisToxicologyIndirect EffectsNutritionMedicineSpread of disease vectorsIncreased pesticide use.
51What is USDA doing?In the last 6 years have lost one full time scientist, and two three technicians.Budget cut every year for the last 6 years. The new farm bill has no money for studying climate change and agriculture. No stimulus funding.National Program 204, Global warming and agriculture was eliminated in May of (although some work may continue)