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Copyright Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. (ERT), 2003. Request to reproduce all or part of this material should be made to ERT. Harnessing the power.

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Presentation on theme: "Copyright Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. (ERT), 2003. Request to reproduce all or part of this material should be made to ERT. Harnessing the power."— Presentation transcript:

1 Copyright Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. (ERT), 2003. Request to reproduce all or part of this material should be made to ERT. Harnessing the power of markets... to protect and improve the environment. Wiley Barbour Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. April 2004 History and Transitions of Global Warming Programs and Policies

2 Early History of Global Warming Science 1824 - Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier- 1824 - Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier- First described greenhouse effect 1896 - Svante Arrhenius- 1896 - Svante Arrhenius- Burning coal emits CO2 which warms earth 1938 - Guy Callendar- 1938 - Guy Callendar- Man changing atmosphere, may lead to warming As man is now changing the composition of the atmosphere at a rate which must be very exceptional on the geological time scale, it is natural to seek for the probable effects of such a change. From the best laboratory observations it appears that the principal result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide... would be a gradual increase in the mean temperature of the colder regions of the earth. G. S. Callendar (1939), British Steam Engineer

3 . Indicators of the Human Influence on the Atmosphere during the Industrial Era a) Different symbols denote ice core data for several sites in Antarctica and Greenland b) Lines indicate sulphate concentrations in ice cores in Greenland. Pluses denote the regional estimated SO 2 emissions. Source: IPCC WG I (Science) Summary for Policy-Makers, Third Assessment Report, 2001.

4 1950s - 1960s – 1970s Early 1950s- Global warming theories get revived attention Early 1950s- Global warming theories get revived attention 1958- Keeling begins monitoring of CO2 in atmosphere at Mauna Loa, Hawaii and the South Pole. 1958- Keeling begins monitoring of CO2 in atmosphere at Mauna Loa, Hawaii and the South Pole. Early 70s- Four major climate modeling centers established Early 70s- Four major climate modeling centers established 1979- World Climate Conference 1979- World Climate Conference

5 1980s 1987- Montreal Protocol established timeline for phase-out of CFCs 1987- Montreal Protocol established timeline for phase-out of CFCs –Successful linkage between science and policy communities –Many of the key players turned their attention next to global climate change 1989- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) launched to provide assessment of science

6 1992 Earth Summit Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) signed by 154 nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) signed by 154 nations Came into effect March 21, 1994 Came into effect March 21, 1994 Currently ratified by 155 nations including the United States Currently ratified by 155 nations including the United States Goal: avoid dangerous interference with the climate system Goal: avoid dangerous interference with the climate system How to enforce? How to enforce?

7 Designing a Compliance Framework Legally binding vs Non-binding Legally binding vs Non-binding All GHGs vs CO2 only All GHGs vs CO2 only Pledge-based vs Principal-based Pledge-based vs Principal-based Type of coverage: Type of coverage: –Project –Sector –National –regional

8 Types of Commitments: International carbon TAX International carbon TAX Internationally harmonized POLICIES AND MEASURES Internationally harmonized POLICIES AND MEASURES Fixed emission target: CAP ON EMISSIONS (Kyoto) Fixed emission target: CAP ON EMISSIONS (Kyoto) Dynamic emission target: LIMIT ON EMISSIONS relative to GDP growth Dynamic emission target: LIMIT ON EMISSIONS relative to GDP growth Dual emission targets: SAFE ZONE between a high and a low target Dual emission targets: SAFE ZONE between a high and a low target Emission Target with COST CAP (safety valve) Emission Target with COST CAP (safety valve)

9 The first meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP-1) under the UNFCCC The first meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP-1) under the UNFCCC Berlin Mandate –Quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives within specified time-frames –Targets and Timetables 1995 COP-1 Berlin, Germany

10 1997 COP-3 Kyoto, Japan Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol Caps emissions from developed countries and economies in transition Caps emissions from developed countries and economies in transition Annex I Parties agreed to Annex I Parties agreed to – reduce their overall emissions of six greenhouse gases, – by at least 5% below 1990 levels, – between 2008 and 2012 (the first commitment period), – specific targets varying from country to country. Emissions trading of Allowances and Project Reductions Emissions trading of Allowances and Project Reductions Registries Required to Track Progress Registries Required to Track Progress

11 Recent US Climate Policy Withdraw from international negotiations Withdraw from international negotiations Voluntary Programs and Partnerships Voluntary Programs and Partnerships –PCA, Climate Leaders, Pew Center, CCX California Climate Action Registry California Climate Action Registry Regional GHG Initiative Regional GHG Initiative –Mandatory Cap on CO2 –Lead by NY and including NY, NJ and NE states

12 Different registries for different purposes

13 GHG Partnerships, Registries and Trading Platforms ERs for retirement US UK ETS Compliance/MandatoryVoluntary KP JI CDM ET PCF ERUPT/ CERUPT DK ETS DOE 1605(b) Climate Leaders CA Registry Australia GHG Challenge Canada VCR ERT EDF PCA Climate Savers OR Climate Trust Clean Air Canada GERT BPI CCX RGGI

14 Develop Comprehensive multi-year Climate Protection Action Plan Develop Comprehensive multi-year Climate Protection Action Plan Encourage GHG mitigation via Encourage GHG mitigation via – Binding Cap on Emissions, or Voluntary Emission Registry Projects that work in NC: Projects that work in NC: –Methane reductions from agricultural wastes –Methane reductions from confined animal feed operations –Carbon sequestration in forests and soils –Renewable energy that displaces fossils fuels Level the playing field for Renewables: Level the playing field for Renewables: –Strive toward new RPS standards –Use NOx set-aside as a solid first step Recommendations for North Carolina

15 NC Greenpower will not stimulate demand for renewables at current price levels 51015202560180 Geothermal Biomass Wind C&I NC Greenpower Solar SmallHydro LFG C&I Sweet Spot ($1–3) ($2-4) ($2-5) ($1-6) ($4-20) $22.50 ($60-180) REC Price ($ per MWh) Residential NC Greenpower $40 SoutheastBiomass ($4-6) Avg Utility Greenpower $26

16 Will North Carolina Continue to Lead? Copyright Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. (ERT), 2003. Request to reproduce all or part of this material should be made to ERT. Wiley Barbour Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. 202-785-8577 x14 wbarbour@ert.net


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