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Roberts T. Jones Education and Workforce Policy June 14, 2006 THE JOBS REVOLUTION Messages From A Changing World: Illinoiss Pipe Line to Economic Success.

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Presentation on theme: "Roberts T. Jones Education and Workforce Policy June 14, 2006 THE JOBS REVOLUTION Messages From A Changing World: Illinoiss Pipe Line to Economic Success."— Presentation transcript:

1 Roberts T. Jones Education and Workforce Policy June 14, 2006 THE JOBS REVOLUTION Messages From A Changing World: Illinoiss Pipe Line to Economic Success Illinois Education/Workforce Summit

2 The Global Reality American Economic Perspective(1945-2000) American Economic Perspective(1945-2000) American Dominance…No Competition American Dominance…No Competition Unskilled Jobs with Good Pay and Benefits Unskilled Jobs with Good Pay and Benefits High Standard of Living High Standard of Living Universal Education, HE Ed Access, & R&D Investments Universal Education, HE Ed Access, & R&D Investments Flexible Labor Market Policies Flexible Labor Market Policies Growth in Global Competition(1970 forward) Growth in Global Competition(1970 forward) Population Larger, Younger, & More Urban (51%) Population Larger, Younger, & More Urban (51%) Availability of Technology and Financial Mobility Availability of Technology and Financial Mobility Political and Economic Stability Political and Economic Stability Education & R&D Investments Education & R&D Investments New Trade and Economic Partnerships New Trade and Economic Partnerships

3 CHALLENGE TO AMERICA Increasing Global Competition CHALLENGE TO AMERICA Increasing Global Competition

4 Developing Nations 19702 Times 19702 Times 20055 Times 20055 Times 20259 Times 20259 Times W orld Bank

5 Education Gains 1990 2003 1990 2003 Ghana Adult Lit 58.5 73.8 EthiopiaPrimary 31.8 66.0 Thailand Secondary 30.8 81.4 ChileTertiary 21.3 42.4 Kuwait Primary 60.2 93.6 Secondary 42.9 89.3 Tertiary 12.1 20.9 World Bank (Ed Stats)

6 Developing Nations Now Constitute… 40% of the Worlds 50 Largest Economies 50% of the 50 Fastest Growing Economies 70% of the 20 Fast Growing in Industrial Output 5.5% Annual Growth in HE Grads vs 1% 20% of the 50 Largest R&D Investors 90% of Worlds S/E in Asia by 2010 Economist

7 Market Impacts Growth of Educated and Skilled Workforce Growth of Educated and Skilled Workforce Increased Productivity Increased Productivity Increased Quality Increased Quality Innovation Innovation Lower Wage Lower Wage Hagel/Brown Hagel/Brown The Only Sustainable Edge The Only Sustainable Edge

8 Americas Leadership.. Americas Leadership.. US Share of World Output: US Share of World Output: Was 40% down to 21%Was 40% down to 21% US Industrial Patents: US Industrial Patents: Only 52% are US Patents…Lowest in HistoryOnly 52% are US Patents…Lowest in History World Published Research: World Published Research: US was 61% down to 29%US was 61% down to 29% Primary/Secondary Ed Primary/Secondary Ed From #1 to #9 by 2003From #1 to #9 by 2003 College Attendance: College Attendance: US was 1 st in World down to 6 thUS was 1 st in World down to 6 th Council on Competitiveness

9 Its Not That We Are Failing… Schools Achievement in Early Grades, Minorities, and HE ParticipationAchievement in Early Grades, Minorities, and HE Participation Companies Companies Increased Competitiveness, Productivity, & New IndustriesIncreased Competitiveness, Productivity, & New Industries Labor Unions Labor Unions Responding to New Market Realities and Job StructuresResponding to New Market Realities and Job Structures I.E. CWA, Plumbers and Pipe Fitters,etcI.E. CWA, Plumbers and Pipe Fitters,etc Economy Economy Job Growth High & Unemployment Lowest in WorldJob Growth High & Unemployment Lowest in World High GDP/GNP Growth & Increased Standard of LivingHigh GDP/GNP Growth & Increased Standard of Living WE ARE IN A RACE TO THE TOP WE ARE IN A RACE TO THE TOP

10 The United States Can Still Prosper In a World Where Its Labor Costs Are Higher Than The Competitions, But It cannot Do That If The Cheaper Workers Abroad Are Also Better Educated Also Better Educated NY Times, Sept 6 NY Times, Sept 6

11 CHALLENGE TO AMERICA Economic Impact of Changing Economic Impact of Changing Demographics Demographics

12 Future US Labor Force…Smaller Demographics Demographics – Slow Population Growth (1% PY) –.03% by 2030 – Slow Labor Force Growth (Less than 1% yr) – Aging Population (Fewer Working Age) – Growth in Minorities and Immigrant Population Illinois Population Growth.05% PY Illinois Population Growth.05% PY Decline in Labor Force Decline in Younger Entrants Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 More DiverseMore Diverse 198020202050 198020202050 White 82%63% 53% Minority 18%37% 47% Hispanic 6%17% 24% BLS Illinois Workforce 1/3 Minority by 2030

14 Less Educated Loss in Workforce with BA or Higher Degrees Loss in Workforce with BA or Higher Degrees 198020202050 Majority82%63%53% (30% BA+) (Ill 40.%) Growth in Workforce With Lowest Level Education Growth in Workforce With Lowest Level Education Minority18%37%47% (15% Black)(16%) (15% Black)(16%) (11% Hispanic BA+) (13%) (11% Hispanic BA+) (13%)NCPPHE

15 Economic Impact Decrease in Better Educated Workforce Decrease in Better Educated Workforce Growth in Less Prepared Workforce Growth in Less Prepared Workforce Impact on Personal Income!! Impact on Personal Income!! 1980 to 2000 +41% 2000 to 2020 -02% Significant Loss of: Significant Loss of: Tax RevenueTax Revenue Consumer Spending, etcConsumer Spending, etc Support for Higher EducationSupport for Higher Education -5.6% Shortfall in Illinois State Revenue by 2014 -5.6% Shortfall in Illinois State Revenue by 2014 NCPPHE NCPPHE

16 CHANGING JOBS, SKILLS, AND EMPOLYMENT RELATIONSHIPS

17 Projected Job Growth 1.4% Growth PY (Ill 1.0%) 1.4% Growth PY (Ill 1.0%) Vs 1% Growth in Labor Force (Ill 0.6%) 80% of New Jobs Require Some Post Secondary Ed 80% of New Jobs Require Some Post Secondary Ed 12% Unskilled & Dropping to 2% 12% Unskilled & Dropping to 2% Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Future US Labor Markets (continued) Shortages Shortages – Demand for Skilled Labor Continues to Grow Labor Shortage of 7 million by 2010 21 million in 2020 21 million in 2020 Health CareTechnology EngineersTechnicians TeachersServices ManufacturingCorrections -Illinois Reports Shortages: TechnologyHealth EngineeringServices ManufacturingTeachers BLS/IDES

19 Impact of Productivity Job Loss Job Loss Productivity 90%Productivity 90% Outsourced 10%Outsourced 10% From Low-skill to Knowledge Jobs: From Low-skill to Knowledge Jobs: – Complex Knowledge-based – Higher-level Academics – Cognitive/ Problem-solving Reorganization of Work: Reorganization of Work: – Multi-task & Cross-Functional – Adaptable skills – Increased Responsibility Education and Certification are Criteria for Hiring. Education and Certification are Criteria for Hiring.

20 Employer Projections Competitive Advantage by 2020 Competitive Advantage by 2020 98% Quality of Management98% Quality of Management 95% Skills of Workforce95% Skills of Workforce 92% Cross-functional Application92% Cross-functional Application Greatest Workforce Growth Greatest Workforce Growth 85% Complex Knowledge-Based Role85% Complex Knowledge-Based Role 85% Developed Communication & Judgment85% Developed Communication & Judgment Major Change in Next 20 years Major Change in Next 20 years 95% Point to Skills of Workforce95% Point to Skills of Workforce Economist Survey 05

21 Horizontal and Mobil Labor Markets Job Tenure Shorter Job Tenure Shorter Broader and Higher Job/Skill Broader and Higher Job/Skill Continual Evolution of Applied Skills Continual Evolution of Applied Skills Portability of: Portability of: SkillsSkills Pensions & BenefitsPensions & Benefits Intellectual CapitalIntellectual Capital Education Key to Personal Security and Standard of Living

22 IMPACT OF EDUCATION Work or College: The Same!!

23 Meanwhile…Education Premium Growing Earning Differential HS Vs BA Degree Earning Differential HS Vs BA Degree 1980 50%1980 50% 2006100%2006100% 2020???2020??? Unemployment GAP Widens.. Unemployment GAP Widens.. Less Than HS8.3%Less Than HS8.3% HS5.1%HS5.1% Some College4.2%Some College4.2% BA Degree2.75%BA Degree2.75% Welfare, Crime, Health Ins, etc. Welfare, Crime, Health Ins, etc.

24 READY FOR COLLEGE AND READY FOR WORK : Same or Different? ACT Study Brings Closure to the Argument About College vs Workforce Preparation. ACT Study Brings Closure to the Argument About College vs Workforce Preparation. College Without RemediationCollege Without Remediation Sustainable Living Wage JobSustainable Living Wage Job Carpenter, Electrician, Plumbers Carpenter, Electrician, Plumbers Rigorous Core Curriculum and High Achievement Standards For ALL Students Rigorous Core Curriculum and High Achievement Standards For ALL Students ACT, May 2006

25 EDUCATION Are We Ready?

26 Current K-8 System… All Students Not Brought to StandardAll Students Not Brought to Standard Not Taking Rigorous Courses (Ill)Not Taking Rigorous Courses (Ill) 35% Taking Algebra I ? 23% Low Income Proficient10% 8 th Grade Achievement8 th Grade Achievement 30% Proficient in Math29%* 30% Proficient in Math29%* 31% Proficient in Reading31%* 31% Proficient in Reading31%* 42% Proficient in Science27%* 42% Proficient in Science27%* 41% Proficient in Writing ? 41% Proficient in Writing ? **2000 and 2002 **2000 and 2002 * NAEP 2005

27 Current K-12 System… 40% Students Unprepared for College/Wk 40% Students Unprepared for College/Wk Only 56% Take Core Curriculum (46% Ill) Only 56% Take Core Curriculum (46% Ill) 51% Reading at College Level 51% Reading at College Level ACT Test Takers Ready for College Level Work ACT Test Takers Ready for College Level Work(Ill) 26% Biology25% 26% Biology25% 41% Algebra38% 41% Algebra38% 68% English63% 68% English63% 51% Social Sci45% 51% Social Sci45% 21% All Fields20% 21% All Fields20%ACT

28 Increasing Minority/Low Income Participation and Success College Entrance, Retention, and Achievement Directly Correlated to: College Entrance, Retention, and Achievement Directly Correlated to: Core CurriculumCore Curriculum College Readiness in all Four DisciplinesCollege Readiness in all Four Disciplines Academic Preparation Trumps Race and Income Academic Preparation Trumps Race and Income CRB All Minority CRB All Minority Attendance79% 49%Attendance79% 49% Retention85% 70%Retention85% 70%

29 Illinoiss Challenge 13% Drop in HS Grad Rates 13% Drop in HS Grad Rates 75% of 9 th Grade Complete HS75% of 9 th Grade Complete HS Minority Less Than 50%Minority Less Than 50% Less Than 50% Core Curriculum Less Than 50% Core Curriculum 37% Black37% Black 39% Hispanic39% Hispanic Ready For College/Work? Ready For College/Work? 65% High Income..20% Low Income65% High Income..20% Low Income 11% Black and 17% Hispanic11% Black and 17% Hispanic Illinois Lacks Student Tracking System Illinois Lacks Student Tracking System Wide Disparity in School Funding (Performance?) Wide Disparity in School Funding (Performance?) State Lowered 8 th Grade Math Test Score State Lowered 8 th Grade Math Test Score

30 Current HE System.. Increasing Enrollments Increasing Enrollments Only 6 of 10 Graduate in 6 Years Only 6 of 10 Graduate in 6 Years Only 54% of Low Income Obtain Deg Only 54% of Low Income Obtain Deg 53% Remediation 53% Remediation Graduate Competency Has Dropped Graduate Competency Has Dropped 33% Decrease in Sci/Math/Eng 33% Decrease in Sci/Math/Eng Popular Majors Vs Strong Liberal Education Popular Majors Vs Strong Liberal Education Affordability Dilemma Affordability Dilemma

31 Higher Ed NAPE… College Credentials in Question.. 19922003 Prose Literacy40%31% Document Literacy37%25% Quantitative Literacy31%31%

32 Illinois HE System 1 Illinois Top States Community College Return53%63% 4 Yr College Return 79%84% BA Within 6 Yrs58%*64% Certs & Degrees1721 Per 100 Students Working Age Adults4.9%5.4% *Hispanics 50% Less Likely to Complete NCPPHE

33 Affordability and Access Illinoiss Dilemma State Support for HE Reduced in last 25 years. State Support for HE Reduced in last 25 years. Resulting in Shift to Increased Tuition Funding Resulting in Shift to Increased Tuition Funding Percent of Family Income for Tuition Percent of Family Income for Tuition Out of Step with Other States. IllinoisTop States Comm College 21%15%Comm College 21%15% Public 4 yr30%16%Public 4 yr30%16% Private 4 yr62%32%Private 4 yr62%32% Same Time Illinoiss Per Capita Income Is Decreasing Same Time Illinoiss Per Capita Income Is Decreasing HE Least Affordable for Those Most In Need of HE Access HE Least Affordable for Those Most In Need of HE Access

34 COMMITMENT TO AMERICAS FUTURE

35 K-8 Education Changing the Culture Accountability for All Students to Standard by 3 rd, 6 th, and 9 th Grade Accountability for All Students to Standard by 3 rd, 6 th, and 9 th Grade Remedial Investments Remedial Investments Increased Number of 8 th Graders Taking Higher Level Math and Science Increased Number of 8 th Graders Taking Higher Level Math and Science Principals Must Have Management Flexibility for: Principals Must Have Management Flexibility for: Teacher AssignmentTeacher Assignment Alternative Learning SystemsAlternative Learning Systems

36 K-12 EDUCATION New American High School K-12 EDUCATION New American High School Core Curriculum for All Students Core Curriculum for All Students All Students Brought to Standard All Students Brought to Standard Focus on Low Income, Minority, and Low AchieversFocus on Low Income, Minority, and Low Achievers Increased Investments in Remediation and Student Support Increased Investments in Remediation and Student Support Accountability and Flexibility for Principals Accountability and Flexibility for Principals Data Tracking for All Students/Schools Data Tracking for All Students/Schools

37 ADULT WORKFORCEEmployment Insurance Academic and Industry Recognized Outcomes Academic and Industry Recognized Outcomes Increased Opportunities for Working-age Adults for Post Secondary Ed and Training Increased Opportunities for Working-age Adults for Post Secondary Ed and Training Continuous Access/Financial Support for Post Secondary Ed, Certificate Training, and Degrees. Continuous Access/Financial Support for Post Secondary Ed, Certificate Training, and Degrees. Assured Access To The Ever Changing Labor Market In A Flat World

38 HIGHER EDUCATION Renewed Commitment HIGHER EDUCATION Renewed Commitment Accountability Accountability Clearly Defined Core Curriculum and Competency ExpectationsClearly Defined Core Curriculum and Competency Expectations Assess and RemediateAssess and Remediate Students, Curriculum, and Professoriate Students, Curriculum, and Professoriate Education Pipeline Education Pipeline K-12 Partnership AlignmentK-12 Partnership Alignment Teachers Teachers Curriculum and Assessments Curriculum and Assessments K-16 Policy CouncilK-16 Policy Council Financing, Standards, Curriculum, and Assessments Financing, Standards, Curriculum, and Assessments

39 HE Continued… Affordability Affordability Constraining Escalating College CostsConstraining Escalating College Costs Joint Venture, Partnerships, Teaching Vs Research Joint Venture, Partnerships, Teaching Vs Research Increased Economic Investment in HEIncreased Economic Investment in HE State, Federal, and Private State, Federal, and Private Increase Needs Based SupportIncrease Needs Based Support Increase Access To Comm College (Low Income & Minority) Increase Access To Comm College (Low Income & Minority) Continuous Improvement Continuous Improvement Continual Updating of Curriculum, Standards, Application, and ProfessorsContinual Updating of Curriculum, Standards, Application, and Professors PartnershipsPartnerships Business, NGOs, Non-Profits, Education, etc Business, NGOs, Non-Profits, Education, etc New and Flexible Learning OptionsNew and Flexible Learning Options HE Must Work to Reflect The World In Which Students Will EnterHE Must Work to Reflect The World In Which Students Will Enter

40 ILLINOISS COMMITMENT TO HIGH SKILLS AND HIGH WAGES! Opportunities and Challenges

41 Illinoiss Future… Experience Workforce Experience Workforce Flat Population Growth Flat Population Growth Flat Labor Force Growth Flat Labor Force Growth Loss of High Wage…Low Skill Jobs Loss of High Wage…Low Skill Jobs Growing Demand of High Skill Jobs with PS Education Growing Demand of High Skill Jobs with PS Education Increase Minority/Low Income Preparation Increase Minority/Low Income Preparation Need More Affordable Access to PS Ed Need More Affordable Access to PS Ed Economy Depends on Raising Academic Achievement of Low Performing Students

42 Education Must Be Recognized As… The #1 Economic Issue For Our Future Education No Longer Relegated.. Discretionary Spending One of Many Budget Priorities Effective Education Must Become a Right of Every Child…Not Merely an Opportunity

43 THANK YOU Roberts T. Jones Roberts T. Jones Education and Workforce Policy Education and Workforce Policy 200 12 St. South Suite 701 Arlington, VA 22202 Tel: 703 416 0723 www.educationworkforcepolicy.com THE JOBS REVOLUTION: Changing How America Works www.jobsrevolution.com


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