Presentation on theme: "EMC Research, Inc. 436 14th Street, Suite 820 Oakland, CA 94612 (510) 844-0680 EMC 09-4174 Presentation of Survey Results Likely June 2010 Mt. Diablo Unified."— Presentation transcript:
EMC Research, Inc. 436 14th Street, Suite 820 Oakland, CA 94612 (510) 844-0680 EMC 09-4174 Presentation of Survey Results Likely June 2010 Mt. Diablo Unified School District Voters November 2009
Mt. Diablo Unified School District EMC 09-4174 2 Likely June 2010 voters in Mt. Diablo Unified School District Interviews conducted November 18-24, 2009 602 total telephone interviews Overall margin of error: ±4.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval Interviews conducted by trained, professional interviewers As with any opinion research, the release of selected figures from this report without the analysis that explains their meaning would be damaging to EMC. Therefore, EMC reserves the right to correct any misleading release of this data in any medium through the release of correct data or analysis. Please note that due to rounding, percentages may not add up to exactly 100% Methodology City Number of interviewsWeighted % Margin of error Clayton616% ± 12.6 Concord20243% ± 6.9 Martinez608% ± 12.7 Pittsburg252% ± 19.3 Pleasant Hill9015% ± 10.3 Walnut Creek9017% ± 10.3 Unincorporated749% ± 11.4
Mt. Diablo Unified School District EMC 09-4174 3 Would you say that public schools in the Mount Diablo Unified School District have a great need for more money, some need for more money, only a little need or no real need for more money? Q7 Nearly all voters say the District needs at least some more money
Mt. Diablo Unified School District EMC 09-4174 4 Regardless of whether or not you have children currently in school, using a scale of excellent, good, only fair, or poor, please rate the following areas relating to the Mount Diablo Unified School District: Q8- 10 Voters rate all aspects of the District poorly; each job rating is worse among current District parents
Mt. Diablo Unified School District EMC 09-4174 5 Id like to read you a list of things the parcel tax could pay for. After each one, please tell me how high a priority that item is for you. Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 is not important at all, and 7 is very important. Q17 -34 Voters top priorities are core academics Mean
Mt. Diablo Unified School District EMC 09-4174 6 Ballot question To provide all students with a quality education, including reading, writing, math and science; ensure reliable, local funding that will stay in our local schools to attract and retain good teachers; maintain vital college and career preparation programs; and restore programs eliminated by State budget cuts; shall the Mount Diablo Unified School District be authorized to levy $99 per parcel annually, for six years, with no funding for administrators salaries, and strict monitoring by an independent citizen oversight committee?
Mt. Diablo Unified School District EMC 09-4174 7 Support today is the same as on election day in May 2009; in a simulated campaign, support remains below two-thirds Given what youve heard, if the election were held today, would you vote Yes to approve or No to reject the measure? Q53 38% 57% 35% 60% 29% 66% 56% 38% 39% 55%
Mt. Diablo Unified School District EMC 09-4174 8 Segmentation Based on the votes in the survey, District voters can be divided into four categories: Base support 37% Voters likely to support an education parcel tax regardless of the dollar amount Price-sensitive support 21% Voters who seem inclined to support a parcel tax but may be concerned about the cost Combined with base supporters, the current overall level of support is similar to that on election day in May 2009 Messaging target 12% Voters who are not initially supportive of a measure but who seem persuadable by clear, consistent information and messaging campaigns However, these voters are open to opposition messaging, as well, particularly on the issue of taxes: 56% said they would vote against any tax increase (Q15) Opposition 30% These voters nearly one-third are unlikely to support an education parcel tax Anti-tax sentiment is high: 80% would vote against any tax increase (Q15)
Mt. Diablo Unified School District EMC 09-4174 9 Conclusions Voters agree that local schools need more money Many voters have genuine concerns about a parcel tax: Will it cost too much? Will it fund the things that matter to me? Both an information campaign and a political campaign for a parcel tax must address both of these questions To pass the Districts first parcel tax, the dollar amount needs to be low, even if that means tough conversations with parents and other supporters about the political realities and the Districts long-term strategy Voters need to hear from trusted messengers that the funds from a parcel tax will help: Support core academic programs a focus on the basics Ensure student success at local, neighborhood schools Impact students in the classroom, and prepare them for college and careers Above all else, the emphasis should be on local communities principals, teachers, parents and not on the District, its budget or its leadership As shown in the segmentation, passing a parcel tax in the District will be a fight for just a few percentage points; this effort will require a strong campaign organization, sustained over a considerable length of time
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