1. Experimental seasonal hydrologic forecasting for the Western U.S. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Andrew W. Wood, Alan F. Hamlet Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Climate Prediction Applications Workshop Tallahassee, FL March 10, 2004

2. Project Domain / Website

3. Forecasting System Evolution (Funding from: NASA NSIPP; OGP/ARCS; OGP GAPP), NASA Applications) 1998-9 2000 2001 2003 2004 Ohio R. basin w/ COE: First tried climate model-based seasonal forecasts on experimental (retrospective) basis Eastern US: First attempted real-time seasonal forecasts during drought condition in southeastern states -- results published in: Wood et al. (2001), JGR Columbia R. basin: Implemented approach during the PNW drought, again using climate model based approach 2002 Western US: Retrospective analysis of forecasts over larger domain (for one climate model and for ESP) Columbia R. basin: New funding for “pseudo-operational” implementation for western US; began with pilot project in CRB Western US: expanded to western U.S domain for real-time forecasts; working to improve and evaluate methods each forecast cycle

4. 1. Downscaling 2. VIC hydrologic simulations UW Experimental West-wide hydrologic prediction system ESP as baseline fcst Real-time Ensemble Forecasts Ensemble Hindcasts (for bias-correction and preliminary skill assessment) West-wide forecast products streamflow soil moisture, snowpack tailored to application sectors fire, power, recreation * ESP extended streamflow prediction (unconditional climate forecasts run from current hydrologic state) climate model output (NCEP, NSIPP) CPC official forecasts (in progress)

5. Challenge: Climate Model Forecast Use bias-correcting… then downscaling… CRB domain, June precip

6. Overview: Bias Correction specific to calendar month and climate model grid cell  numerous methods of downscaling and bias correction exist  the relatively simple one we’ve settled on requires a sufficient retrospective climate model climatology, e.g.,  NCEP: hindcast ensemble climatology, 21 years X 10 member  NSIPP-1: AMIP run climatology, > 50 years, 9 member

7. Overview: VIC Hydrologic Model

8. Overview: Hydrologic Simulations Forecast Products streamflow soil moisture runoff snowpack derived products e.g., reservoir system forecasts model spin-up forecast ensemble(s) climate forecast information climatology ensemble 1-2 years back start of month 0end of mon 6-12 NCDC met. station obs. up to 2-4 months from current 2000-3000 stations in western US LDAS/other real-time met. forcings for remaining spin-up ~300-400 stations in western US data sources obs snow state information initial conditions

9. Problem: met. data availability in 3 months prior to forecast has only a tenth of long term stations used to calibrate model Solution: use interpolated monthly index station precip percentiles and temperature anomalies to extract values from higher quality retrospective forcing data, then disaggregate using daily index station signal. Challenge : Hydrologic State Initialization dense station network for model calibrationsparse station network in real-time

10. Overview: Initial snow state assimilation Problem sparse station spinup incurs some systematic errors, but snow state estimation is critical Solution use SWE anomaly observations (from the 600+ station USDA/NRCS SNOTEL network and a dozen ASP stations in BC, Canada) to adjust snow state at the forecast start date

11. Overview: Initial snow state assimilation SWE state differences due to assimilation of SNOTEL/ASP observations, Feb. 25, 2004

12. Overview: Initial conditions Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and Soil Moisture

13. Overview: Streamflow Forecast Locations

14. Overview: Spatial Forecasts monthly values, anomalies and percentiles of: precip, temp, SWE, soil moisture, runoff give streamflow forecasts greater context SWE soil moisture

15. Overview: Streamflow Forecasts hydrographs targeted statistics raw ensemble data

17. Challenge: Balancing IC effort with forecast effort Columbia R. Basin (CRB) Rio Grande R. Basin (RGB) RMSE (perfect IC, uncertain fcst) RMSE (perfect fcst, uncertain IC) RE =

19. www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Projects/fcst/ Some obstacles and opportunities in hydrological application of climate information The “one model” problem Calibration and basin scale (post-processing as an alternative to calibration) The value of visualization Opportunities to utilize non-traditional data (e.g. remote sensing)