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Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005

2 Norges Bank 2 Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts Source: Consensus Forecasts 20052006 1) China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines

3 Norges Bank 3 Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat Quarterly change in US GDP Annualised contribution to growth in volume. Per cent. Seasonally adjusted

4 Norges Bank 4 Source: EcoWin / National statistics CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area, and Japan Percentage change on same month previous year US Euro area Japan UKGermany

5 Norges Bank 5 Consumer prices in the Nordic countries Percentage change on same month previous year Source: EcoWin / National statistics Norway (CPI-ATE) Sweden (UND1X) Denmark* Sweden (UND1X excl. energy) * CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Finland

6 Norges Bank 6 Developments in 10-year government bond yields Germany Norway US IR China London: Source: EcoWin / National statistics

7 Norges Bank 7 Movements in stock exchange sub-indices. Total return, indexed. 3 Jan 2005 = 100 Source: EcoWin 1) Calculated as the average of the IT and telecom indices 2) Estimated as the average of the industrials and materials indices NorwayWorld ICT 1) Financials Industrials 2) Energy ICT 1) Financials Industrials Energy

8 Norges Bank 8 Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 9 August 28 June Sweden UK

9 Norges Bank 9 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices Daily figures, USD per barrel. Jan 2002 – Aug 2005 8 August Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 24 June (IR 2/05)

10 Norges Bank 10 Difference between oil price for delivery next month and 6-7 years ahead USD per barrel of light crude. Daily figures. Jan 2004 – Aug 2005 2005 2004 Sources: EcoWin/ NYMEX

11 Norges Bank 11 Oil production in Norway Million barrels per day. Monthly figures, Jan 2000 – Jun 2005 Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate Projection from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate Production

12 Norges Bank 12 CPI-ATE Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services 1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 2/05 (broken line).12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7) 1) Norges Bank's projections Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE

13 Norges Bank 13 Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and in External Trade Statistics, and in I-44 4-quarter change. Per cent. 98 Q1 – 05 Q2 1) Norges Bank's projections: Clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture, food and beverages 2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and cars I-44 Imported consumer goods in External Trade Statistics 1) Imported consumer goods in the CPI 2) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

14 Norges Bank 14 Number employed in millions and average working hours as a percentage of a normal working week (37.5 hours). Seasonally adjusted Source: Statistics Norway Employed (left- hand scale) Average working hours as a percentage of a normal working week (right-hand scale)

15 Norges Bank 15 House prices Percentage change on same month previous year Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)

16 Norges Bank 16 Business tendency survey Business climate index Seasonally differentiated diffusion index Source: Statistics Norway

17 Norges Bank 17 Total debt non-fin. enterprises mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households and non-financial enterprises (C2). 12-month change. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Households (C2) Non-financial enterprises (C2) Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3)

18 Norges Bank 18 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) A fall in value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily figures Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 8 August 2005 28 June 2005

19 Norges Bank 19 Projected CPI-ATE and the output gap in the baseline scenario. Quarterly figures. Per cent. 04 Q1 – 08 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank CPI-ATE Output gap


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