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BASKETBALL ON PAPER 1 Example Math Projects in Basketball Dean Oliver Author, Basketball on Paper Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics Math in Sports.

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Presentation on theme: "BASKETBALL ON PAPER 1 Example Math Projects in Basketball Dean Oliver Author, Basketball on Paper Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics Math in Sports."— Presentation transcript:

1 BASKETBALL ON PAPER 1 Example Math Projects in Basketball Dean Oliver Author, Basketball on Paper Consultant to the Seattle Supersonics Math in Sports Symposium Seattle, WA May 13, 2006

2 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 2 Possible Math Uses in Basketball Checking data Evaluating players Evaluating contracts Developing analysis tools Checking tactics Estimation of missing data, etc. …anything…

3 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 3 Where to Get Data Newspaper Books Sporting News, NBA Guide, NBA Register Total Basketball Internet Dougstats.com NBA.com Basketball-Reference.com 82games.com Ask me

4 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 4 What Data Look Like Who? Player or player type Ref Team Franchise League What? Traditional stats Calculated stats Collect-your-own stats Physical attributes Financial data When? Career Season Game Quarter Possession What level? High school College Minor league International NBA

5 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 5 Analysis Come up with questions Who is better? (Right now? Individual production or help team to win by doing role?) Should you double-team Shaquille ONeal? (How much? Reduce team or his efficiency?) Are the Sixers better off without Allen Iverson? (Short or long term?) How important is a bench or big contracts or biggest contract or a superstar? (To winning a championship?) Cast things in terms of concepts What statistics reflect winning? Gather data Seasonal and boxscore data readily available Make estimates Track own data Do analyses Set up equalities, inequalities Set up time frame Report in concrete terms How to convince a non-math person? Room for soft things, not measured

6 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 6 Example 1: Checking Data Data from Dougstats.com

7 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 7 Example 1: Checking Data Minutes Team = Minutes Opponents Sum of Individuals = Team? Minutes: 116+…+ 121 = 1142 Sum of Games Started/5 = Games? ( )/5 = 6 Minutes/5/Games = 48 if no overtime? 1442/30 = Points = 2*FGM + FG3M + FTM Team FGA – FGM >= Team OREB + Opp DREB

8 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 8 Example 2: Basic Analysis Continuing with data from Dougstats.com Why did Chicago lose to Miami? Bulls couldnt handle Shaq Tyson Chandlers injury Big picture to little picture

9 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 9 Example 2: Basic Analysis Offense or defense? Possessions = FGA – OR + 0.4*FTA + TOV Average estimates to get Rating: Pts/Poss*100 Offense: 590/570.3*100 = Defense: 608/570.3*100 = Playoff Avg: 107.4

10 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 10 Example 2: Basic Analysis Four Factor Analysis eFG%: (FGM * FG3M)/FGA O: D: Avg: TOV%: TOV/Poss O: D: Avg: 0.146

11 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 11 Example 2: Basic Analysis Four Factor Analysis (cont.) OR%: OR/(OR + OppDR) O: D: Avg: FTratio: FTM/FGA O: D: Avg: 0.275

12 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 12 Example 2: Basic Analysis Breaking down eFG% Was it Shaq? What was wrong with the Bulls?

13 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 13 Example 2: Basic Analysis Was it Shaq?

14 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 14 Example 2: Basic Analysis What was wrong with the Bulls?

15 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 15 Example 3: Estimation of Rebounds College data for Dwyane Wade (basketball-reference.com) How many offensive and defensive rebounds?

16 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 16 Example 3: Rebound Estimation Basic: Offensive rebounds are typically about 30% of total Oreb = 0.30*420 = 126 Dreb = 420 – 126 = 294

17 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 17 Example 3: Rebound Estimation More detailed: From Chicago example, we see breakdown by position: Use PG info: Oreb = 0.05*420 = 21 Dreb = = 399

18 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 18 Example 3: Rebound Estimation More information: In 2003, in 28 games, Wade had 52 offensive rebounds and 176 total rebounds Set OREB = x x/209 = 52/176 => x = ~ 62 Dreb = 209 – x Percentage = 61.75/209 = 29.5% Assume that percentage OREB in 2002 = 0.295*211 = 62 DREB in 2002 = = 149

19 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 19 Example 4: Opponent Rebound Estimation Available information from ESPN.com: In 31 games, Arizona 2002 had 334 offensive rebounds, 711 defensive rebounds (1045 total), and went from the field In 26 games, Arizona 2002 opponents had 898 total rebounds and went from the field What is their opponents offensive rebounding percentage?

20 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 20 Example 4: Opponent Rebound Estimation Scale and assume 30%? Scale up: TREB/31 = 898/26 TREB = 1071, OREB = 321, DREB = 750 But… Team FGA – FGM >= Team OREB + Opp DREB Arizona: >= ? 1010 < 1084 Opp: ( )*31/26 >= ? 1143 >=1032

21 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 21 Example 4: Opponent Rebound Estimation Assume same proportion of Total Rebounds to Missed Shots for Arizona and opponents (AZ OR + Opp DR)/(AZ FGA – AZ FGM) = (Opp OR + AZ DR)/(Opp FGA – Opp FGM) Opp DR + Opp OR = equations and 2 unknowns Opp OR = 412, Opp DR = 658 OR are 38% of total (next year, actual was 35%)

22 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 22 Example 5: Unit Conversion Lots of units in basketball: Per Game Per 48 minutes Per 40 minutes Per Minute Per Team Possession Per Individual Possession

23 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 23 Example 6: Percentage of Shots Assisted Data from NBA.com or Dougstats.com Ray Allen FG, 289 AST, 3069 Minutes Seattle team FG, 1483 AST, Minutes Multiple factors affect %asstd Minutes played Assists by teammates FGM by teammates

24 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 24 Example 6: Percentage of Shots Assisted One (bad) estimate: Asstd FG= (Assists by teammates)/(Minutes by teammates)*(Minutes by Player) =(TmAST – AST)/(TmMin – Min)*Min =( )/( )*3069 =220 Doesnt consider FGM by player

25 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 25 Example 6: Percentage of Shots Assisted Better estimate: %Asstd: Assists by teammates/FGM by teammates Assists by teammates = (TmAst/TmMin*5*Min – Ast) FGM by teammates = (TmFGM/TmMin*5*Min – FGM) Considers all info, at least indirectly

26 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 26 Example 6: Percentage of Shots Assisted Better estimate: Sum of chances of each player assisting others =0.472 (Actual 47%) See Basketball on Paper, Appendix 1

27 BASKETBALL ON PAPER Dean Oliver 27 Finally… Repeated experiments! Use the structure of Basketball on Paper Are players similar? Play games Chart games for data Other suggestions?


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