1. ERTAC 1DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

2. Presentation Overview 1.Process Overview and Timelines 2.Inputs 3.Algorithm Details 4.Results 5.Outstanding issues 2DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

3. 1. Process Overview and Timelines a.What is the ERTAC Growth Committee? b.Criteria for product c.Committee structure d.Progress & Timeline 3DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

4. What are we trying to accomplish ? Develop Methodology to Create EGU FY Emission Inventories that meets certain criteria: – Conservative predictions of unit activity – Relies primarily on state knowledge of unit retirement, fuel switching & controls – Can be re-run iteratively to look a variety of scenarios – Stable/stiff – Transparent – Inexpensive – Relies on base year activity data – Flexible 4DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

5. ERTAC EGU Growth Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee Collaboration: – NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan states – Multi-jurisdictional organizations – Industry [adds weight who in industry] How were they involved Realistic inputs and refine the logic, such as reserve capacity 5DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

6. Subcommittees and Co-Chairs ERTAC EGU Growth Committee Co-chairs: – Laura Mae Crowder, WV DEP – Bob Lopez, WI DE – Danny Wong, NJ DEP Four Subcommittees and Leads: – Implementation/Doris McLeod VA, Mark Janssen, LADCO: Create logic for software – Growth/Bob Lopez, WI & Laura Mae Crowder, WV: Regional specific growth rates for peak and off peak – Data Tracking/Wendy Jacobs, CT: Improve default data to reflect state specific information – Renewables & Conservation Programs/Danny Wong, NJ & Laura Boothe, NC: Characterize programs not already included in growth factors 6DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

7. State Involvement Regional lead identified per RPO to coordinate their state review of model and inputs State leaded identified in each state for QA of the input files These representatives will also review the output to provide guidance If Future Year (FY) emission goals are not met given known controls, states will indicate what strategy will be applied to meet the goal 7DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

8. Progress So Far.... Model Development: – Methodology created, documentation crafted – Preprocessor & projection running on Linux and Windows (GA, VA, MARAMA, IN, NJ, OTC) – Developing postprocessing software Estimating Growth in Generation: – Growth rates and regions defined – Created growth rate inputs for 2009 & 2010 8DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

9. Progress So Far.... Input File Development: – Unit file and future controls file reviewed by states – Cap files are being converted to use CAIR caps – Further state input ongoing Results: – Ran through first iterations of the postprocessor – Distributed to member states for review Sensitivities: – Conducted scenarios with varied techniques for input values – Ran alternative growth rate sensitivities 9DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

10. ERTAC Timeline September - October, 2012 Initial “East of the Mississippi” test runs Goal: Demonstrate a “Proof of Concept” Review output, revise and rerun Present results to states for comment November, 2012 Goal: Determine areas of improvement Present to full ERTAC Committee Present model and “Proof of Concept” results to USEPA technical staff Spring 2013 Goal: Improve input and model Develop AEO 2012 growth factors which reflect new fuel mix paradigm Anticipated Future tasks Develop new base year 2011 DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE10

11. Data Importation a.Inputs b.Preprocessing c.Growth Rates 11DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

12. ERTAC Inputs Starting Point: BY CAMD activity data – Gross load hourly data, unit fuel, unit type, location – Units categorized by: Fuel Type [Boiler Gas, Oil, Simple Cycle, Combined Cycle, Coal] Region [AEO regions (e.g. MACE, LILC, WUMS)] States review provides known new units, controls, retirements, fuel switches, etc EIA AEO growth factors NERC peak growth factors 12DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

13. Preprocessing Functions Data Edit Checks – Unit availability file – Controls file – Growth rates file – BY hourly CAMD data Removes non-EGUs Determines hourly temporal hierarchy – Based on regional hourly GL – Important for load distribution and growth rates 13DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

14. Preprocessing Functions Assigns hourly usage profile for FY to new units Assesses partial year reporting units Creates unit hierarchies for growth distribution For every hour, calculates “hourly load values” by region and fuel/unit type – Retired generation – New unit generation – Existing generation Calculates “non peak” growth rates 14DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

15. Growth Rates (GR) Hour specific growth rates allow program to adjust temporal profile of unit based on regional and fuel/unit type hourly growth profiles – Resulting FY profile might different from BY Provides ability to understand effects of peak episodic GR and control programs on air quality AEO Growth combined with NERC peak growth – Peak Growth – First 200 hour in hierarchy – Transition growth – 200-2000 hours in hierarchy – Non-peak growth – last remaining hours in hierarchy out to 8760 hours. Combined factor is further adjusted to account for: – Retirements & new units 15DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

16. The evolution of growth rates from annual to hourly Transition (hours 201-2000 in hierarchy) AEO2010 (by region/fuel) Nonpeak Growth (hours 2001-8760 in hierarchy) NERC (by region/fuel) Peak Growth (hours 1-200 in hierarchy) Final Hourly Growth Adjusted for retirements/new units each hour 16DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

17. Growth Rates Peak GR = 1.07 Annual GR = 0.95 Transition hours of 200 & 2,000 Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated) 17DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

18. EIA's AEO Projection of Coal Consumption for Electricity Generation 18DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

19. EIA's AEO Projection of Gas Consumption for Electricity Generation 19DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

20. EIA's AEO Projection of Oil Consumption for Electricity Generation 20DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

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22. 3. Algorithm Details a.Regional modularity b.Adjusted FY Growth Rates c.Excess generation pool d.Generic units e.New Unit Utilization f.Spinning Reserve 22DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

23. Regional/Fuel Modularity Each ERTAC region analyzed independently Reserve analyzed on a regional basis Algorithm determines if capacity has been met for each hour for the region and fuel/unit type 23 Use new units For all ERTAC Regions For all Fuel/Type Bins Analyze capacity versus demand Assign generation Spinning Reserve DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

24. Current ERTAC Regions DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE24

25. Adjusted Future Year Growth Rates (AFYGR), Hour Specific For every region and fuel/unit type, each hour has a variable value for: – Total FY Load (Hour Specific GR * BY Load=FY Gen) – Total Retired Generation (RetGen) – Total New Unit Generation (NU Gen) GR for each hour adjusted before application to existing unit hourly BY loads! AFYGR = (FY Generation – NU Gen) (BY Generation – RetGen) 25DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

26. Excess Generation Pool If unit growth exceeds capacity – Unit is limited to capacity – Demand beyond capacity added to the excess generation pool for that hour/region/ fuel/unit type bin The pool is distributed to other units in unit allocation hierarchy order – Units receive power up to optimal threshold or max capacity in two distribution loops – Power distribution ceases when pool is depleted or all units are at capacity (generic unit must be created to meet demand) 26DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

27. New Generic Units Added to meet demand Utilization determined on a fuel/unit type basis, similar to new state supplied units Receive unmet demand Size/location of generic units adjustable FY temporal profile assigned by region and fuel/unit type If a generic unit is added, the allocation hierarchy is recalculated and the loop begins at the first hour 27 First/next hour in the hierarchy Does capacity meet demand? Add generic unit Reallocate unit order Begin at first hour in the hierarchy Y N DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

28. New Unit Utilization New units receive generation from the excess generation pool – Annual power production limited by default or state input – Temporal profile based on similar unit (mimic) — program allows user to change the “mimic” unit New units (generic and state supplied) are high in utilization relative to other similar units because assumed to be: – Very efficient – Very clean Variables assigned to region and fuel/unit type characteristics are adjustable 28DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

29. Spinning Reserve check Following assignment of generation Check if reserve capacity is available for each hour in each region If in any hour there is not reserve capacity equal 100% of the capacity of the largest unit operating of any fuel type, a flag is raised 29 Determine reserve capacity needs for that hour Is unused capacity > reserve capacity ? Y N Alert: More capacity needed First/next hour DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

30. Results a.Output b.Examples c.Runtime 30DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

31. Output/Results Future year hourly activity – Heat input (mmbtu) – Gross load (MW) – SO2 emissions (lbs) – NOx emissions (lbs) File includes 8,760 hours for each: – Existing unit that is not retired – New state supplied unit – New generic unit created by the code Summary files Post-projection processing: graphs, more summaries, etc 31DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

32. Output from ERTAC EGU V1 Unit level Overall output 32DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

33. Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW Annual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012 DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE33 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 BYFY Mmbtu/hr Calendar Hours Variations in growth rate

34. Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW Annual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012 DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE34 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Mmbtu/hr Calendar Hours Inefficient hour BY: 11,232 BTU/KW-hr FY: uses updated heat rate 50 hour depiction for an individual unit BYFY

35. Example: Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW – SO2 Control Annual GR=1.018, Peak GR=1.056, Nonpeak GR=1.012 DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE35 BYFY BY lbs/hr Calendar Hours FY lbs/hr

36. Example: Combined Cycle New Unit, 300 MW Annual GR= 0.904, Peak GR=1.2, Nonpeak GR=0.901 DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE36 New units are supplied with temporal variability with grounding in base year meteorology

37. Example: Simple Cycle Existing Unit, 53 MW Annual GR=1.39, Peak GR=1.549, Nonpeak GR=1.377 DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE37

38. Post-projection Processing Graphical Output – Page 1 Example 38DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

39. Post-projection Processing Graphical Output – Page 2 Example 39DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE

40. Ver. 1 summary results – all regions DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE40 Heat Input SO2 Emissions NO X Emissions Generation AEO2010 says growth in coal Controls plus clean new units Shutdowns w/ new clean units

41. In summary The model has been built Output has been generated Continuing effort to evaluate output and update inputs – Partial year reporters – Generic units – Unit hierarchies – Thing Two New growth factors based on AEO 2012 are needed Scenarios can be built to evaluate policy 41DRAFT - DO NOT DISTRIBUTE