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WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research Beth Ebert, JWGFVR co-chair WGNR meeting, Geneva, 8-10 Feb 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research Beth Ebert, JWGFVR co-chair WGNR meeting, Geneva, 8-10 Feb 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research Beth Ebert, JWGFVR co-chair WGNR meeting, Geneva, 8-10 Feb 2011

2 2 Aims Verification component of WWRP Develop and promote new verification methods Training on verification methodologies Ensure forecast verification is relevant to users Encourage sharing of observational data Promote importance of verification as a vital part of experiments Promote collaboration among verification scientists, model developers and forecast providers Collaborate with WGNE, WCRP, CBS

3 3 Working group members Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) Barb Brown (NCAR, USA) Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada) Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil) Anna Ghelli (ECMWF, UK) Martin Göber (DWD, Germany) Simon Mason (IRI, USA) Marion Mittermaier (Met Office, UK) Pertti Nurmi (FMI, Finland) Joel Stein (Météo-France) Yuejian Zhu (NCEP, USA)

4 4 Sydney 2000 FDP -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0102030405060 Forecast (min) Skill MAE Bias (mm) sprog

5 5 Sydney 2000 FDP TITANEXTRAP

6 6 Sydney 2000 FDP MAE Bias Boundary position error

7 7 Beijing 2008 FDP Real Time Forecast Verification (RTFV) system Fast qualitative and quantitative feedback on forecast system performance in real time –Verification products generated whenever new observations arrive Ability to inter-compare forecast systems 3 levels of complexity –Visual (quick look) –Statistics (quantitative) –Diagnostic (more information)

8 8 Training In personOnline

9 9 Domain and variables Outer Beijing Beijing Urban Beijing Reflectivity, cell tracks, T-storm strike probability Precipitation, probability of precipitation Wind gusts, lightning

10 10 Precipitation accumulation Observations Forecasts

11 11 Standard verification

12 12 Diagnostic verification (non-real time) Power spectral density Contiguous rain area (CRA) Intensity-scale Neighborhood methods Forecast quality metric (FQM)

13 13 Survey of BMB forecasters and FDP experts Real time verification considered very useful Forecasters preferred scatter plots and quantile-quantile plots Experts wanted capability to drill down to more specific information Web interface not user-friendly enough

14 14 B08FDP lessons for real time verification Format and standardization of nowcasts products was critical to making a robust verification system Difficult to compare "like" products that were produced with slightly different aims (e.g., QPF for warning vs hydrological applications) Verification system design could be improved –Better display of forecasts with observations –User control of verification parameters for exploring results

15 15 SNOW-V10 Verification plan –User-oriented verification for Olympic period of all forecasts, tuned to decision points of VANOC –Verification of parallel model forecasts for Jan to August 2010 –Nowcast and regional model verification Rich dataset for user-oriented verification and research Processing started

16 16 SNOW-V10 observations

17 17 Suggested categories for SNOW-V10 analysis

18 18 Visibility verification

19 19 Wind verification

20 20 Sochi 2014 Standard verification Possible verification innovations: Road weather forecasts Real-time verification Timing of events – onset, duration, cessation Verification in the presence of observation uncertainty Neighborhood verification of high-resolution NWP, including in time-height plane Spatial verification of ensembles User-oriented probability forecast verification

21 21 Publications Recommendations for verifying deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts Available on WWRP web site Coming soon: Recommendations for verifying cloud forecasts Later this year (?): Recommendations for verifying tropical cyclone forecasts

22 22 Publications January 2008 special issue of Meteorological Applications on forecast verification –Verification review paper authored by JWGFVR members –18 contributed papers from participants in 2007 International Verification Methods workshop

23 23 Publications DVD from 2009 Helsinki Verification Tutorial Video and powerpoint lectures –Verification basics –Continuous verification –Categorical verification –Warnings verification –Probabilistic verification –Spatial verification –Statistical inference Available from WMO

24 24 Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project International comparison of many new spatial verification methods Methods applied by researchers to same datasets (precipitation; perturbed cases; idealized cases) Subjective forecast evaluations Workshops: 2007, 2008, 2009 Weather and Forecasting special collection 13 papers on specific methods, 2 overview papers

25 25 Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project

26 26 Facial verification?

27 27 Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project Future variables –"Messy" precipitation –Wind –Cloud –Timing errors Future datasets –MAP D-PHASE –SRNWP / European data –Nowcast dataset(s)?? A model for verification test bed

28 28 Outreach Strong focus of the WG EUMETCAL training modules completed (Nurmi, Wilson) Verification web page Sharing of tools Tutorials (traveling and on-site) –ECMWF (Jan 2007) –South Africa (Sept 08) –Helsinki (June 2009)

29 29 International Verification Methods Workshops 4 th Workshop – Helsinki 2009 Tutorial 26 students from 24 countries 3 days Lectures, hands-on (took tools home) Group projects - presented at workshop Workshop ~100 participants Topics: –User-oriented verification –Verification tools & systems –Coping with obs uncertainty –Weather warning verification –Spatial & scale-sensitive methods –Ensembles –Evaluation of seasonal and climate predictions

30 30 Workshop: New verification research Spatial methods applied to: Wind fieldsEnsemble forecasts

31 31 Workshop: New verification research ExtremesDiagnostics False alarm ratio Hit rate

32 32

33 33 5 th International Verification Methods Workshop Melbourne, December 2011 3-day tutorial + 3-day scientific workshop Additional tutorial foci –Verifying seasonal predictions –Brief intro to operational verification systems Capacity building for FDPs/RDPs, SWFDP, etc.

34 34 New focus areas for JWGFVR research Seamless verification – crossing space/time scales Ensemble predictions Warnings / extreme events, especially timing Aviation Multivariate verification – joint distributions

35 35 Future collaboration with WGNR SNOW-V10 Sochi 2014 WENS? SWFDP (Africa, SW Pacific, SE Asia) Lake Victoria FDP Intend to establish collaborations with SERA on (a) verification of tropical cyclone forecasts and other high impact weather warnings (b) Lake Victoria FDP

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