1. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Could the UK run on 100% renewable energy? 31st July 2006 Jackie Carpenter BSc CEng MIMechE FRSA

2. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Energy is lovely isn’t it? Energy makes our lives easy. It lights our dark nights. It reduces our toil. It allows us travel to far-flung places.

3. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 But... There are energy problems. There is a crisis looming!

4. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Fossil oil is going to run out We have used nearly half the oil that was formed underground millions of years ago The second half will be a declining supply The second half will be more costly

5. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Global Warming is a major threat As the oil supply declines, perhaps this will solve our Climate Change problems? But what if we abandon Kyoto, because we feel compelled to turn to coal when faced with the threat of energy shortages?

6. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Food The energy crisis is not just about whether the lights go out or whether the price of petrol goes up. Our food supply depends on energy - for fertilisers, transport, processing, packaging. Will we have a secure food supply in the future?

7. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 We have a problem. We need a positive vision. "Where there is no vision, the people perish." Proverbs 29:18 We need a Vision

8. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 We need a vision that gives us an early, immediate way forward, so we can use our current wealth and enthusiasm wisely. It must be long-term too, but not only long-term! “In the long-term, we are all dead.” Keynes

9. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 We must move SOON from the all-too-human behaviour of denial, as we daily hide our heads in the sand. Winston Churchill back in the 1930s had this to say about the government when it didn't believe a threat was real. As the Chamberlain Cabinet dithered about Hitler, Churchill warned: "They go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent." And he concluded: "The era of procrastination, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences."

10. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 The aims of this workshop are: 1. To think about the two huge energy issues ahead of us. 2. To develop a simple model to show that a sustainable food and energy future is possible for the UK. 3. For YOU to start to develop your own vision

11. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 MY MODEL FOR THIS WORKSHOP My model is very simple - it is a game! We are going to leave out everything about costs, storage, conversion and distribution. We are NOT going to consider how to get to the future. We are simply going to aim for a positive vision of the future.

12. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 In the game we identify our energy needs. Then we find out how much energy we can collect - allowing for the fact that food crops will take priority over energy. We use a “barrel of oil” for our unit. Finally we try to balance our needs with our resources.

13. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006

14. MATHS

15. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Hectare

16. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Population density The UK has 24.4 million ha, or 244,000 square kilometres. The population density is 2.45 people per ha or 0.4 ha for each person. This is dense! There are 10 billion ha of fertile land on the planet for 6 billion people, which is 1.7 ha per person.

17. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Barrel of Oil A barrel of oil contains 160 litres. Each litre is the equivalent of 10 kWh of energy. If you burn one litre it is like having a one-bar electric fire on for 10 hours. A barrel contains 1,600 kWh (These figures are approximate. They allow you to form a mental picture of quanities of energy. I hope the oil is plant oil which is renewable and not mineral oil.)

18. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Barrel of Oil This “barrel” holds 160 litres. A cubic metre holds about 6 barrels.

19. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Barrel of Oil - filling up your car You fill your car with 30 litres per week. You use 52 x 30 = 1,560 litres per year = 10 barrels approx. Your car does about 10 miles per litre. Therefore you can drive about 16,000 miles per year on ten barrels of oil.

20. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Food for one person A person needs to eat 2000 (kilo) calories per day on average. 1 kWh = 860 kcals, therefore a person needs 2.3 kWh per day. In a year a person needs 2.3 x 365 = 839 kWh which is just over half a barrel of oil. That’s about 1.5 litres of oil per week. (These numbers are for the energy that goes into you, not the amount that was needed to produce the food.)

21. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Energy from a wind turbine A small wind turbine of 1 kW turning for 8760 hours (one year) would collect 8760 kWh = 5.5 barrels of oil. But it only collects 30 - 40 % of its theoretical maximum which means it collects the equivalent of about 2 barrels of oil per year. A large 1 MW turbine collects the equivalent of about 2,000 barrels of oil per year.

22. Jackie Carpenter 31st July 2006 Now let’s work on the spreadsheet!