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Tools and Approaches for Modeling Human Exposures to Multiple Pollutants Sastry S. Isukapalli, Panos G. Georgopoulos, Paul J. Lioy and the CCL/ORC Team.

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Presentation on theme: "Tools and Approaches for Modeling Human Exposures to Multiple Pollutants Sastry S. Isukapalli, Panos G. Georgopoulos, Paul J. Lioy and the CCL/ORC Team."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tools and Approaches for Modeling Human Exposures to Multiple Pollutants Sastry S. Isukapalli, Panos G. Georgopoulos, Paul J. Lioy and the CCL/ORC Team presented at the Clean Air Council Meeting, April 13, 2011 Computational Chemodynamics Laboratory Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute (EOHSI) 170 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854 1

2 ORC/CCL employs a One-Atmosphere approach to account for physical/chemical transformations (e.g. involving. OH) over multiple spatial/temporal scales that couple the dynamics of multiple gaseous and particulate air pollutants PM (PM2.5, PM10, PMC, UPs, NPs, bioaerosols) VOC + OH Organic PM Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM) NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification, Eutrophication). OH Air Toxics ( SOx [or NOx] + NH 3 + OH (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 [or NH 4 NO 3 ] NOx + VOC + OH + hv O 3 SO 2 + OH H 2 SO 4 NO 2 + OH HNO 3 OM, PAH, Hg (II), etc.) 2

3 Ambient air quality has been gradually but steadily improving in NJ: Overall trend for all criteria air pollutants in NJ, 1965-2009 Percentage of ambient criteria pollutant levels above or below the corresponding National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) 3

4 Ambient air quality has been (a) Monitored concentrations of benzene (1990-2007) gradually but steadily improving in NJ: Monitored concentrations of (a) benzene (1990-2007) and (b) formaldehyde (1996- 2007) in NJ... and this is taking place in spite of the increase in factors that could result in higher emission levels, such as vehicle miles traveled per person in NJ (b) Monitored concentrations of formaldehyde (1996-2007) NJDEP, 2009. New Jerseys Environment Trends Report - Vehicle Miles Traveled. NJDEP, Office of Science. Trenton, NJ. 4

5 Often the most significant exposures to airborne contaminants take place in confined (residential and public) microenvironments From: Georgopoulos, et al. (2009). Environmental Manager(October): 26-35 For most people the majority of exposures to airborne contaminants takes place through contact and inhalation of chemicals in indoor (residential or occupational) microenvironments. The air in these microenvironments contains a complex mixture of contaminants including those entrained from outdoor (ambient) air, those emitted indoors, and those formed via chemical transformations in indoor air (e.g. ultrafine particles formed from the interaction of entrained ozone with emissions from household air fresheners and solvents). 5

6 Often the most significant exposures to airborne contaminants take place in confined (residential and public) microenvironments Airborne indoor pollutants include secondary contaminants formed through the interaction of ambient air constituents and indoor emissions (from: Fan, et al. (2008) Environ Sci Technol 37: 1811-1821) From: Georgopoulos, et al. (2009). Environmental Manager(October): 26-35 For most people the majority of exposures to airborne contaminants takes place through contact and inhalation of chemicals in indoor (residential or occupational) microenvironments. The air in these microenvironments contains a complex mixture of contaminants including those entrained from outdoor (ambient) air, those emitted indoors, and those formed via chemical transformations in indoor air (e.g. ultrafine particles formed from the interaction of entrained ozone with emissions from household air fresheners and solvents). 6

7 Background, local outdoor, indoor, and personal concentration levels of three common air pollutants across diverse geographical areas Distributions of 48-hour integrated indoor, local outdoor, background outdoor and personal air concentrations from approx. 100 homes of non-smokers (and no attached garages), each in Elizabeth, NJ, Houston, TX, and Los Angeles, CA between 1999 and 2001. The three contaminants shown are: benzene (representing a non- reactive gas), formaldehyde (representing a highly reactive gas that is both emitted and formed through atmospheric photochemistry) and PM2.5 From: Georgopoulos, et al. (2009). Environmental Manager (October): 26-35 7

8 Understanding health (and ecological) effects and developing rational/optimal control strategies is complicated by the fact that air pollution is a multiscale problem in terms of both the environmental and the biological processes involved From: Georgopoulos, et al. (2009). Environmental Manager(October): 26-35 8

9 Steps in MENTOR-1A for assessing inhalation exposures and doses to co-occurring air pollutants MENTOR1A: Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies (MENTOR) using a "One Atmosphere" (1A) setting 9

10 Spatiotemporal patterns of surface formaldehyde (top) and benzene (bottom) concentrations predicted by CMAQ (at 12 km resolution) for January and July of 2001 10

11 Benzene spatial distributions (annual and seasonal) and sample hourly time series predicted by CMAQ (at 4 km resolution) for 2001 11

12 Formaldehyde spatial distributions (annual and seasonal) and sample hourly time series predicted by CMAQ (at 4 km resolution) for 2001 12

13 MENTOR-1A estimates of the 90 th percentile of annual/seasonal averages of hourly local (census tract) ambient benzene concentrations (ppb) for 2001 0-0.25 0.25-0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2-3 Winter Spring Summer Fall 13

14 MENTOR-1A estimates of the 90 th percentile of annual/seasonal averages of hourly local (census tract) personal exposure benzene concentrations due to outdoor air for 2001 Annual WinterSpring Summer Fall 14

15 MENTOR-1A estimates of the 90 th percentile of annual/seasonal averages of daily personal benzene intake (dose) ( μ g) due to outdoor air for 2001 Annual WinterSpring Summer Fall

16 MENTOR-1A estimates of the 90 th percentile of annual/seasonal averages of daily personal formaldehyde intake (dose) ( μ g) due to outdoor air for 2001 Annual Winter Spring SummerFall 16

17 Comparison of benzene doses with/without commuting and indoor sources cigarettes, garage emissions, and wood parquet (outdoor contribution) (indoor contribution) No indoor sources, and no garages Indoor sources and garages Note: Impact of garage emissions is modeled through empirical indoor/outdoor relationship distributions. 17

18 Interactions among contaminants is not limited to the environmental processes. They interact (often indirectly) within the body through induction/inhibition of metabolic enzymes. TCE Toluene Estimates of steady state blood concentrations taking into account only binary interactions (all chemicals at 50 ppm inhalation exposures) 18

19 Additional Applications of the Multipollutant Paradigm: Modeling effects of climatic change on biogenic aeroallergens in a multipollutant framework Vegetation database in the Biogenic Emissions and Landuse Database (BELD3) Modeled concentrations using CMAQ-pollen: snapshot at 4 pm on April 16, 2002 2041-2070 minus 1971-2000, Mar Apr May Representative future meteorology: Seasonal average change in temperature and precipitation estimated by the CCSM driving AOGCM and MM5I 2041-2070 minus 1971-2000, Mar Apr May [Source: NARCCAP] CCSM: Community Climate System Model AOCGM: Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Model MM5I: MM5 - PSU/NCAR mesoscale model NARCCAP: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/) 19

20 A multipollutant risk paradigm for estimating exposures and risks in the aircraft cabin environmentusing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) CFD model CFD mesh Experimental facility Kansas State University Experiments vs CFD 20

21 Ozone levels and reaction by-products in aircraft cabins C2 in-flight ozone concentration westbound trans-continental Q1 2009, B 757 - 200, No ozone converter 120 Sampling duration: 5.0 h Max 1-minute ozone (ppb): 103 Occupants Skin oil (i.e., squalene, oleic acid, unsaturated sterols), isoprene, nitric oxide (NO), Carpet & 4-PCH, 4-VCH, unsaturated fatty acids backing Max 1-hour ozone (ppb): 84 100 Sample avg. concentration (ppb): 54 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 3 Eastbound Westbound 4 5 6 Seats Skin oil, fabric Soiled air Unsaturated organics associated with captured filters particles Saturated aldehydes produced by ozone reactions formaldehyde acetaldehyde sum C4-C8 nonanal decanal 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 Hours after take-off Transatlantic flight ozone concentrations B 747 - January 2009 with ozone converter Westbound Eastbound 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hours after take-off 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Weschler et al., ES&T 2007 Data and slides provided by C. Weshler and C. Weisel 21

22 OTC States and modeling domain NOx Emissions (tons/yr) EGU Point, 1,818,914 NonEGU Point, 1,818,914 Mobile, 5,041,231 Biogenic, 114,670 Area, 1,894,211 Nonroad, 2,892,301 VOC emissions (tons/yr) Mobile, 1,939,410 Nonroad, 2,259,879 Area, 5,501,846 Point, 1,151,217 Biogenic, 23,263,840 22

23 Impact of uncertainties in biogenic emissions on predicted ozone and PM2.5 levels: effect on development of control strategies MEGANBEIS MEGAN - BEIS Relative Reduction Factors (RRF) for Ozone CMAQ simulations driven with outputs from MEGAN and BEIS emissions modeling systems Control scenario with 40% across the board anthropogenic NOx reductions for year 2012 Impact on ozone (approximately 5%) and PM 2.5 levels (1-2%) Indirect impact on inorganic PM 2.5 RRF difference (MEGAN - BEIS) for PM 2.5 OM (left) and sulfate PM (right) 23

24 Concluding Comments - A range of modeling and analysis tools have been developed at CCL/ORC and are being applied to inhalation (and total) exposures involving PM, air toxics, bioaerosols, nanoparticles, and multimedia contaminants (pesticides, solvents, heavy metals, etc.) in the ambient and in confined environments and microenvironments Multiple existing modeling tools have been applied and tested (MM5, RAMS, HYPACT, HYSPLIT, M3/CMAQ, CAMx, ASPEN, AERMOD, HPAC, FLUENT, CFX; etc.) Databases have been (or are being) assembled and restructured so as to facilitate future analyses (statistical and GIS) A comprehensive and extensible new modeling framework (MENTOR) has been designed and implemented collaboratively with USEPA and is being applied to various situations of direct relevance to NJ and the region - The One Atmosphere is evolving into the One Environment model; Person Oriented Modeling is central in this approach These concepts are slowly being fused into EPA regulatory tools and practices ORC aims to keep working closely with NJDEP and other regional organizations to support current/future use of best science in regulatory practices 24

25 Acknowledgments: Current research projects relevant to multipollutant exposure and risk modeling by the CCL/ORC group NJ DEP - Base funding for the Ozone Research Center (ORC) at EOHSI NJ DHSS - HIPPOCRATES - Mobile Access NIH - Center for Environmental Exposure and Disease (CEED) at EOHSI - National Childrens Study (NCS) - Respiratory Effects of Silver and Carbon Nanomaterials (RESAC) USEPA - Base support for the Center for Exposure and Risk Modeling (CERM) and for the Environmental Bioinformatics and Computational Toxicology Center (ebCTC) - Risk Assessment for Manufactured Nanoparticles Used in Consumer Products (RAMNUC) - Climatic Change and Allergic Airway Disease (CCAAD) USDOD - University Center for Disaster Preparedness and Emergency (UCDPER) FAA - Development of Risk Paradigm for Pesticides and Ozone/Ozone By-Products 25

26 Acknowledgements The CCL Team - Panos G. Georgopoulos – Sastry Isukapalli – Chris Brinkerhoff – Sagnik Mazumdar - Jocelyn Alexander – Steve Royce – Kristin Borbely – Teresa Boutillette - Linda Everett – Zhong-Yuan "Wheat" Mi – Christos Efstathiou * – Dwaipayan Mukherjee – Alan Sasso * – Pamela Shade – Spyros Stamatelos * - Xiaogang Tang – Yong Zhang – Peter Koutsoupias *PhD awarded 2009-10 The OTC Team NJDEP Personnel - Shan He - Linda Bonanno - Chris Salmi - Charles Pietarinen - Sharon Davis - Ray Papalski - Bill OSullivan - Tonalee Key - and many others…. EOHSI/Rutgers Collaborators - Clifford Weisel - Tina Fan - Rob Laumbach - Charles Weschler - Leonard Bielory - Alan Robock - and many others…. NYSDEC Collaborators - Christian Hogrefe - Gopal Sistla - Eric Zalewsky 26


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