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WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Solar Topics Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA my web site is now at

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Presentation on theme: "WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Solar Topics Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA my web site is now at"— Presentation transcript:

1 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Solar Topics Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA my web site is now at

2 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA WWROF Webinars Great way to learn about other aspects of Amateur Radio Great way to learn about other aspects of Amateur Radio Recent ones Recent ones The First Top Band DX Contest – the 1921 Transatlantic Test (by W3LPL)The First Top Band DX Contest – the 1921 Transatlantic Test (by W3LPL) Overview of Rule Changes for CQ WPX 2013 (by K5ZD)Overview of Rule Changes for CQ WPX 2013 (by K5ZD) CTU and Dayton Contest Activities (by K3LR)CTU and Dayton Contest Activities (by K3LR) Upcoming Upcoming April 26: What Ive Learned in Two Decades of Terrain Assessment (by N6BV)April 26: What Ive Learned in Two Decades of Terrain Assessment (by N6BV) Dont forget to support WWROF Dont forget to support WWROF

3 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA What Well Cover Cycle 24 update Cycle 24 update Butterfly diagrams Butterfly diagrams Magnetograms Magnetograms Old sunspot data Old sunspot data Missed an early cycle? Missed an early cycle? Grand solar minimums Grand solar minimums Max vs previous min Max vs previous min Our Cycle 24 prediction Our Cycle 24 prediction Two Cycle 24 predictions All the Cycle 24 predictions Hemisphere asymmetry Cycle 24 – two peaks? SSN vs SF vs EUV Are Sunspots Disappearing? Disturbances from the Sun References Mostly solar topics, with a tiny bit of propagation when relevant

4 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Cycle 24 Update Cycle 24 appears to have had a peak in early 2012

5 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Butterfly Diagrams Sunspots in a new cycle emerge at higher solar latitudes Sunspots at the end of a cycle are near the solar equator note asymmetry Hathaway image

6 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Magnetograms Sunspot region has magnetic field going out and coming back in Sunspot region has magnetic field going out and coming back in Measure magnetic field by Zeeman splitting Measure magnetic field by Zeeman splitting By convention, black is in and white is out By convention, black is in and white is out Magnetic fields are opposite from one cycle to the next Magnetic fields are opposite from one cycle to the next Magnetic fields are opposite in the hemispheres Magnetic fields are opposite in the hemispheres solar equator first sunspot region of Cycle 24 NASA photo old sunspot region from Cycle 23 Butterfly diagrams and magnetograms allow solar scientists to determine to which cycle (old or new) a sunspot region belongs

7 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA A Cycle Is Really 22 Years Cycle 21 max Hoeksema, Sun, and Hayash image Cycle 22 maxCycle 23 max

8 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Cycle 24 - Sunspots Sunspot data exhibits the same trends as the 10.7 cm solar flux data

9 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Old Sunspot Data Counting sunspots is subjective Counting sunspots is subjective Human interpretation involvedHuman interpretation involved Wolf , Wolfer , Brunner , Waldmeier Wolf , Wolfer , Brunner , Waldmeier Capability of telescope and cloud coverCapability of telescope and cloud cover Wolfs equation: R Z = k (10G + S) Wolfs equation: R Z = k (10G + S) k is variable to bring different observers in line, G is number of groups, S is number of individual spotsk is variable to bring different observers in line, G is number of groups, S is number of individual spots Hoyt and Shatten asked the simple question How good is the old data? Hoyt and Shatten asked the simple question How good is the old data?

10 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Group Sunspot Number Realizing that counting individual sunspots (S) was likely the biggest challenge, they devised the Group Sunspot Number Realizing that counting individual sunspots (S) was likely the biggest challenge, they devised the Group Sunspot Number R G = k (12G) The factor 12 scales R G to R Z The factor 12 scales R G to R Z If you divide R G by R Z you should get 1.0 If you divide R G by R Z you should get 1.0 Thats what they did, and heres what it looks like Thats what they did, and heres what it looks like

11 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA R G / R Z Uncorrected R G / R Z less than 1.0 early on Two discontinuities – around 1946 and 1885 It looks like weve lived thru the highest solar activity in history Svalgaard & Cliver image

12 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Data Under Review On-going Workshops On-going Workshops Sponsored by National Solar Observatory, the Royal Observatory of Belgium, and the Air Force Research LaboratorySponsored by National Solar Observatory, the Royal Observatory of Belgium, and the Air Force Research Laboratory Ultimate goal is to review and agree on the true sunspot number Ultimate goal is to review and agree on the true sunspot number Targeted to happen at a Fall 2013 Workshop in EuropeTargeted to happen at a Fall 2013 Workshop in Europe

13 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA R G / R Z Corrected Ratio of R G to R Z varies about 1.0 (cant do much about the early scatter) Important implication: weve NOT lived thru the highest solar activity Svalgaard & Cliver image

14 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Did We Miss An Early Cycle? Cycle 4 was extremely long Cycle 4 was extremely long 1784 – – years 14 years How could we have missed a cycle – the data looks very good Alvestad image

15 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Problem: Gaps In The Data Much of the Cycle 4 data was assumed Much of the Cycle 4 data was assumed What really happened? What really happened? Hathaway image Dalton Min xxx Min

16 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Reconstructed Butterfly Diagram Suggests Cycle 4 may have really been only 10 years long Spots from a new cycle may have appeared in 1795/1796 Cycle 4 start density of sunspots Cycle 5 start

17 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Auroral Activity Indicates an increase in auroral activity around 1796 Cycle 4 start Cycle 5 start

18 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Missed Cycle - Conclusion We may have missed an early cycle We may have missed an early cycle It was a small one prior to the Dalton Minimum It was a small one prior to the Dalton Minimum Doesnt appear to be any discussion to further review and correct this Doesnt appear to be any discussion to further review and correct this It would be difficult to re-number the cycles after Cycle 4It would be difficult to re-number the cycles after Cycle 4 If anything is done, best to call it Cycle 4aIf anything is done, best to call it Cycle 4a

19 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Grand Solar Minimums No reliable sunspot data from long ago No reliable sunspot data from long ago Use proxies for solar activity Use proxies for solar activity Carbon-14 in tree ringsCarbon-14 in tree rings High carbon-14 means low solar activity High carbon-14 means low solar activity Low carbon-14 means high solar activity Low carbon-14 means high solar activity Beryllium-10 in ice coresBeryllium-10 in ice cores Identical trends to carbon-14 Identical trends to carbon-14 Gives us a broad view of solar activity Gives us a broad view of solar activity

20 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Inferred Grand Minimums Well likely go through another Grand Minimum – questions are when? and what magnitude? xxx

21 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Duration of Solar Minimum Cyclic in nature – started with short duration solar mins recent solar min (56 months)

22 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Maximum of Solar Cycle Also cyclic in nature – started with large solar cycles

23 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Max and Duration of Previous Min They are out of phase

24 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA The Correlation Suggests... Our prediction for Cycle 24 is a smoothed sunspot number of ~ 80 Translates to a smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux of ~ 130

25 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Official Prediction - ISES ISES has not changed their prediction since mid 2009 ISES has not changed their prediction since mid 2009 Prior to mid 2009, they carried two predictions Prior to mid 2009, they carried two predictions One high, one lowOne high, one low

26 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Official Prediction - MSFC MSFC continues to revise its prediction based on actual results

27 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA A Comment About Predictions Over 60 predictions for Cycle 24 Over 60 predictions for Cycle 24 From 40 to 180 (smoothed sunspot number) From 40 to 180 (smoothed sunspot number) Several are going to be right Several are going to be right Many more will be wrong Many more will be wrong We still dont understand the process in the Sun that causes solar cycles We still dont understand the process in the Sun that causes solar cycles

28 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Hemisphere Asymmetry Sunspot emergence not symmetrical Sunspot emergence not symmetrical The northern hemisphere has dominated Cycle 24 The northern hemisphere has dominated Cycle 24 If the southern hemisphere gets going.... Svalgaard & Kamide image

29 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Cycle 24 – Two Peaks? Dr. Presnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center believes Cycle 24 will have two peaks Dr. Presnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center believes Cycle 24 will have two peaks Second peak from southern hemisphere Second peak from southern hemisphere Cites Cycle 14 as similar to Cycle 24 Cites Cycle 14 as similar to Cycle 24 video -

30 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Recent Two-Peaked Cycles Cycles 19, 20, and 21 didnt have a discernible second peak Cycles 22 and 23 had two peaks Reminder – official peak is in terms of a smoothed solar index

31 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Early Two-Peaked Cycles Would be nice if Cycle 24 did something like Cycle 23 or 12 Cycle 5Cycle 9 Cycle 11Cycle 12 Alvestad images

32 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA SSN vs 10.7 cm SF vs EUV Reminder – sunspots and 10.7 cm solar flux are proxies for true ionizing radiation Reminder – sunspots and 10.7 cm solar flux are proxies for true ionizing radiation True ionizing radiation is at wavelengths from roughly 0.1 – 100 nanometers True ionizing radiation is at wavelengths from roughly 0.1 – 100 nanometers 0.1 – 1 nm and nm for the D region0.1 – 1 nm and nm for the D region 1 – 10 nm for the E region1 – 10 nm for the E region 10 – 100 nm for the F2 region10 – 100 nm for the F2 region Important wavelength for F2 region ionization is around 30 nm Important wavelength for F2 region ionization is around 30 nm Contributes to about 2/3 of the electron densityContributes to about 2/3 of the electron density

33 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Daily Values of nm correlation sunspots vs EUV cm sf vs EUV.7492 Daily 10.7 cm solar flux correlates better to daily EUV But dont throw out sunspots

34 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Variation of the Ionosphere Neither EUV, 10.7 cm solar flux nor sunspots correlate well to the day-to-day variation of the ionosphere F2 region ionization depends on solar radiation, geomagnetic field activity, and events in lower atmosphere coupling up to ionosphere

35 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Another Interesting Correlation Up to the first peak of Cycle 23, smoothed sunspot number and smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux were extremely well correlated

36 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA But After the Peak... We now see less sunspots for a given 10.7 cm solar flux

37 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Are Sunspots Disappearing? July 2009 paper by W. Livingston and M. Penn July 2009 paper by W. Livingston and M. Penn Sunspots are visible when their magnetic field strength is > 1500 gauss Sunspots are visible when their magnetic field strength is > 1500 gauss Extrapolating the linear trend line says no sunspots will be visible around the end of the decade Extrapolating the linear trend line says no sunspots will be visible around the end of the decade Latest data presented by Dr. Leif Svalgaard (thru early 2013) shows the decreasing trend is continuing Latest data presented by Dr. Leif Svalgaard (thru early 2013) shows the decreasing trend is continuing most recent data Livingston & Penn image

38 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Whats Happening to EUV? EUV is holding up in spite of sunspots disappearing Other measurements (next slide) confirm this EUV data from

39 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Other Measurements Why 6m was so good around Nov 2001 This data suggests that sunspots are the only parameter that is disappearing Lukianova & Mursula images

40 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Another Minimum A grand solar minimum is a period when sunspots disappear But since it appears that EUV may still be there, maybe a grand solar minimum will not be as bad as we think This is radical thinking Archibald image Only answer is to wait and see what happens to EUV with respect to the disappearing sunspots

41 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Disturbances from the Sun visit to learn more about G, S, and Rhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

42 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Mitigation for Disturbances No guarantees here – just suggestions

43 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA References The Solar Cycle, David H. Hathaway, NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, March 2010 The Solar Cycle, David H. Hathaway, NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, March 2010 A History of Solar Activity over Millennia, Ilya G. Usokin, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Finland, October 2008 A History of Solar Activity over Millennia, Ilya G. Usokin, Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Finland, October 2008 Solar Cycle Characteristics Examined in Separate Hemispheres: Phase, Gnevyshev Gap, and Length of Minimum, A. A. Norton and J. C. Gallagher, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia, January 2010 Solar Cycle Characteristics Examined in Separate Hemispheres: Phase, Gnevyshev Gap, and Length of Minimum, A. A. Norton and J. C. Gallagher, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia, January Temporal Changes in Sunspot Umbral Magnetic Fields and Temperatures, M. J. Penn, W. Livingston, National Solar Observatory, The Astrophysical Journal, 649, L45- L48, September 2006 Temporal Changes in Sunspot Umbral Magnetic Fields and Temperatures, M. J. Penn, W. Livingston, National Solar Observatory, The Astrophysical Journal, 649, L45- L48, September 2006

44 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA References – cont Another Maunder Minimum?, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, November 2012 Another Maunder Minimum?, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, November 2012 Reconciling Group and International Sunspot Numbers, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, Edward W. Cliver, Air Force Research Laboratory, September 2012 Reconciling Group and International Sunspot Numbers, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, Edward W. Cliver, Air Force Research Laboratory, September 2012 Disappearance of Visible Spots, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, September 2012 Disappearance of Visible Spots, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, September 2012 Solar Activity – Past, Present, and Future, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, October 2012 Solar Activity – Past, Present, and Future, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, October 2012 Symmetric Solar Polar Field Reversals, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford Univeristy, Yohsuke Kamide, Nagoya University, December 2012 Symmetric Solar Polar Field Reversals, Leif Svalgaard, Stanford Univeristy, Yohsuke Kamide, Nagoya University, December 2012 Changed relation between sunspot numbers, solar UV/EUV radiation and TSI during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, R. Lukianova, K. Mursula, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-terrestrial Physics, 73 (2011), pp Changed relation between sunspot numbers, solar UV/EUV radiation and TSI during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, R. Lukianova, K. Mursula, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-terrestrial Physics, 73 (2011), pp

45 WWROF Webinar April 16, 2013 K9LA Summary Cycle 24 has a good chance of having a second peak – will help prolong propagation on the higher bands Cycle 24 has a good chance of having a second peak – will help prolong propagation on the higher bands Right now the few Cycle 25 predictions are for another low solar cycle Right now the few Cycle 25 predictions are for another low solar cycle Well enter another grand solar minimum one of these days Well enter another grand solar minimum one of these days Dont know when or magnitudeDont know when or magnitude But it may not result in the demise of the ionosphereBut it may not result in the demise of the ionosphere Best to use the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux in your propagation predictions Best to use the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux in your propagation predictions We covered a lot of material – the following are what I consider important


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