Presentation on theme: "By Innovative Research Job Brüggen Eurocontrol CARE Innovation workshop Brussels 14 & 15 March 2001."— Presentation transcript:
by Innovative Research Job Brüggen Eurocontrol CARE Innovation workshop Brussels 14 & 15 March 2001
CARE Innovative workshop 2 Examples of innovative research
CARE Innovative workshop 3 Archimedes 287BC - 212BC =3.1415926535... The Palimsest
CARE Innovative workshop 4 Leonardo da Vinci 1452 - 1519 Multi-faceted: –artist –inventor –scientist
CARE Innovative workshop 5 Galileo 1564 - 1642 While in a cathedral in Pisa, he noticed that a chandelier was swinging with the same period as timed by his pulse, regardless of its amplitude.
CARE Innovative workshop 6 Sir Isaac Newton, 1642 - 1727 1687: Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica Laws of inertia, action and reaction, and acceleration proportional to force. New scientific philosophy which came to replace Cartesianism. Applications of his dynamics, including an explanation for tides and a theory of lunar motion.
CARE Innovative workshop 7 Thomas Alva Edison 1847 - 1931 Best known for his inventions of electric light and the phonograph Famous quotes: Genius is hard work, stick-to-itiveness, and common sense. Genius is one percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration Disasters are learning opportunities
CARE Innovative workshop 8 Edison claimed 1093 patents –1868: electrographic vote recorder –1869: printing telegraph –1872: galvanic batteries –1878: speaking telephones –1878: electric light –1880: incandescent electric lamp –1880: magneto or dynamic electric machine –1881: electric motor –1881: Locomotive for Electric Railways –1882: turn-table for electric railways –1886: railway signaling –1887: phonograph –1891: Kinetographic Camera –1892: Automobiles –1900: Apparatus for Breaking Rock –1905: Pocket-Filling Machine –1912: Alternating-Current-Rectifying System –1919: Projectiles –1927: Extraction of Rubber from Plants
CARE Innovative workshop 9 A full scale inventor 1867: Edison moves to Menlo Park, New Jersey, and establishes his first full- scale industrial research laboratory, combining electrical and chemical laboratories with an experimental machine shop
CARE Innovative workshop 10 Orville and Wilbur Wright Powered flight made possible in 1903
CARE Innovative workshop 11 Albert Einstein 1879 - 1955 E = mc 2 Innovation is not the product of logical thought, even though the final product is tied to a logical structure
CARE Innovative workshop 12 Sir Alexander Fleming 1881 - 1955 His classical case of discovery in 1928 of penicillin, the miracle drug Penicillin became extremely useful by the work of Florey and Chain in 1940 for the mass production of penicillin, used in World War II.
CARE Innovative workshop 13 Brattain, Bardeen & Schockley 1947: invention of the bi-polar transistor (TRANSfer resISTOR)
CARE Innovative workshop 14 Innovation involves hard labor They combined ingredients which in many instances were already available. This meant hard work and studying what had been done by others. No trial and error but theme and variation Their inventions were not a God-given flash of insight on a lazy afternoon. It was the result of years of study and preparations that made them see the apparently obvious. Perseverance and stamina were key ingredients
CARE Innovative workshop 15 Innovation lives by lines of succession Da Vinci pointed the way towards the principles of a helicopter, but Von Baumhauer discovered how to successfully control the helicopter (1930). Fleming discovered penicillin in 1928, but Florey and Chain (1940) knew how to produce it on an industrial basis. Einstein build on theorems of Newton, and he in turn on Archimedes
CARE Innovative workshop 16 Sometimes (but not always!) adverse circumstances to innovation Thick and complete proposals Strict planning progress reports high expectations budget cuts
CARE Innovative workshop 17 The innovation process itself is relatively simple, yet needs to be turned ON Good thinking, hard work and perseverance Urgent societal need, or other crisis (e.g. war) Available technology Knowledge from other technology fields Good analysis of problem delays Environment Money
CARE Innovative workshop 18 Flights (thousands) Problem Statement: Traffic Growth vs Forecast
CARE Innovative workshop 19 Air Traffic Delays Source: PRR3
CARE Innovative workshop 20 The safety wall (a.k.a the capacity wall) Source: PRR3
CARE Innovative workshop 21 Safety is already becoming a problem Source: PRR3
CARE Innovative workshop 22 We know WHAT caused the delay Source: PRR3
CARE Innovative workshop 23 2000 We know WHERE the delay was
CARE Innovative workshop 24 What is being done to cope? Eurocontrol ATM 2000+ strategy on R&D 7.9. Research and Development ATM Research and Development (R&D) must focus its activities on supporting the Strategy. s major areas of development concerning new procedures and new technologies, as well as the need to validate the overall system and concept and their individual components. ATM R&D should place greater emphasis on applications that improve ATM operations, rather than on developing CNS technologies. ATM R&D and validation will concentrate on supporting the Strategy measures with the primary focus on improving ATM services rather than new CNS systems. ATM R&D related activities, including their funding, should be co-ordinated and directed at European level by an R&D Strategy which supports the Strategy within the framework of the revised Convention, and takes into account the accession of the European Community to the Eurocontrol Convention. Arrangements should be put in place for co-operation with European and international R&D activities. The R&D Strategy should also encompass: Clear identification of the technical and human factor issues and the efforts and time needed to solve them; Efficient use of resources through collaborative projects; Effective exchange of appropriate R&D information; Involvement of Air Navigation Service providers, Manufacturing Industry, Airports and/or Airspace Users from an early stage; Validation and quantification of related economic benefits to facilitate economic analysis.
CARE Innovative workshop 25 What is being done to cope? EU: Vision 2020: the research agenda Innovative ATM operational concepts Advanced, intelligent and integrated ATM ground, airborne and space systems Rotorcraft integration in ATM systems High density traffic systems capability in all weather conditions Airport capacity and advanced management Increased use of airspace capacity
CARE Innovative workshop 26 Source: Airbus Forecasted World Air Travel Growth
CARE Innovative workshop 27 Source: Eurocontrol 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 19751980198519901995200020052010 Actual Traffic Traffic Forecast (High) Traffic Forecast (Medium) Traffic Forecast (Low) Movements (millions) European Air Traffic Development (Million IFR Flights per year)
CARE Innovative workshop 29 Projections for tomorrow Civil traffic growth is consistently predicted at about 5% per year. Total number of airplanes globally will nearly double the next twenty years. The developed hub and spoke system will remain in place and be further developed. Larger aircraft will be deployed along a larger number of routes. Aircraft will generally fly longer stretches
CARE Innovative workshop 30 What is being done to cope? Plans on short and medium term RVSM BRNAV Civil Military airspace integration Link 2000 Enhanced surveillance ATC tools
CARE Innovative workshop 31 Advanced ATM tools in TMA
CARE Innovative workshop 32 Do we think this is enough? In 2015, will air traffic be handled –safely –economically –efficiently? Are the ingredients we now have, sufficient? Is the new ATM system for 2015 based on what we can see now?
CARE Innovative workshop 33 Are we going to achieve these goals? (Eurocontrol ATM targets) Source: Eatchip Targets
CARE Innovative workshop 34 Consolidation of R&D? Start implementation? We seem to have a hard time implementing the R&D results today. The lead times for implementation are loooooong! Should we consolidate our research efforts and build upon what we have now? Start implementation? Work close with industry? Agree on standards? A lot of the R&D work today has NOTHING to do with research, but is at best development. WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO AFTER 2015?
CARE Innovative workshop 35 Phases of Industrial Evolution Fluid to Transitional to Specific Product innovation Process innovation Slide copied from presentation by J-M Garot, EEC, november 2000 Innovation Consolidation
CARE Innovative workshop 36 The suggestion is that ATM is now into the specific phase Whilst aerospace may be in the specific phase, ATM certainly is not. Much of the product innovation has been exactly at the product level, but hardly at the operations level. Without some serious innovative work, delays will rocket and physically stop air transport growth in core ECAC area. ATM is not ready for consolidation yet: new ingredients must be inserted for it to cope with growth.
CARE Innovative workshop 37 consolidation Beside product technology OPERATIONS need to be innovated, TechnologyOperations innovation consolidation
CARE Innovative workshop 38 2000200520102015 RVSM One Airspace Civil/Military Link 2000 Enh. Surv. ATC tools Cost of Lack of Growth ADS-B ASAS Delegation of Separation Autonomous Aircraft Operations CertificationPre-operational TrialsR&D Operational Concept Functionalities Systems USA - EUR Business Case ? 600m 2.0 bn 4.0 bn Flt. Efficiency Delays User Charges Avionics The conceptual agenda Slide copied from presentation by P.Hogge, ATC Maastricht 2001
CARE Innovative workshop 39 How fertile are the grounds? Available technology –Secure and reliable datalink (high speed?) –Advanced FMS –Autonomous aircraft and 4D ATM concept(s) –Schedulers and Sequencers and ATC tools –High resolution displays –Powerful information and processing technology Good analysis of the problem Money Urgent societal needs IT MUST BE A DREAM PROBLEM TO WORK ON!
CARE Innovative workshop 40 To conclude Innovation is NOT hoping for the Eureka! whilst doing nothing: it is hard work that builds upon the innovations of others. In ATM, there is a consistent history for being too late. TODAYs problems are just barely tackled by R&D today The era 2010 - 2015 will be facing serious difficulties to cope with demand: A major effort is still to be undertaken. The era > 2015 is completely unexplored territory yet. We must innovate the operations rather than the products.
CARE Innovative workshop 41 To Work! Your picture here?