1. 1 New Skills for New Jobs in the Western Balkans Sarajevo 27-28 October 2011 Anastasia Fetsi, ETF

2. 2 Content The EU New Skills and Jobs Agenda The ETF project on skills matching and anticipation in the transition and developing countries : preliminary results and key messages Future ETF work in the field of matching and anticipation of skills

3. 3 The EU New skills and Jobs Agenda A comprehensive agenda addressing in parallel labour demand, labour supply and labour market regulation towards (full) employment Flexicurity Equipping people with the right skills for employment Improve quality of jobs Support job creation

4. 4 The EU New skills and Jobs Agenda Skills anticipation (macro forecasts –sectoral approaches – green skills) Improving matching mechanisms (PES, ESCO, sector skill councils, knowledge alliances, information sharing- Observatories) Providing the right mix of skills (key competences, access to CVT, attractiveness of IVET, national qualification frameworks based on learning outcomes)

5. The ETF project on matching and anticipation of skills in transition and developing countries Objectives i)to understand better how matching and anticipation takes place in the context of transition and developing countries ii)to assess methodological approaches and instruments for monitoring and anticipating skills requirements against the specific contexts of different countries, iii)to develop policy guidance information and materials (a tool kit, good practices, etc) for the needs of the countries to implement taylor made projects in partner countries Countries: Egypt, Croatia, Montenegro, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Serbia, Ukraine, Turkey

6. Preliminary findings 1.Probably the impact of skill miss match on unemployment is over-estimated Lack of job creation and insufficient aggregate demand for skills is also at play Calculation on measuring miss match in progress

7. 7 High unemployment

8. 8 Low employment Source: *LFS, 2009 ALBAHRMKXKMERSTREU-27 Employment rates53.449.456.643.325.148.850.444.364.6 Share of Employment in Agriculture44.119.71118.56.26.523.921.64.6

9. Preliminary findings 2. Still skill shortages or skill gaps do exist and can create impediment for future economic development.

11. EU Benchmarks EU 27 EU 2020 objectives ALMERSHRMKTR Early school leavers - (2010) % of 18-24 with at most lower secondary education and not in further education or training 14.110% 3915.5 (m) 9.2 (f) 10.73.9 (u) 15.543.1 Tertiary educational attainment - (2010) % of 30-34 who have successfully completed university or university-like education 33.640% 17.2 22.617.115.5 Lifelong learning - (2010) % of 25-64 participating in education and training 9.115% 2.0 3.22.5 % of pupils with low performance in the reading scale (Level 1 or below) - (2009) 19.6 (1) less than 15% 56.6 49.532.922.5 24.5 Sources Early school leavers - EU27, HR, MK, and TR: Eurostat; AL: LFS (received from the Country); RS: Eurostat, "Pocketbook on candidate and potential candidate countries", 2010; ME: UNDP, "National Human Development Report 2009" Tertiary educational attainment (30-34) - EU27, HR, MK, IS and TR: Eurostat; AL: LFS., 2009 Lifelong learning - EU27, HR, MK, IS and TR: Eurostat; AL: LFS (received from the Country) Pupils' performance in reading: OECD, "PISA 2009 Results": EU - "Progress towards the common european objectives in education and training - Indicators and benchmanrks 2010/2011", Commission of the European Communities. 11

12. Preliminary findings 3.All countries have some instruments to identify skill demand or skill miss match; the problem is that these instruments are not embedded in their decision making process for educational policy (or action); many of them are on an ad hoc basis; their results are not communicated and/or taken into account by educational actors

13. Key messages (i) 1.Anticipating skills demand is becoming a necessary tool for adjustment of education provision to emerging skill needs or potential needs 2.There is a multiplicity of instruments to identify the skill demand in the short, medium and long term (employer surveys, transition studies, sector skills analyses). There is a multiplicity of actors who need access to information in order to take the right decision (education policy makers, school directors, PES counsellors, parents and young people, unemployed) 3.The relevance of information for decision taking/ to different decision takers is important

14. Key messages (ii) 4.Transferring anticipation results into policies and practice should be the ultimate objective. Need for dissemination of results and taking action 5.Approaches developed in countries with vivid economic activity are not always relevant for countries with stagnating economies. In case of countries or regions with stagnating economies linking education policies to economic development plans 6.Together with surveys the communication of actors is of key importance at national, regional, local, sectoral level (EG education and business cooperation, local employment councils, national VET councils) 7.Qualification frameworks is a good instrument to bring actors together and match demand and supply of skills 8.Incentives to actors to act in the right way

15. ETF work in this field in the coming year Focus on assessment of specific tools and methods for decision taking in the transition and developing countries such as: – Macro-forecasts in transition countries – Sectoral approaches for skills anticipation and matching – Enterprise surveys as instrument for identification of skills – Labour market transitions (tracer studies & reverse tracer studies) – Roles and working methods of interlocutors such as PES in matching process – Regional development – local partnerships

16. ETF work in this field in the coming year Use existing information sources in the countries for analysis and discussion with national stakeholders To develop policy guidance information and materials (a tool kit, good practices, etc) for the needs of the PCs Specific country projects: Albania, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro,

17. The countries of the region have experimented with a lot of the instruments described above. We can learn a lot by examining what has worked and what not and why.

18. Exploring current and future demands (examples) Time horizon Levels short-termMid-termLong-term Micro-level (people, enterprises) Meso-level (sectors, regions, intermediary actors like schools, training providers, PES) Macro-level (economy, education system) Tracer studies, skill needs assessment at company level Sector specific skill needs analysis Employer surveys, vacancy monitor Formal, national or regional quantitative projections Strategic concept and definitions (3)

19. Transferring the findings into policies (examples) Time horizon Levels short-termMid-termLong-term Micro-level (people, enterprises) Meso-level (sectors, regions, intermediary actors like schools, training providers, PES) Macro-level (economy, education system) Placement and referral systems (PES) Personal development plans (PES) Workplace training (biz) Demand oriented training provision Active labour market policy National employment strategy, education strategy Strategic concept and definitions (3) Labour market training (unemployed and preventive), PES Career counselling and guidance VET reform NQF systems Sectoral and regional (local/spatial) policies and strategies

20. 20 Thank you European Training Foundation www.etf.europa.eu