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Western Balkans and Europe 2020 Does the Western Balkan need a new Growth Model? Peter Sanfey Lead Economist, EBRD Regional Coordination Meeting, Regional.

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Presentation on theme: "Western Balkans and Europe 2020 Does the Western Balkan need a new Growth Model? Peter Sanfey Lead Economist, EBRD Regional Coordination Meeting, Regional."— Presentation transcript:

1 Western Balkans and Europe 2020 Does the Western Balkan need a new Growth Model? Peter Sanfey Lead Economist, EBRD Regional Coordination Meeting, Regional Cooperation Council Brussels, March 31 2011

2 The growth model of the Transition Region (incl. the Western Balkans): Market-oriented reforms Trade integration Financial integration with the West Political integration (for EU or near-EU countries). Rapid catch up and growing prosperity But also important weaknesses and gaps

3 Is a new approach to development needed after the crisis? The EBRD answer in a nutshell No new growth model needed, but region must address its key weaknesses Need both stronger and safer growth New reform agenda Close sector-level reform gaps Develop local currency finance Strengthen export capacity Improve business environment

4 Weakness (1): Incomplete Reforms

5 Weakness (2): Financial Sector Fragility

6 Weakness (3): Unbalanced Growth

7 Exports Innovation Growth Firm level R&D Spending 1/3 Export activity significantly raises probability of R&D Non-exporter Exporter

8 Top priorities to improve export- friendliness

9 Weakness (4): persistent business environment problems BEEPS: Top three constraints in each country


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