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Western Balkans and Europe 2020

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Presentation on theme: "Western Balkans and Europe 2020"— Presentation transcript:

1 Western Balkans and Europe 2020
Does the Western Balkan need a new Growth Model? Peter Sanfey Lead Economist, EBRD Regional Coordination Meeting, Regional Cooperation Council Brussels, March

2 The “growth model” of the Transition Region (incl
The “growth model” of the Transition Region (incl. the Western Balkans): Market-oriented reforms Trade integration Financial integration with the West Political integration (for EU or near-EU countries). Rapid catch up and growing prosperity But also important weaknesses and gaps

3 Is a new approach to development needed after the crisis?
The EBRD answer in a nutshell No new “growth model” needed, but region must address its key weaknesses Need both stronger and safer growth New reform agenda Close sector-level reform gaps Develop local currency finance Strengthen export capacity Improve business environment

4 Weakness (1): Incomplete Reforms

5 Weakness (2): Financial Sector Fragility

6 Weakness (3): Unbalanced Growth

7 Exports ► Innovation ► Growth
Firm level R&D Spending Export activity significantly raises probability of R&D ≈1/3 Non-exporter Exporter

8 Top priorities to improve export-friendliness

9 Weakness (4): persistent business environment problems
BEEPS: Top three constraints in each country

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