Presentation on theme: "Increased Regional Integration and the Role of EU Accession: During and After the Crisis Visnja Samardzija, Ph.D Institute for International Relations."— Presentation transcript:
Increased Regional Integration and the Role of EU Accession: During and After the Crisis Visnja Samardzija, Ph.D Institute for International Relations – IMO, Zagreb email@example.com Western Balkans in 2020 Overcoming the Economic Crisis and Developing Competitive Economies Sarajevo, 24-24 February 2010
Key points of presentation Regional cooperation could contribute to economic recovery of SEE, through –strengthening regional trade –attracting FDI –human potential development –sharing experiences, policy development and coordination, reforms and EU accession …in context of EU integration
Priorities in SEE regional co-operation in economic recovery Regional cooperation could contribute to economic recovery New achitecture in SEE cooperation established (SEECP, RCC) –Regional ownership principle strengthed Impact on SEE political and economic developments Synergy of participation in numerous coordinated regional initiatives and networks Project oriented cooperation, generationg new values Economic, infrastructure, social, security dimension Participation of donors and EU institutions Linking the people!
Perception of ties between neighbours in SEE region Source: Analytical Report 2008, Gallup Balkan Monitor. Insights and Perceptions: Voices of the Balkans Relations are not strong enough!
Regional trade cooperation in SEE Exports are vital for growth and current account sustainability Growth of region should be export led CEFTA 2006 –CEFTA helped reducing impacts of the crisis –Alignment with trade related issues of the acquis –Still limited trade flows in SEE region, poor export performance (low-skill based, natural resource- intensive exports) –Exports well below potential and needs –EU integration also requires increased exports!
T Towards export-led growth in SEE… Strengthen regional trade through joint projects! Move towards skill-intensive exports Reducing market segmentation through (joint) policies –Elimination of barriers to trade in services, FDI friendly policies, coordination of sectoral policies, joint development of policies (industry, R&D?) Capacity building in strengthening policy design Specialisation through regional economic cooperation Promoting cooperation among customs administrations Achieving full benefits in implementing diagonal cummulation of RuO –Intra CEFTA diagonal cummulation scheme –Bilateral EU/SEE cummulation in force –Inclusion in Pan-Euro-Med diagonal cummulation necessary
Doing Business 2010: Rankings in the Area of Trade Source: www.doingbusiness.org
How to achieve stronger FDI inflow to SEE External environment has changed dramatically FDI decreased after stronger growth FDI stimulated investment but not directed towards export oriented projects, mostly related to privatisation process, greenfield marginal Structure and quality of investment is not stimulating rapid growth Geography matters for investors –investors target individual SEE countries, but not entire region as one market
Overview of FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe FDI inflow, EUR millionPer capita inflow, EUR Per capita stock, EUR 2005200620072008 Albania213259481682215935 Bosnia and Herzegovina49357215466901791400 Croatia14682765366729306614930 Macedonia773455064132011600 Montenegro393644100883213254864 Serbia12653516227218792561586 Southeastern Europe39098101948074253462200 European CIS169972862449121572402842000 EU NMS-10371434515249151448684394100 Total58049834941102711095333372700 Source: Source: wiiw Database on FDI incorporating national bank statistics
Number of greenfield FDI projects, 2004-2009 (concluded) Partner region/economyWorld as source South-East Europe200420052006200720082009 (Jan-Mar) Albania713116163 Bosnia and Herzegovina20261721248 Croatia39463932397 The FYR of Macedonia711259239 Montenegro--35151 Serbia5253437911215 EU3 4053 9354 7084 6255 1151 047 Selected EU new member states Bulgaria10914028515114633 Czech Republic14815017914814122 Hungary22120524121714731 Poland23927033734035343 Romania18026237336934841 Slovakia88118 998615 Slovenia231923 1 Source: World Investment Report 2009: Transnational Corporation, Agricultural Production and Development
Attracting FDI through regional co- operation Crisis might be opportunity for SEE –short-term actions combined with strategic measures Policy development for attracting FDI in SEE –Offering foreign investors opportunity to serve regional market (investing in one country - access to the region) –Reducing market segmentation, deeper integration - regional cooperation in services –Linking foreign and domestic investors at regional level –Reduction of barriers (services), pro-business initiatives, low tax regime, effective deregulation –Acceleration of structural reforms on labour / product markets, improving quality of public spending, increasing competitive capacity of SEE for attracting FDI during recovery period Regional investment strategy
Building knowledge based society in SEE Shift to more skill-intensive exports needed Increasing productivity and fostering knowledge based regional competitiveness through research, education and innovation (knowledge triange) Designing integrated research policies and strategies for SEE –from fragmented to integrated approach in the region… Modernising research capacity, focus on value-added services and innovation Increasing links between research and business –finding innovative ways to increase participation of private sector in policy formulation and funding of R&D; establish competitive regional centres of excellence Promoting human capital development Encouraging transfer of knowledge (networks) Visa free trade regime important!
Global Competitiveness Index - ranking SEE and CEE countries according to performance in education and innovation CountryOverall rankingHigher education and training ranking Innovation ranking 2007-082009-102007-082009-102007-082009-10 Albania1099610390131126 Bosnia and Herzegovina1061099886121131 Croatia577246565061 Macedonia, FYR9484757092 Montenegro8262795710456 Serbia919382767880 Bulgaria797666608891 Romania746454527670 Slovenia393724193029 Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010, and 2007-2008, World Economic Forum Note: Global Competitiveness Report 2007-2008 is based on survey and data of 131countries, while for 2009-2010, N=133.
Comparative ranking scores of EU and SEE countries according to selected Lisbon criteria, WEF (2006 and 2008) CountryFinal IndexSub indexes RankScoreInformation SocietyInnovation and R&D 20062008200620082006200820062008 Greece23 220.127.116.11.183.773.85 Croatia25243.934.103.69 3.323.41 Italy24254.174.054.063.833.733.76 Montenegro31263.143.962.943.272.803.15 Romania28273.593.843.213.703.173.30 Turkey26283.923.823.223.343.273.25 Poland27293.76 3.323.183.573.51 Bulgaria29303.313.683.093.572.923.04 Macedonia, FYR30353.283.532.793.172.512.78 Serbia31373.143.442.943.202.803.00 Albania-41-3.12-2.702.37 Bosnia and Herzegovina-44-3.12-2.832.43 EU27 average---4.73-4.534.18 EU15---5.07-4.864.62 Source: World Economic Forum. The Lisbon Review 2006. Measuring Europe's Progress in Reform. World Economic Forum. The Lisbon Review 2008. Measuring Europe's Progress in Reform. Note: WEF ranking 2006 (N = 31) included EU and SEE countries only, while the WEF ranking in 2008 (N=44) encompassed EU, SEE and Central Asian economies.
Expenditure on research and development (R&D) in the SEE CountryGross domestic expenditure on research and development relative to GDP (%) 2000200120022003200420052006 EU-271.861.871.881.871.831.84 Croatia1.231.071.11 1.221.010.87 The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 0.440.320.260.230.25 : Turkey0.640.720.660.610.670.790.76 Montenegro0.850.75 0.801.02:: Source: Pocketbook on candidate and potential candidate countries, 2009 edition. EUROSTAT Lack of comparable data!
Croatia – priorities and experiences in regional co-operation Synergy of participation in numerous regional initiatives (SEE, Mediterranean, Danube region) Transformation from aid recipient into the aid supporter Support to coordinated and focused joint activities in different areas Initiative
Croatias participation in regional co-operation initiatives RCC –Trans regional projects: South-East European Firefighting Centre – SEEFRC, Public-private Partnership co-operation network in SEE Trade integration – CEFTA 2006 Central European Initiative (CEI) –Intraregional and cross-border project based cooperation: turism, culture, environment protection, human resurces development, SMS Adriatic Ionian Intiative –Promoting regional tourism, maritime management, environment protection, SMS –Establishing new EU Adriatic-Ionian macro region Danube Cooperation Process, Danube Commission –Navigational, transport and socio-economic regional co-operation aspects Migration, Asylum and Refugees Regional Initiative – MARRI Energy Community Treaty Other…
Role of EU Accession in regional cooperation and recovery EU accession perspective helped to retain confidence in WB economies EU accession related reforms crucial in the recovery proces: –competitiveness, trade, investment, business climate, structural reforms Regional cooperation complementary to EU integration Danger of delayed accession!
EU accession forecast or other time frame (?) SAA signed EU Negotiations Potential EU accession Croatia200120052011 / 12 Island(EEA,1994) Schengen 20102011/12 Macedonia200120092014 Albania200620102015 Bosnia and Herzegovina20072011After 2015 Montenegro200720102015 Serbia20082011After 2015 KosovoAfter 2015 Turkey(1963 apl)20052015-2010
EU accession as a challenge for regional cooperation Joint efforts in solving problems: cross-cutting issues –Rule of law, judiciary, fight against corruption, organised crime, strengthening capacities –Bilateral issues easier to solve through regional cooperation Accession generates regional cooperation –Exchange of knowledge and experince – Protocols on cooperation between SAP countries Establishing visa free regime –people to people contacts are the basis for regional cooperation
Europe 2020 Western Balkans 2020? Europe 2020 –Creating values based on growth and knowledge –Enpowering people in inclusive societies –Creating competitive, sonnected and greener economy Global and regional context? –Western Balkans 2020