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Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 Met Office seasonal predictions and applications Richard Graham Chris Gordon, Matt Huddleston, Mike Davey, Alberto Arribas, Bernd Becker, Anca Brookshaw, Andrew Colman, Stephen Cusack, Margaret Gordon, Bruce Ingleby, Peter McLean (Adam Scaife, Malcolm Macvean) ECWMF Forecast Users Meeting, 16 June 2006
Page 2© Crown copyright 2005 Outline Met Office systems & basic products Europe/UK winter 2005/06 (first major operational UK seasonal forecast statement) Accounting for climate trends in forecasts and their communication If time: forecasts for Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
Page 3© Crown copyright 2005 Global prediction: Dynamical Seasonal forecasting system : GloSea Enhanced version of the Hadley Centre Climate model HadCM3 AGCM: 2.5° x 3.75° x 19L OGCM: (1.25° to 0.3°) x 1.25° x 40L 41-member ocean-atmosphere global forecast ensemble run to 6 months ahead from initial conditions on 1 st of each month 5 ocean analyses from perturbed wind stresses Ocean analyses further perturbed with instantaneous SST perturbations hindcast (BACKRUN) period, 1987-present ( calibration) run at ECMWF as part of developing European multi-model – EURO-SIP Ocean Analysis - 5 member ensemble Real - Time Forecast 41 member ensemble Atmosphere NWP/re- analyses 15 member
Page 4© Crown copyright 2005 Example website products for GloSea & EURO-SIP Latest (May) GloSea ensemble forecast for tropical Pacific (Niño3.4) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Products available at: P(above) P(avge) P(below) Global JJA temperature probability (tercile categories) JJA temperature probability – extremes (outer-quintile categories) GloSea EURO-SIP P(well-below) P(well-above)
Page 5© Crown copyright 2005 Statistical forecasts for specific regions – based on historical SST anomaly relationships winter NAO Used in objective and subjective combination with GloSea model output
Page 6© Crown copyright 2005 winter 2005/6 forecast 2005/6
Page 7© Crown copyright 2005 Met Office winter forecast 2005/6 A two in three chance of a colder-than-average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK – especially southern regions – are expected to have temperatures below normal There is also an indication for a drier-than-average winter over much of the UK. Observed temperature anomalies DJF 2005/6 Customers: public government (Cabinet office) planners in utilities, transport, finance & insurance, defence, aviation, local authorities biggest story ever run by Met Office press office 71% of public aware, 14% took action
Page 8© Crown copyright 2005 NAO statistical/empirical forecast, winter 2005/06 NAO index: difference between normalised pressure anomaly Azores - Iceland N. Atlantic May SST anomaly associated with +ve NAO N. Atlantic May SST anomaly 2005 Predicts correct sign in 2 out of 3 winters
Page 9© Crown copyright 2005 Met Office decadal prediction system (DePreSys) DJF forecast from June 2005
Page 10© Crown copyright 2005 GloSea & HadAM3 skill and response average DJF hindcast skill (ROC) courtesy W. Norton Model skill/response HadAM3 response to idealised (May05-like) forcing
Page 11© Crown copyright 2005 GloSea predictions: Temperature forecast for DJF. Ensemble mean relative to climatology OSTIA anomaly climatology From September From November From October
Page 12© Crown copyright 2005 GloSea: 500 hPa forecast for DJF – Ensemble mean NCEP Analysis From SeptemberFrom October From November M DAMM M Model ~ 40% observed
Page 13© Crown copyright 2005 Precipitation winter 05/06: …some indication of drier- than-average average DJF hindcast skill (ROC) GloSea prediction from Sep05 Most-likely precipitation category, DJF05/06 Observed precip anomalies DJF05/06 (IRI)
Page 14© Crown copyright 2005 Meteo-France ECMWFMet Office (GloSea) EURO-SIP: probability of lower temperature tercile category: NDJ 2005 (from September) Forecast is made available on the 15th of each month. EURO-SIP multi-model
Page 15© Crown copyright 2005 Monitoring the forecast – ocean temperatures May 2005October 2005 August 2005 Below the surface 60-90m October 2005
Page 16© Crown copyright 2005 Monitoring the forecast January 1996 January 2006 Gulf Stream region Sub-tropical region Note impact of ARGO array South of Newfoundland region 0m 100m 50m May Dec 150m
Page 17© Crown copyright 2005 The forecast process This forecast is produced using a combination of statistical models and complex climate models with interpretation by operational forecasters. Dynamical forecasting models Analysis of current ocean observations Statistical forecasting model Analysis of climate trends Skill assessed by past performance of the forecast methods Monthly conference of experts (forecasting, research & comms staff) (Met Office,EURO-SIP) Research studies (e.g. PREDICATE, COAPEC) What other forecasts are saying
Page 18© Crown copyright 2005 Summary The statistical forecast suggested colder than average winter (it was supported by the experimental decadal forecast system). GloSea September and October forecasts suggested cold conditions over Europe. GloSea forecast the SST tripole and geopotential height patterns consistent with a negative NAO situation – but the signal is weak ~ 40% of observed amplitude (as expected). Real time analysis of sub-surface ocean temperatures supported the re-emergence of tripole SST anomalies in winter. This was closely (weekly) monitored to see if the forecast was on track. Expert interpretation (by research and forecast staff) was used to draw all this together into the headline forecast and to subsequently decide if the forecast should be revised.
Page 19© Crown copyright 2005 Accounting for climate trends & Communication issues
Page 20© Crown copyright 2005 Some press (over)reaction The how cold is cold? issue 27 th October st October 2005
Page 21© Crown copyright 2005 Choice of climatology determines the forecast message! Statistical forecast for summer 2006 relative to 3 climatologies Relative to (CGCM hindcast period) Most likely cold Relative to Most likely average Relative to Most likely average
Page 22© Crown copyright 2005 Winter (DJF) 2005/6 forecast re-stated: forecast probabilities for Southern England, from Sept 1962/ / / / / /851989/90 (4.72 ºC) ºC/year 1975 on, ºC/year before 1975 Climate 1915 to /06 Skill-calibrated combination of predicted NAO index and GloSea 2m temperature
Page 23© Crown copyright 2005 Concluding remarks Advice was favourably received by UK government – raised profile of SF Met Office now contracted for routine operational seasonal forecast briefings to Cabinet Office …and to Environment Agency re drought in SE UK. transfer of operational tasks from Research to Operations Centre Need pull-through of existing understanding to improve CGCMs new post focused on improving European skill, also NERC knowledge transfer post ENSEMBLES project comparison of decadal and seasonal models Improve communication being developed for next winter how cold is cold? based on feedback (in part from April RMS meeting) issue more detailed probability information avoid confusion caused by displaying component forecasts on the website (NAO and GloSea output) consolidated forecast maps (combining forecasts) Hindcasts do not give full skill picture – need to know how the models perform under different modes of forcing this impacts on model calibration/combining strategies Need ways of accounting for climate trend in the preparation and communication of the forecast
Page 24© Crown copyright 2005 Forecasts for Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forums
Page 25© Crown copyright 2005 West Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum for precipitation JAS 2005 CGCM large-scale quality sufficient for downscaling? ability of downscaling to improve regional skill? benefits of dynamical Vs statistical methods? GloSea skill 2m leadGloSea probabilitiesRCOF forecast wet dry avge Observed (IRI) Verification
Page 26© Crown copyright 2005 Operational forecasts for 2005 Applications: water volume inflow, lake Volta: learning to use in decision making Akosombo dam: 1000MWatt Hydro-plant Limit of catchment Lake Volta Low inflow forecasts viewed with caution Real-time forecasts Corr=0.69 June issue forecasts of Jul-Oct inflow forecast verification Regression:GloSea+statistical+ catchment observations
Page 27© Crown copyright 2005 GPC forecasts for OND available for GHACOF16, the published consensus, the verification Observed OND precipitation anomalies GloSea Euro-SIP ECMWF IRI Published Consensus (SOND)
Page 28© Crown copyright 2005 Additional slides
Page 29© Crown copyright 2005 Accounting for climate trends in seasonal forecasts: Japan December 2005 Figure from Koichi Kurihara, JMA
Page 30© Crown copyright 2005 Use of hindcasts: calibration can dilute CGCM signal relevant to the current forecast situation Reliability for outer-quintile temperature categories, northern exttratropics Resolution ability to detect outer- quintile temperature events Raw GloSea ensemble Calibrated using hindcast performance
Page 31© Crown copyright 2005 Precip: JJA Skill at 1 month lead: ROC scores based on hindcasts Upper tercile categoryUpper quintile category Temp: MAM
Page 32© Crown copyright 2005 User requirement for regional detail: Example: observed regional impact of negative NAO Average number of days with mean temperature < 0°C 10 winters with –ve NAO, 1970/1 – 2000/1 9 winters since 1995/96 Based on station observations more cold days in all districts (factor 3 to 8) increase largest in south and west When –ve NAO is observed
Page 33© Crown copyright 2005 User requirement for regional detail Average number of days with mean temperature < 0°C 10 winters with –ve NAO, 1970/1 – 2000/1 9 winters since 1995/96 When –ve NAO is forecast more cold days in all districts (factor 2 to 5) increase largest in south and west
Page 34© Crown copyright 2005 Inputs: Underpinning scientific understanding From Warwick Norton (Reading Uni): HadAM3 forcing experiments Solid contours are significant at 95% Rossby wave train over Atlantic, ridge over northern Europe gives cold temps.
Page 35© Crown copyright 2005 Previous Dec-Jan with strong Atlantic dipole SST pattern (9 years) Solid contours are significant at 95%
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 Seasonal forecasting activities at the Met Office Long-range Forecasting Group, Hadley Centre Presenter: Richard Graham ECMWF.
Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting June 2005.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 A Review of UK Met Office Seasonal forecasts for Europe (1-8 months ahead) Andrew Colman, Richard Graham Met Office Hadley.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Extended range forecasts at MeteoSwiss: User experience.
© Crown copyright Met Office Andrew Colman presentation to EuroBrisa Workshop July Met Office combined statistical and dynamical forecasts for.
THOR Annual Meeting - Bergen 9-11 November /25 On the impact of initial conditions relative to external forcing on the skill of decadal predictions:
1 NCAS SMA presentation 14/15 September 2004 The August 2002 European floods: atmospheric teleconnections and mechanisms Mike Blackburn (1), Brian Hoskins.
© Crown copyright /0653 Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 Presentation to ECMWF Forecast Product User Meeting 16th June 2005.
How Well Forecast Were the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic and U.S. Hurricane Seasons? Mark Saunders and Adam Lea Department of Space and Climate Physics Benfield.
© Crown copyright 2007 Forecasting weeks to months ahead Dr. Alberto Arribas Monthly-to-Decadal area, Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter, April 2014.
Model and Relationships 6 M 1 M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
User meeting June Monthly and Seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti and the Seasonal Forecast Section User meeting June 2006.
The European flooding of summer 2002 and its global connections Mike Blackburn, Brian Hoskins, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo Centre for Global Atmospheric.
User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK.
UNITED NATIONS Shipment Details Report – January 2006.
Review of Northern Winter 2010/11 Mike Blackburn National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading Seasonal Climate Discussion 15 April 2011.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 ECMWF Forecast Products Users Meeting 15th June 2006.
Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency Developments for Climate Services at Japan Meteorological Agency 1.
ECMWF Forecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts Severe Weather Forecasts Ervin Zsoter.
1 RA I Sub-Regional Training Seminar on CLIMAT&CLIMAT TEMP Reporting Casablanca, Morocco, 20 – 22 December 2005 Status of observing programmes in RA I.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – current and future state ENSO phase composites for upcoming winter temperature precipitation Climate Prediction.
McDonald’s calendar 2009 January
Scott's Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.
Seasonal Outlook for 2010 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall D. S. Pai Director, Long Range Forecasting South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF -1) April.
ECMWF Slide 1Met Op training course – Reading, March 2004 Forecast verification: probabilistic aspects Anna Ghelli, ECMWF.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LAMEPS – Limited area ensemble forecasting in Norway, using targeted EPS Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner,
Links of the Mediterranean Oscillation to mid-latitude and tropical climate dynamics Jucundus Jacobeit, Stephanie Seubert, Armin Dünkeloh University of.
FOCRAII-9, Beijing 10 th April 2013 © ECMWF ECMWF long range forecast systems Dr. Tim Stockdale European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
LRF Training, Belgrade 13 th - 16 th November 2013 © ECMWF Sources of predictability and error in ECMWF long range forecasts Tim Stockdale European Centre.
Droughts in Canada: An Overview Barrie Bonsal Environment Canada Saskatoon, SK, Canada.
NOAAs Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks By Dr. Gerry Bell Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/NWS Hurricanes: Science and.
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop National Weather Service 1 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Jim Noel Senior Hydrologist.
Page 1 © Crown copyright 2005 ECMWF User Meeting, June 2006 Developments in the Use of Short and Medium-Range Ensembles at the Met Office Ken Mylne.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 WP5.3 Assessment of Forecast Quality ENSEMBLES RT4/RT5 Kick Off Meeting, Paris, Feb 2005 Richard Graham.
ECMWF products and the European energy markets ECMWF, Reading, 16 th of June 2005 Stefan Meulemans Sempra Energy Europe Ltd. London.
User experience with extended range forecasts -- climatic aspects of ECMWF products Christof Appenzeller Wolfgang Müller Heike Kunz Mark Liniger ERA-40.
Page 1© Crown copyright 2006 Matt Huddleston With thanks to: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Ruth McDonald & Met Office Seasonal forecasting team 14 th March.
Seasonal to decadal prediction of the Arctic Oscillation D. Smith, A. Scaife, A. Arribas, E. Blockley, A. Brookshaw, R.T. Clark, N. Dunstone, R. Eade,
1 Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Vancouver, WA October.
PSSA Preparation. Question 1(no calculator) D Question 2 (no calculator)
The role of the stratosphere in extended- range forecasting Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Germany.
Januar 2005 S M T O T F L
Use of linear discriminant methods for calibration of seasonal probability forecasts Andrew Colman, Richard Graham. © Crown copyright /0145 Met.
1 03/0045a © Crown copyright Evaluating water vapour in HadAM3 with 20 years of satellite data Richard P. Allan Mark A. Ringer Met Office, Hadley Centre.
1 Using one or more of your senses to gather information.
© Crown copyright 2007 A fully resolved stratosphere: Impact on seasonal forecasting Alberto Arribas Monthly-to-Decadal area, Met Office Hadley Centre.
©Brooks/Cole, 2001 Chapter 12 Derived Types-- Enumerated, Structure and Union.
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