Presentation on theme: "Commercial services A few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.no ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006 Head of Meteorology and."— Presentation transcript:
1Commercial servicesA few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.noECMWF Product Users MeetingReading June 14-16, 2006Head of Meteorology and Research Erik HagemarkProject meteorologist media Niklas B.Sondell
2Presentation overview Commercial services – who are we?Innovative use of ECWMF-products:Maritime operations planning tool ”MOP”, based on 10-day forecasts from EC-op and EC EPS3 week forecasts, based mainly on the Monthly Forecasting System.
3Commercial services – who are we? Leading service provider in Norway.Strong position within the maritime, media, transportation and energy markets.Specialists in product development/value addMeteorologists, programmers and salesstaff.’Separated’ from the official duties of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.Profitable, no subsidies.
4Commercial services – who are we? We pay the max price to ECMWF (EUR )Currently 34 employees, and growing
6Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP” An interactive web-based tool for combining operations criteria and weather data.The program can be run in 2 modesHindcast mode using statisticsForecast mode using ECMWF-data (op and EPS)Suitable for riggmoves, maintenance, supply logistics and survey and so on…
8”MOP” - descriptionHighly advanced tool with an interactive interface in which the user can enter and alter:weather dependent criteriatype and duration of operationsvessels involvedOutput is given asAverage waiting timeTotal completion timePlot of cummulative probability
9Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP” Main window (edit mode)
10”MOP” – output examples Average waiting time (hindcast mode)
11”MOP” – output examples Average waiting time (forecast mode)
12Commercial servicesA 3-week forecast using the ECMWF Monthly Forecasting SystemECMWF Product Users MeetingReading June 14-16, 2006
133-week forecastsFirst issued late Nov 2005, operational from March 2006Derived from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast SystemThe last week (week 4) is not included due to low skillUpdated weeklySeveral languages available
143-week forecasts - description Main focus on weather regimes, and when regimes are changing.Hovmoeller Diagram and Weather Regime Clusterisation.In many cases we adapt the anomalies to better fit the weather regime.The anomalies derived directly from the model are not always accurate because of the coarse resolution in the model.The forecast is also used by the forecaster as an input in our 10 day forecast issued daily.
153-week forecasts - verification March 2006 to date, showing precipitation and temperature.Proven skill in forecasting colder/warmer and drier/wetter than normal.Low skill in forecasting the exact anomaly.
163-week forecasts and energy trading Powerful tool when applied in connection with energy tradingProven skill when compared to forward contracts at NordpoolMax return on the 8th trading dayUsed: forwards for the middle-kWh-price, third quarter 2006
17Thank you!! Visit us at: www.marked.met.no Correspondance: