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Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Commercial services A few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.no ECMWF Product.

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Presentation on theme: "Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Commercial services A few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.no ECMWF Product."— Presentation transcript:

1 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Commercial services A few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.no ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006 Head of Meteorology and Research Erik Hagemark Project meteorologist media Niklas B.Sondell

2 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Presentation overview Commercial services – who are we? Innovative use of ECWMF-products: –Maritime operations planning tool MOP, based on 10-day forecasts from EC-op and EC EPS –3 week forecasts, based mainly on the Monthly Forecasting System.

3 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Commercial services – who are we? –Leading service provider in Norway. –Strong position within the maritime, media, transportation and energy markets. –Specialists in product development/value add –Meteorologists, programmers and salesstaff. –Separated from the official duties of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. –Profitable, no subsidies.

4 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Commercial services – who are we? –We pay the max price to ECMWF (EUR ) –Currently 34 employees, and growing Head of Market Division Jostein Mælan Sales and marketing Arne Kristensen 8 sales and marketing Product development Jørgen Repshus 3 graphic designers 6 experts in programming Meteorology/oceanography Erik Hagemark 12 forecasters/meteorologists 1 scientist 3 consultant forecasters MET.NO Director Anton Eliassen

5 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no A Marine Operations Planning tool MOP ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006 Commercial services

6 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no An interactive web-based tool for combining operations criteria and weather data. The program can be run in 2 modes –Hindcast mode using statistics –Forecast mode using ECMWF-data (op and EPS) Suitable for riggmoves, maintenance, supply logistics and survey and so on… Marine operations planning tool – MOP

7 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Hindcast data EPS data MARSIM GUI User defines operation Results: wait time/completion time Program Marine operations planning tool – MOP Courtesy Dr.A.K Magnusson, marked.met.no

8 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no MOP - description Highly advanced tool with an interactive interface in which the user can enter and alter: –weather dependent criteria –type and duration of operations –vessels involved Output is given as 1.Average waiting time 2.Total completion time 3.Plot of cummulative probability

9 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Marine operations planning tool – MOP Main window (edit mode)

10 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no MOP – output examples Average waiting time (hindcast mode)

11 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no MOP – output examples Average waiting time (forecast mode)

12 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no A 3-week forecast using the ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System ECMWF Product Users Meeting Reading June 14-16, 2006 Commercial services

13 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no 3-week forecasts First issued late Nov 2005, operational from March 2006 Derived from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System The last week (week 4) is not included due to low skill Updated weekly Several languages available

14 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no 3-week forecasts - description Main focus on weather regimes, and when regimes are changing. –Hovmoeller Diagram and Weather Regime Clusterisation. –In many cases we adapt the anomalies to better fit the weather regime. The anomalies derived directly from the model are not always accurate because of the coarse resolution in the model. The forecast is also used by the forecaster as an input in our 10 day forecast issued daily.

15 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no 3-week forecasts - verification March 2006 to date, showing precipitation and temperature. Proven skill in forecasting colder/warmer and drier/wetter than normal. Low skill in forecasting the exact anomaly.

16 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no 3-week forecasts and energy trading Powerful tool when applied in connection with energy trading Proven skill when compared to forward contracts at Nordpool Max return on the 8th trading day Used: forwards for the middle-kWh-price, third quarter 2006

17 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Market Division. marked.met.no Thank you!! Visit us at: Correspondance:


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