Presentation on theme: "Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Ferenc Wantuch."— Presentation transcript:
Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Use and evaluation of medium-range forecast at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Ferenc Wantuch Hungarian Meteorological Service Kitaibel P. u. 1. H-1024 Budapest E-mail:email@example.com
Talk outline Introduction Verification Two interesting case studies New products based on ECMWF.
Data flow and structure NWP data source: File format: GRIB BUFR Visualisation Netcdf file format Code generalisation process
NWPoutput Code generalisation by the help of different method (PP, MOS) visibility forecast, max, min temperatures cloudiness,... Forecast text generator program End users Text and data Control Verification Forecasteroutput
Verification A Complex Score was defined. 100%0% Min/Max temperatureRMSE0 °C8 °C Precip. ExistencePC100%0% Precip. AmountMAE0 kateg.1.6 kateg. Average Wind SpeedRMSE0 m/s6 m/s Wind GustRMSE0 m/s10 m/s Cloud CoverRMSE0 okta6 okta Complex Score-100 %0 % Weight Temperature 25+25% Precipitation 22,5% Wind 10% Cloud Cover 17,5% 10 4 6 17,5 25 12,5 0 5 10 15 20 25 TminTmaxP.ExistP.AmountyÁv.WindlWind gustCloud Covert %
Complex Score for the first day 2000. júl – 2004. dec. (Country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Synoptic 2000. second period: changes in ECMWF algorithm + model upgrade: 60 => 40 km) 2003. Feb.: Anticyclon with snow surface, ALADIN is unsuccesfull 2004. December cold air pad
Minimum Temperature sesonal ME and RMSE (2001 – 2004 Hungary mean) ME: seasonal RMSE: slowly decrease EC + Forecaster:
Complex Score for the first day in 2004-ben (country mean) ALADIN ECMWF Forecaster ~30%-correction in (cold air pad) inversion situation
Case study I. : Inversion and cold air pad. (2004. December ) Stratus (cloud base 200-400 m, surface temperature –1, -3 C Tops of mountains are clear MSG comp321 sat. picture. 12.12. 12 2004 UTC and observations ECMWF model forecast. 12 UTC-re dec.12 2004 The last ECMWF prediction. 100 20 SKC is predicted
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