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© Crown copyright Met Office WAFC CAT verification Objective verification of GRIB CAT forecasts Dr Philip G Gill, WAFC Science Meeting, Washington, 20 April 2009
© Crown copyright Met Office Contents This presentation covers the following areas Introduction SIGWX forecast comparison Aircraft data Verification methodology Verification results Summary Further improvements
© Crown copyright Met Office Introduction What – Objective verification of gridded binary (GRIB) and significant weather (SIGWX) Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) forecasts Where – Global verification When – November 2008 to January 2009 Why – To demonstrate the quality of the new GRIB forecasts using objective verification. How – Verification against aircraft observations from the Global Aircraft Data Set (GADS)
© Crown copyright Met Office SIGWX and GRIB CAT forecasts SIGWX chart New GRIB forecast
© Crown copyright Met Office Comparison of SIGWX charts UKUSUK&US
© Crown copyright Met Office SIGWX CAT forecast comparison One month UK-US comparison (January 2009) Average coverage of globe UK ~6%, US ~3% Percentage overlap of all forecasts between UK and US ~20% Areas forecast by both UK and US Areas forecast by UK but not USAreas forecast by US but not UK
© Crown copyright Met Office GRIB forecast comparison produced by HKO
© Crown copyright Met Office Global Aircraft Data Set Archive of aircraft data set up by Joel Tenenbaum (State University of New York) British Airways fleet of Boeing 747-400 aircraft Global coverage, but flights mainly over northern hemisphere Automated aircraft observations every 4 seconds Indicator of turbulence derived from vertical acceleration, aircraft mass, altitude and airspeed called the derived equivalent vertical gust (DEVG).
© Crown copyright Met Office GADS Data coverage 10-19 January 2007
© Crown copyright Met Office Verification methodology
© Crown copyright Met Office Forecast assessment Turbulent/non turbulent event defined on 10min aircraft track ~120km - approx grid size Forecast turbulent event – CAT potential >= Threshold Observed turbulent event - DEVG>=2m/s Construct 2x2 contingency tables for each threshold Sum entries in contingency tables over the verification period Produce a Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve by plotting the Hit rate against False alarm rate for each threshold. Turbulence observed No turbulence observed Turbulence forecast HitFalse alarm No turbulence forecast MissCorrect rejection 2x2 contingency table
© Crown copyright Met Office Results UK GRIB and SIGWX ~ 300 000 events
© Crown copyright Met Office Variation with forecast range ~100 000 events
© Crown copyright Met Office Latitudinal variation UK GRIB 50N to 90N ~120 000 events 50S to 20S ~8 000 events 20N to 50N ~130 000 events 20S to 20N ~37 000 events
© Crown copyright Met Office UK and US Nov 2008 and Jan 2009 ROC curve ~200 000 events
© Crown copyright Met Office UK and US latitudinal variation ~60 000 events
© Crown copyright Met Office UK GRIB and SIGWX ~300 000 events SIGWX Automation (SWAM) - UK automated SIGWX chart production system based on GRIB data
© Crown copyright Met Office Summary of results Both UK and US GRIB products show more skill than the manual SIGWX products. Global UK and US GRIB CAT forecasts score similarly Slight difference in scores as forecast range increases Some differences in scores at individual latitude bands – best performance between 20N and 90N. UK CAT coverage on SIGWX charts greater than the US
© Crown copyright Met Office Further improvements Automate verification process Produce statistics by ICAO and WMO regions Improve consistency of forecasts by analysing verification data and altering production systems. Use verification to test future model upgrades and re- tune algorithms
© Crown copyright Met Office Questions and answers
© Crown copyright Met Office WAFC CAT verification Objective verification of GRIB CAT forecasts Dr Philip G Gill, WAFS Workshop on the use and visualisation.
© Crown copyright Met Office WAFC turbulence and Cb hazard verification Recent results and future plans Dr Philip G Gill WAFSOPSG 7/14, 30 th April 2013.
© Crown copyright Met Office Probabilistic turbulence forecasts from ensemble models and verification Philip Gill and Piers Buchanan NCAR Aviation Turbulence.
© Crown copyright Met Office Verification of forecasts of Cbs Bob Lunnon, Aviation Outcomes Manager, Met Office WAFS Science meeting, Washington, April.
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GRIB Visualization of data
Verification has been undertaken for the 3 month Summer period (30/05/12 – 06/09/12) using forecasts and observations at all 205 UK civil and defence aerodromes.
Verification of WAFS Global Icing Products Jennifer Mahoney 1 and Sean Madine 1,2 1 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory 2 Cooperative Institute for Research.
1) Verification of individual predictors Development of improved turbulence forecasts for aviation Debi Turp © Crown copyright Met Office and the Met Office.
© Crown copyright Met Office Use of GRIB hazard forecasts in flight planning Bob Lunnon, Aviation Outcomes Manager, Met Office WAFS Science meeting, Washington,
Page 1© Crown copyright 2005 Met Office Verification -status Clive Wilson, Presented by Mike Bush at EWGLAM Meeting October 8- 11, 2007.
© Crown copyright Met Office Scientific background and content of new gridded products Bob Lunnon, Aviation Outcomes Manager, Met Office WAFS Workshop.
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WMS-IV Wechsler Memory Scale - Fourth Edition
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Robin Hogan Ewan OConnor University of Reading, UK What is the half-life of a cloud forecast?
© Crown copyright Met Office GA Met provision, UK Met Office Jonathan Dutton, Operations Centre, Met Office, UK.
April 24, 2007 Nihat Cubukcu Utilization of Numerical Weather Forecast in Energy Sector.
© Crown copyright Met Office Regional Temperature and Precipitation changes under high- end global warming Michael Sanderson, Deborah Hemming, Richard.
Verification of Probabilistic Forecast J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie S. Mason - IRI.
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Page 1© Crown copyright Modelling the stable boundary layer and the role of land surface heterogeneity Anne McCabe, Bob Beare, Andy Brown EMS 2005.
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Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 The use of an intensity-scale technique for assessing operational mesoscale precipitation forecasts Marion Mittermaier and.
© Crown copyright Met Office Operational OpenRoad verification Presented by Robert Coulson.
© Crown copyright Met Office Andrew Colman presentation to EuroBrisa Workshop July Met Office combined statistical and dynamical forecasts for.
Translating verification experience from meteorology to space weather Suzy Bingham ESWW splinter session, Thurs. 20 th Nov.
© Crown copyright Met Office Plans for Met Office contribution to SMOS+STORM Evolution James Cotton & Pete Francis, Satellite Applications, Met Office,
© Crown copyright Met Office Space Weather Mr John Hirst, Permanent Representative of the UK to WMO 17 th May 2011.
Slide 1ECMWF forecast products users meeting – Reading, June 2005 Verification of weather parameters Anna Ghelli, ECMWF.
Long-Term Stratospheric Temperature Time Series for SPARC Temperature Trends Assessment Paper Dian Seidel April 2007 Tabard Inn, Washington DC.
An Introduction to PRECIS
History of IATA requirements for gridded ICE, TURB and CB Cloud Products.
© Crown copyright Met Office Forecasting Icing for Aviation: Some thoughts for discussion Cyril Morcrette Presented remotely to Technical Infra-structure.
COROBOR designs software for Aviation & Meteorology for 16 years.
© Crown copyright Met Office Verifying modelled currents using a threshold exceedance approach Dr Ray Mahdon An exploration of the Gerrity Skill Score.
FAA International Activities
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Quantitative precipitation forecast in the Alps Verification.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LAMEPS – Limited area ensemble forecasting in Norway, using targeted EPS Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner,
Performance of the MOGREPS Regional Ensemble
The Benefit of Improved GOES Products in the NWS Forecast Offices Greg Mandt National Weather Service Director of the Office of Climate, Water, and Weather.
TOULOUSE (FRANCE), 5-9 September 2005 OBJECTIVE VERIFICATION OF A RADAR-BASED OPERATIONAL TOOL FOR IDENTIFICATION OF HAILSTORMS I. San Ambrosio, F. Elizaga.
© Crown copyright Met Office Improving forecasting of disruption due to convection within UK airspace Paul Maisey and Katie Brown ECAM, European Meteorological.
Gridded OCF Probabilistic Forecasting For Australia For more information please contact © Commonwealth of Australia 2011 Shaun Cooper.
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